Areal Flood Warning 3, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
710 PM CDT Sun May 6 2012

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

Short Term (Tonight - Tuesday)...

All the significant weather will be confined to tonight with some
spill-over of residual showers into Monday morning. Morning/early
afternoon convection which formed along an dissipating outflow
boundary has either dissipated or moved into east central MO leaving
behind an airmass that is quickly recovering and destabilizing. The
synoptic cold front has become better defined and extends from just
east of DMX through around STJ to a low north of Enid, OK. Most
convective and short range models rapidly develop convection along
this boundary this afternoon/very early evening and track it through
the CWA. While the airmass is highly unstable as evidenced by
MUCAPEs in the 3000-4000 J/kg range, 0-6km bulk shear of less than
20kts will provide meager support for rotating updrafts. This is
more of an early summer airmass which is conducive to pulse like
storms initially. Primary severe threats will be potential for very
large hail, damaging downburst winds, very heavy rainfall and a
bunch of lightning. If the multicell clusters can merge into larger
systems then a cold pool could take over and result in short bowing
line segments producing straight-line wind damage. Any tornadic
threat will likely be short-loved and tied to colliding boundaries.

Scattered post-frontal convection is likely as the highly unstable
and very moist airmass advects over the shallow surface boundary
resulting in elevated convection. Some question as to how long into
Monday morning the isentropic ascent will support precipitation. 12Z
NAM suggests light rain/drizzle could last through mid morning north
of the MO River. However, all other models are faster.

Much cooler/drier air will filter into the CWA on Monday and for
most of next week with near seasonal temperatures. Models have been
very consistent with this message for several days and see no reason
to deviate.

MJ

Wednesday - Saturday:

Surface high pressure will prevail across the entire region into
Thursday when it moves east of the forecast area and shifts winds
back to the south. Through Thursday, this high pressure should
preclude any precipitation chances. This will also keep temperatures
in check with highs generally around seasonal normals, in the low to
mid 70s with lows in the middle to upper 40s Thursday morning and
low to mid 50s for Friday morning. With winds becoming southerly by
the end of week, temperatures will start to moderate and highs
Friday will return to the mid to upper 70s. By Friday night, an
upper wave will track across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest
sending another front southward into the area. This will bring our
next decent shot of precipitation to the forecast area starting
Friday night and continuing into at least Saturday. There is some
discrepancy regarding coverage by the end of the weekend so have
limited POPs to the low chance range. The increased cloud cover,
precipitation chances and frontal passage should keep temperatures
close to normal again for Saturday.

CDB

&&

.AVIATION...

For the 00Z TAFs, scattered thunderstorms, a few of them severe, will
continue over the next 2-4 hours. The thunderstorms will lead to
periods of at least MVFR ceilings and visibilities due to the heavy
rains associated with them. Ceilings and visibilities may temporarily
fall to IFR within the heaviest storms. The storms are expected to
come to end from northwest to southeast as a cold front moves through
later tonight. However showers and more isolated storms are possible
through much of the night. For now, will keep TSRA mention through
04Z and transition to more vicinity stuff after that. Ceilings may
become MVFR after the cold front moves through as cold air advects
into the region from the north. These lower ceilings may lift by mid
to late Monday afternoon.

CDB

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

WFO EAX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
701 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-071130-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
701 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE KANSAS CITY METROPOLITAN AREA...AS WELL AS MUCH OF
NORTHWESTERN THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI. LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINS LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING ARE THE BIGGEST HAZARDS WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS THROUGH
AROUND MIDNIGHT. WHILE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL DIMINISH AFTER
MIDNIGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY STILL BE LINGERING ACROSS PARTS
OF CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI MONDAY MORNING BEFORE EXITING
SOUTHEAST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE THREAT
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS LINGERING ACTIVITY IS LOW.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE NEEDED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.

CDB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
823 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

MOZ032-033-039-040-070200-
CHARITON MO-HOWARD MO-RANDOLPH MO-SALINE MO-
823 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN SALINE...WESTERN
RANDOLPH...NORTHERN HOWARD AND SOUTHERN CHARITON COUNTIES UNTIL 900
PM CDT...

AT 821 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
BRUNSWICK TO SLATER TO 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SLATER...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  GLASGOW...FAYETTE...SALISBURY...BRUNSWICK...KEYTESVILLE...
  ARMSTRONG...DALTON AND CLIFTON HILL.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 3904 9292 3905 9293 3906 9294 3900 9303
      3923 9308 3933 9327 3934 9322 3937 9319
      3939 9320 3941 9317 3938 9314 3938 9312
      3941 9311 3943 9314 3956 9289 3943 9259
      3914 9256
TIME...MOT...LOC 0124Z 242DEG 36KT 3937 9319 3928 9296
          3908 9294

DEROCHE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
839 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

KSZ057-060-070200-
LINN KS-MIAMI KS-
839 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN LINN AND SOUTHEASTERN
MIAMI COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS UNTIL 900 PM CDT...

AT 834 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR FONTANA...OR NEAR LA CYGNE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  NEW LANCASTER.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 3838 9490 3857 9476 3849 9461 3846 9461
      3833 9481
TIME...MOT...LOC 0139Z 216DEG 17KT 3841 9479

DEROCHE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
839 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

KSZ057-070215-
MIAMI KS-
839 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN MIAMI COUNTY UNTIL 915 PM
CDT...

AT 834 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR RANTOUL...OR 8 MILES WEST OF OSAWATOMIE...
MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF WESTERN MIAMI COUNTY.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 3848 9507 3855 9507 3862 9507 3866 9498
      3848 9495
TIME...MOT...LOC 0140Z 260DEG 10KT 3855 9507

DEROCHE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
859 PM CDT SUN MAY 06 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0858 PM     HAIL             5 W OSAWATOMIE          38.50N 95.04W
05/06/2012  E0.88 INCH       MIAMI              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

DDEROCHE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
955 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

MOZ046-070345-
COOPER MO-
955 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN COOPER COUNTY UNTIL 1045
PM CDT...

AT 953 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR OTTERVILLE...OR 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF
TIPTON...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  BUNCETON.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3868 9299 3874 9301 3888 9273 3868 9265
TIME...MOT...LOC 0255Z 252DEG 6KT 3870 9293

DEROCHE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1005 PM CDT SUN MAY 06 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1002 PM     HAIL             MACON                   39.74N 92.47W
05/06/2012  M0.75 INCH       MACON              MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

GAMIS