Severe Thunderstorm Warning 81, NWS Quad Cities, IA

568 
WWUS53 KDVN 050923
SVSDVN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
423 AM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

IAC057-087-101-111-115-163-177-ILC071-073-131-161-187-051015-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0081.000000T0000Z-120905T1015Z/
VAN BUREN IA-SCOTT IA-LOUISA IA-LEE IA-JEFFERSON IA-HENRY IA-
DES MOINES IA-HENRY IL-MERCER IL-ROCK ISLAND IL-WARREN IL-
HENDERSON IL-
423 AM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 AM CDT
FOR HENDERSON...NORTHERN WARREN...SOUTHWESTERN ROCK ISLAND...
MERCER...SOUTHWESTERN HENRY...DES MOINES...HENRY...EASTERN
JEFFERSON...NORTHERN LEE...LOUISA...SOUTH CENTRAL SCOTT AND EASTERN
VAN BUREN COUNTIES...

AT 419 AM CDT...TRAINED SPOTTERS AND DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AROUND 60
MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED APPROXIMATELY ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM PREEMPTION TO LOCKRIDGE...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10
MILES SOUTH OF ROCK ISLAND TO 9 MILES WEST OF MOUNT PLEASANT...MOVING
SOUTH AT 45 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO THE 
QUAD CITIES...ALEDO...BURLINGTON...AND MT PLEASANT.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 IN IOWA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 290 AND 297.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 74 IN IOWA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 5.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 74 IN ILLINOIS BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 2 AND 3.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 280 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 18.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. MOVE IMMEDIATELY INDOORS AND STAY AWAY
FROM WINDOWS.

WIND DAMAGE WILL OCCUR BEFORE THUNDER CAN BE HEARD OR RAIN BEGINS.
SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

PLEASE REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO YOUR LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY FOR RELAY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4116 9184 4116 9149 4130 9149 4135 9137
      4133 9107 4142 9103 4144 9098 4142 9092
      4145 9086 4145 9079 4157 9078 4165 9056
      4115 9022 4114 9043 4095 9044 4066 9083
      4062 9177 4114 9189
TIME...MOT...LOC 0922Z 339DEG 39KT 4132 9054 4093 9171
WIND...HAIL 60MPH <1.00IN

$$

ERVIN

647 
WWUS53 KDVN 050931
SVSDVN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
431 AM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

IAC057-087-101-111-115-163-177-ILC071-073-131-161-187-051015-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0081.000000T0000Z-120905T1015Z/
VAN BUREN IA-SCOTT IA-LOUISA IA-LEE IA-JEFFERSON IA-HENRY IA-
DES MOINES IA-HENRY IL-MERCER IL-ROCK ISLAND IL-WARREN IL-
HENDERSON IL-
431 AM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 AM CDT
FOR HENDERSON...NORTHERN WARREN...SOUTHWESTERN ROCK ISLAND...
MERCER...SOUTHWESTERN HENRY...DES MOINES...HENRY...EASTERN
JEFFERSON...NORTHERN LEE...SOUTHERN LOUISA...SOUTH CENTRAL SCOTT AND
EASTERN VAN BUREN COUNTIES...

AT 428 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS AROUND 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED APPROXIMATELY ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM GRIFFIN TO HILLSBORO...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 13 MILES EAST OF ALEDO TO 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MOUNT
PLEASANT...MOVING SOUTH AT 45 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO THE 
QUAD CITIES...ALEDO...WAPELLO...MT PLEASANT...BURLINGTON.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 IN IOWA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 292 AND 297.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 74 IN IOWA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 5.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 74 IN ILLINOIS BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 2 AND 3.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 280 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 2 AND 18.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. MOVE IMMEDIATELY INDOORS AND STAY AWAY
FROM WINDOWS.

