Special Weather Statement, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
650 AM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012

.UPDATE...
LOW LEVEL JET APPARENTLY HAS VEERED AND STRENGTHENED ENOUGH TO
EXPAND AND INTENSIFY THE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT. DOPPLER RADAR HAS ESTIMATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 2
INCHES SO FAR AND TRAINING OF STORMS WILL ADD TO THE TOTALS.
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL ALSO EXPECTED IN THE STRONGER STORMS.
HAVE ALREADY UPDATED GRIDS TO GO LIKELY POPS FOR AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34. STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN LATER THIS MORNING AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS. THEN STILL EXPECTING STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT LEAST IN
SCATTERED FASHION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE NORTHWARD MOVING WARM
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOCAL MVFR VIS IN BR TIL 14Z THIS MORNING. THEN VFR CONDS THROUGH
TONIGHT EXCEPT MVFR CIGS IN TSRA AS A WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLD -TSRA ARE
POSSIBLE AT/NEAR KBRL THIS MORNING. AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...
SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. VARIABLE OR EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 5 KNOTS
THIS MORNING BECOMING SOUTH AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TONIGHT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

HAASE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
420 AM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-020930-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
420 AM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34 MAY
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL BE LIFTING NORTHWARD AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. DAMAGING WINDS OF AT LEAST 60 TO 70 MPH...FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY BRIEFLY
RISE TO JUST ABOVE 100 THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA AS A WEAK WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY EXCEED 100 DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. KEEP UPDATED ON THIS HOT AND
HUMID WEATHER AS HEAT ADVISORIES...AND POSSIBLY EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNINGS MAY BE NECESSARY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HAASE/LE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
636 AM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012

IAZ099-ILZ025-034-MOZ009-010-011230-
LEE IA-HENDERSON IL-HANCOCK IL-CLARK MO-SCOTLAND MO-
636 AM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...HEAVY RAINS IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WESTERN ILLINOIS...

AT 630 AM CDT DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A PERSISTENT AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST MISSOURI INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS. THE
MAIN AREA OF STORMS WAS LOCATED FROM SCOTLAND COUNTY MISSOURI
EASTWARD TO HANCOCK COUNTY ILLINOIS. DOPPLER RADAR HAS ESTIMATED
RAINFALL OF UP TO 2 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PAST 2 TO 3
HOURS WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.

IN ADDITION...SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP
TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND SMALL
HAIL. IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY
BUILDING.

EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND IN LOW-LYING AREAS.

&&

LAT...LON 4048 9236 4066 9104 4034 9097 4025 9171
      4025 9195 4029 9196 4030 9196 4030 9235

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
701 AM CDT SUN JUL 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0653 AM     HAIL             5 NW KEOSAUQUA          40.79N 92.03W
07/01/2012  E0.25 INCH       VAN BUREN          IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GROSS

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