Special Weather Statement, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
333 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB COLD FRONT FROM NORTHERN WISCONSIN
SOUTHWEST INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. SEVERAL TROFS WERE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND THE 850MB COLD FRONT. RADAR/SATELLITE
TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW DIURNAL CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
FROM SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A FRONT/BOUNDARY FROM KVOK BACK TO KRSL. THIS
BOUNDARY MAY BE A VERY DIFFUSE COLD FRONT AS DEW POINTS QUICKLY
DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT/BOUNDARY DEW POINTS WERE IN THE LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
AN AREA OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG THE FRONT/BOUNDARY HAS
ALLOWED CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE TO BE ACHIEVED.

RAP TRENDS INDICATE THE CURRENT CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ISOLATED
OVER SOUTHEAST IOWA AND MORE SCATTERED FROM THE QUAD CITIES TO THE
NORTH AND EAST. RAP TRENDS INDICATE THIS CONVECTION WILL PERSIST
INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN THE FAR EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA.

THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ACROSS MINNESOTA IS ALLOWING CU TO
DEVELOP FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN IOWA. RADAR SHOWS NO
CONVECTION AS YET BUT WITH PEAK HEATING OCCURRING CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. IF THIS OCCURS...THEN IT MAY
GET INTO THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. NEARLY ALL CONVECTION
SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...
CONVECTION DID PERSIST OVERNIGHT CLOSE TO THE SFC LOW AND UPPER
LOW. THUS IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MAY PERSIST
PAST MIDNIGHT THAT CATCHES THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWFA.

FRIDAY IS LOOKING TO BE QUITE NICE WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO BE LOW.          ..08..

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY TO
KEEP THINGS QUIET BOTH PERIODS.  HOWEVER...SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
A NICE WARM AIR ADVECTION SURGE WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAVE HAD RECENTLY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 BOTH DAYS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT A STRONGER SHORTWAVE COMES ALONG
TO INTERACT WITH A WEAK 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE TO BRING SOME
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA.  THERE IS ROUGH AGREEMENT WITH
THE MODELS...BUT WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES TO ADD SOME CONFUSION.
HIGHS MONDAY TO BEGIN CREEPING UP...RISING INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW
90S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A
SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH IS NOT ESPECIALLY
FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...SO HAVE KEPT THOSE DRY OR AT
MOST SLIGHT CHANCE.  HIGHS REMAIN IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S WITH THE
CONTINUING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND ENOUGH MOISTURE AT MID LEVELS TO
PRODUCE SOME MID CLOUDS.

THURSDAY WE HAVE A WEAK COLD FRONT AND HINTS AT AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...THOUGH MODELS HAVE A LOT OF
DIFFERENCES AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH.  HOWEVER...IT WAS
ENOUGH TO PUT IN TO CARRY SOME LOW END CHANCE POPS.

LE

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION HAS INITIATED ON A FRONT/BOUNDARY FROM NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA. RAP MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST TRSA MAY
AFFECT KMLI/KBRL THROUGH 00Z/27. POST FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 03Z/27 THAT MIGHT AFFECT KCID/KDBQ. AFT 03Z/27
GENERALLY VFR WX IS EXPECTED. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
MVFR VSBYS DVLPG ARND SUNRISE FRIDAY BUT WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE
18Z TAFS.              ..08..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
350 AM CDT THU JUL 26 2012

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-270900-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
350 AM CDT THU JUL 26 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. IT IS
TOO SOON TO DETERMINE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THESE
PERIODS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

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