Special Weather Statement, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
259 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH PROVIDING SOME VERTICAL MOTION COMBINED WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATERS OVER 1.5 INCHES HAS PRODUCED AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION
TODAY. THE BULK OF THE RAIN HAS OCCURRED NEAR AND NORTH OF I-80 WITH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY FARTHER SOUTH. DOPPLER RADAR HAS ESTIMATED
RAINFALL OF NEARLY 2 INCHES IN PORTIONS OF CLINTON... BENTON AND
LINN COUNTIES WITH MANY LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-80 PICKING UP 0.3 TO
0.7 INCHES. THIS AFTERNOON SURFACE BASED STORMS FIRED IN NORTHEAST
MO AND WESTERN IL PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND TORRENTIAL
RAINS WITH SOME LOCATIONS RADAR INDICATING AT LEAST 2 INCHES. PRESSURE
FALLS WERE OCCURRING FROM MN TO MO.

HAASE

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
FORECAST FOCUS ON CONVECTION AND TEMPERATURES.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HAVE 40 TO 50
POPS TO COVER THE SITUATION WITH THE STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND TORRENTIAL RAINS. EVEN THE DRY ECM
IS NOW INDICATING QPF ON SATURDAY AFTER BEING COMPLETELY DRY
TODAY. WITH THE RAIN TODAY DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED WELL INTO THE
60S TO AROUND 70. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
AND MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. THESE
READINGS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED BASED ON COVERAGE OF STORMS AND
CLOUD COVER. IF SOME LOCATIONS CAN PICK UP SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
STORMS THEN SEVERAL INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED. ON THE OTHER HAND THE
SCATTERED NATURE OF THE STORMS MEANS SOME NEIGHBORHOODS MAY REMAIN
DRY.

HAASE

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...
SATURDAY NIGHT BEGINS WITH POTENTIALLY THE LAST FEW HOURS OF
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING WITH THE EXITING TROF. IN ITS WAKE...WEAK
FLOW COULD POSSIBLY RESULT IN SHALLOW GROUND FOG...AND AT LEAST A
HEAVY DEW. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 70S..EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 60S
IN THE NORTH.

FAIRLY HOT WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN HEAT FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. BEYOND THIS...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACTIVITY INCREASES AND
OUR TEMPERATURES TAKE ON A MORE PROBLEMATIC SCENARIO...WHERE WE
COULD BUST SIGNIFICANTLY IF IT IS CLOUDY OR RAINY ON ANY DAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE SPREADS TOWARD THE CWA SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE
FLATTENING AND SHIFTING WEST INTO THE ROCKIES. HIGHS SHOULD MAINLY
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 70S.
WITH DEWPOINTS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...THIS RESULTS IN
HEAT INDEX READINGS REACHING NEAR OR OVER 100 FOR SEVERAL DAYS.  WE
MAY NEED TO HOIST HEAT HEADLINES AS CONFIDENCE ON THIS INCREASES.

THE FRONT ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT...OR POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY...AND SHOULD
BECOME EITHER SLOW MOVING OR STATIONARY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT...ALONG
WITH THE UKMET. WHILE THIS IS FAR FROM CERTAIN...THE PATTERN IS
TYPICAL OF NOCTURNAL MCS POTENTIAL.   ONCE AGAIN...QPF IN MODELS HAS
ABSOLUTELY NOTHING TO DO WITH THIS ASSESSMENT.

ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN IA THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDS BUT MVFR CIGS/VIS IN
TSRA. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...THEN SOUTHWEST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ON SATURDAY.

HAASE

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

HAASE/ERVIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
500 AM CDT FRI JUL 13 2012

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-141000-
BENTON IA-BUCHANAN IA-BUREAU IL-CARROLL IL-CEDAR IA-CLARK MO-
CLINTON IA-DELAWARE IA-DES MOINES IA-DUBUQUE IA-HANCOCK IL-
HENDERSON IL-HENRY IA-HENRY IL-IOWA IA-JACKSON IA-JEFFERSON IA-
JO DAVIESS IL-JOHNSON IA-JONES IA-KEOKUK IA-LEE IA-LINN IA-LOUISA IA-
MCDONOUGH IL-MERCER IL-MUSCATINE IA-PUTNAM IL-ROCK ISLAND IL-
SCOTLAND MO-SCOTT IA-STEPHENSON IL-VAN BUREN IA-WARREN IL-
WASHINGTON IA-WHITESIDE IL-
500 AM CDT FRI JUL 13 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...AND
POSSIBLY AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. CURRENT INFORMATION SUGGESTS NO SEVERE
STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE OUTLOOK AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. CURRENT INDICATIONS
SUGGEST THAT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW DURING THIS TIME.

MORE HOT WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
AT LEAST IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY...MAY
PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100 DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY BUT IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE THE RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
300 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2012

IAZ087-088-098-099-MOZ010-132045-
CLARK-HENRY-JEFFERSON-LEE-VAN BUREN-
300 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2012

...THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL...

AT 254 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CROTON...OR 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
KEOSAUQUA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HILLSBORO AND 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF PILOT GROVE AROUND 330 PM CDT...
  6 MILES NORTHWEST OF ST. PAUL AROUND 335 PM CDT...
  SALEM AROUND 340 PM CDT...
  8 MILES WEST OF LOWELL AROUND 345 PM CDT...

ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 4091 9177 4084 9139 4054 9167 4062 9188
TIME...MOT...LOC 1959Z 206DEG 18KT 4066 9173

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