WIND DAMAGE WILL OCCUR BEFORE THUNDER CAN BE HEARD OR RAIN BEGINS.
SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

PLEASE REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO YOUR LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY FOR RELAY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4116 9184 4116 9149 4121 9136 4122 9125
      4133 9107 4142 9103 4144 9098 4142 9092
      4145 9086 4145 9079 4157 9070 4165 9056
      4115 9022 4114 9043 4095 9044 4066 9083
      4062 9177 4114 9189
TIME...MOT...LOC 0930Z 339DEG 39KT 4124 9050 4085 9167
WIND...HAIL 60MPH <1.00IN

$$

ERVIN

791 
WWUS53 KDVN 050939
SVSDVN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
439 AM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

IAC057-087-101-111-115-163-177-ILC071-073-131-161-187-051015-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0081.000000T0000Z-120905T1015Z/
VAN BUREN IA-SCOTT IA-LOUISA IA-LEE IA-JEFFERSON IA-HENRY IA-
DES MOINES IA-HENRY IL-MERCER IL-ROCK ISLAND IL-WARREN IL-
HENDERSON IL-
439 AM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 AM CDT
FOR HENDERSON...NORTHERN WARREN...CENTRAL ROCK ISLAND...MERCER...
SOUTHWESTERN HENRY...DES MOINES...HENRY...SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON...
NORTHERN LEE...SOUTHERN LOUISA...SOUTH CENTRAL SCOTT AND EASTERN VAN
BUREN COUNTIES...

AT 433 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS AROUND 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED APPROXIMATELY ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM GRIFFIN TO SALEM...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
14 MILES EAST OF ALEDO TO 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MOUNT PLEASANT...
MOVING SOUTH AT 45 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED 
ALEDO...BURLINGTON...DALLAS CITY...AND WEST POINT.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 74 IN IOWA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 3 AND 5.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 74 IN ILLINOIS BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 2 AND 3.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 280 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 9 AND 18.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. MOVE IMMEDIATELY INDOORS AND STAY AWAY
FROM WINDOWS.

PLEASE REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO YOUR LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY FOR RELAY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4116 9149 4121 9136 4122 9125 4125 9102
      4130 9086 4138 9074 4149 9063 4157 9050
      4115 9022 4114 9043 4095 9044 4066 9083
      4062 9177 4099 9185
TIME...MOT...LOC 0938Z 339DEG 39KT 4116 9046 4077 9163
WIND...HAIL 60MPH <1.00IN

$$

ERVIN

576 
WWUS53 KDVN 050944
SVSDVN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
444 AM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

IAC163-050954-
/O.CAN.KDVN.SV.W.0081.000000T0000Z-120905T1015Z/
SCOTT IA-
444 AM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SCOTT COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT WAS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE 
WEATHER HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

HOWEVER...THIS STORM IS STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN.

LAT...LON 4092 9183 4101 9148 4105 9130 4108 9114
      4112 9092 4117 9075 4131 9060 4144 9053
      4144 9043 4115 9022 4114 9043 4095 9044
      4066 9083 4062 9177
TIME...MOT...LOC 0944Z 339DEG 39KT 4110 9043 4071 9160

$$

IAC057-087-101-111-115-177-ILC071-073-131-161-187-051015-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0081.000000T0000Z-120905T1015Z/
VAN BUREN IA-LOUISA IA-LEE IA-JEFFERSON IA-HENRY IA-DES MOINES IA-
HENRY IL-MERCER IL-ROCK ISLAND IL-WARREN IL-HENDERSON IL-
444 AM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 AM CDT
FOR HENDERSON...NORTHERN WARREN...SOUTH CENTRAL ROCK ISLAND...EASTERN
MERCER...SOUTHWESTERN HENRY...DES MOINES...SOUTHERN HENRY...
SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON...NORTHERN LEE...SOUTHEASTERN LOUISA AND
EASTERN VAN BUREN COUNTIES...

AT 442 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS AROUND 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED APPROXIMATELY ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM NORTH HENDERSON TO MT HAMILL...OR ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES NORTH OF GALESBURG TO 16 MILES NORTHWEST OF
FORT MADISON...MOVING SOUTH AT 45 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. MOVE IMMEDIATELY INDOORS AND STAY AWAY
FROM WINDOWS.

