Special Weather Statement, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
312 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WERE FOUND OVER THE CWA THIS
AFTN... WITH ONE MAIN AREA PUSHING S/E OF KSQI-KMLI LINE ATTENDANT
TO WEAK IMPULSE WHILE THE OTHER MAIN CONCENTRATION OVER FAR
NORTHERN CWA AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT AND WESTERN CWA AHEAD OF
DISTURBANCE WHICH SHOWS UP NICELY ON BOTH WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE
SATL LOOPS DIVING E/SE FROM N IA. STRONGER CELLS ARE GENERATING
SOME GUSTY WINDS 15-30 KTS WITH LOW LEVEL DRY AIR INVERTED V TYPE
SOUNDINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
PCPN EXPECTED TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND
PASSAGE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. DECREASING CLOUDS THEN
EXPECTED WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF DEPARTING
DISTURBANCE... BUT MAY SEE PATCHY TO AREAS OF MID CLOUDS HANG
AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH RESIDUAL H85 MOISTURE AND ENOUGH LIFT
FROM PASSAGE OF WEAK H85 COOL FRONT OR WIND SHIFT... SIMILAR TO
WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT OVER CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN MN. THIS COULD
MAKE FOR A RATHER CHALLENGING LOW TEMP FCST. H85 TEMPS 12Z MON
PRETTY MUCH UNCHANGED FROM THIS AM AND CLOSE TO 10C OR 50F... WHICH
SUPPORTS COOLEST LOWS NEAR TO 3-5 DEGS BELOW THIS OR 45-50F WHERE
SKIES REMAIN CLEAR FOR GREATEST LENGTH... AGAIN SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS
OBSERVED THIS AM. MEANWHILE... LOCATIONS THAT SEE ANY CLOUDS PERSIST
WILL BE HELD UP IN THE RANGE OF 52-57F FOR LOWS.

MON... LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEEING ANY PCPN DURING AFTN GIVEN THE AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR SFC-H85 RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES UPSTREAM OVER N MN INTO
NW WI MOVING SWD. BUT... WITH ANOTHER POCKET OF COLD AIR (-16 TO
-18C) AT H5 ROTATING DOWN INTO NORTHERN IL CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT ISOLD
DVLPMNT MAINLY FAR EAST CWA MID-LATE PM... SO WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHC POPS. OTHERWISE... MORE OF THE SAME FANTASTIC WX FEATURING
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOW
HUMIDITY BENEATH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES.      MCCLURE

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...

FORECAST FOCUS ON WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ALLOWING FOR
WARMER TEMPERATURES BUT THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. THE WARMEST DAY STILL APPEARS TO BE
THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL
INTO THE 80S TO POSSIBLY NEAR 90.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SHORT WAVE PASSES ACROSS THE REGION WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HAVE 30 TO 40 POPS WHICH
MAY NEED TO BE RAISED FURTHER.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND BEYOND...SHORT WAVE PUSHES OFF TO THE
EAST WITH RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT. WILL HAVE SLIGHT POPS BUT LATER
SHIFTS MAY NEED TO REMOVE THEM. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 80S WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S. IF THE ECM IS CORRECT A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THE LAST WEEK OF AUGUST.

HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ATTENDANT POCKET OF COLD AIR ALOFT
DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF MN WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE ISOLD-SCT SHRA
AND TSRA OVER THE AREA THE REST OF THIS AFTN INTO EARLY EVE. HAVE
VCSH/VCTS MENTION AT KCID AND KDBQ FOR NOW WHERE BETTER COVERAGE
EXISTS... BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND AMEND AS
NEEDED. ASIDE FROM THE STRONGER SHRA AND TSRA WHERE MVFR VSBYS
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. LIGHT WINDS AND DECREASING
CLOUDS OVRNGT MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG... BUT POTENTIAL WILL BE
RATHER DEPENDENT ON PCPN COVERAGE THIS AFTN AND THUS NOT INCLUDED
IN FCST.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
332 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2012

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-200845-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
332 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE AREA. IT IT TOO SOON TO DETERMINE THE RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER WITH THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
448 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2012

IAZ042-054-ILZ001-192245-
DUBUQUE-JACKSON-JO DAVIESS-
448 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...

AT 443 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR EAST DUBUQUE...OR 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
DUBUQUE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PENNY
SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS GUST TO 50 MPH.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ST. DONATUS AROUND 500 PM CDT...
  LA MOTTE AROUND 505 PM CDT...
  BELLEVUE AROUND 530 PM CDT...
  SPRINGBROOK AROUND 540 PM CDT...

LAT...LON 4218 9031 4216 9055 4246 9072 4251 9065
TIME...MOT...LOC 2148Z 320DEG 17KT 4240 9060

ERVIN