PLEASE REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO YOUR LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY FOR RELAY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4092 9183 4101 9148 4105 9130 4108 9114
      4112 9092 4117 9075 4131 9060 4144 9053
      4144 9043 4115 9022 4114 9043 4095 9044
      4066 9083 4062 9177
TIME...MOT...LOC 0944Z 339DEG 39KT 4110 9043 4071 9160
WIND...HAIL 60MPH <1.00IN

$$

ERVIN

658 
WWUS53 KDVN 050951
SVSDVN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
451 AM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

IAC101-115-ILC161-051001-
/O.CAN.KDVN.SV.W.0081.000000T0000Z-120905T1015Z/
LOUISA IA-JEFFERSON IA-ROCK ISLAND IL-
451 AM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ROCK ISLAND...
SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISA COUNTIES IS
CANCELLED...

THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORM THAT WAS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE 
WEATHER...HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

HOWEVER...THIS STORM IS STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN.

LAT...LON 4087 9182 4090 9151 4097 9131 4100 9114
      4104 9091 4109 9073 4124 9058 4130 9048
      4135 9037 4115 9022 4114 9043 4095 9044
      4066 9083 4062 9177
TIME...MOT...LOC 0951Z 339DEG 39KT 4103 9040 4064 9157

$$

IAC057-087-111-177-ILC071-073-131-187-051015-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0081.000000T0000Z-120905T1015Z/
VAN BUREN IA-LEE IA-HENRY IA-DES MOINES IA-HENRY IL-MERCER IL-
WARREN IL-HENDERSON IL-
451 AM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 AM CDT
FOR HENDERSON...NORTHERN WARREN...SOUTHEASTERN MERCER...SOUTHWESTERN
HENRY...DES MOINES...SOUTHERN HENRY...NORTHERN LEE AND EASTERN VAN
BUREN COUNTIES...

AT 447 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS AROUND 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED APPROXIMATELY ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM NORTH HENDERSON TO PRIMROSE...OR ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTH OF GALESBURG TO 13 MILES WEST OF FORT
MADISON...MOVING SOUTH AT 45 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
BIGGSVILLE...SPRING GROVE...MONMOUTH...WEVER...COLDBROOK...
KIRKWOOD...HEAPSVILLE...HOPPER...FORT MADISON MUNICIPAL ARPT...
SHOKOKON...OLENA...CARMAN...ORMONDE...DECORRA...SMITHSHIRE...MEDIA...
PONEMAH...STRONGHURST...LOMAX...LARCHLAND...TERRE HAUTE AND RARITAN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. MOVE IMMEDIATELY INDOORS AND STAY AWAY
FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 4087 9182 4090 9151 4097 9131 4100 9114
      4104 9091 4109 9073 4124 9058 4130 9048
      4135 9037 4115 9022 4114 9043 4095 9044
      4066 9083 4062 9177
TIME...MOT...LOC 0951Z 339DEG 39KT 4103 9040 4064 9157
WIND...HAIL 60MPH <1.00IN

$$

ERVIN

816 
WWUS53 KDVN 050958
SVSDVN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
458 AM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

IAC057-087-111-177-ILC071-073-131-187-051015-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0081.000000T0000Z-120905T1015Z/
VAN BUREN IA-LEE IA-HENRY IA-DES MOINES IA-HENRY IL-MERCER IL-
WARREN IL-HENDERSON IL-
458 AM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 AM CDT
FOR HENDERSON...NORTHERN WARREN...SOUTHEASTERN MERCER...SOUTHWESTERN
HENRY...SOUTHERN DES MOINES...SOUTHERN HENRY...NORTHERN LEE AND
EASTERN VAN BUREN COUNTIES...

AT 456 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS AROUND 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED APPROXIMATELY ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES EAST OF COLDBROOK TO DONNELLSON...OR
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM GALESBURG TO 9 MILES WEST OF NAUVOO...
MOVING SOUTH AT 45 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
LOMAX...LARCHLAND...TERRE HAUTE AND RARITAN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. MOVE IMMEDIATELY INDOORS AND STAY AWAY
FROM WINDOWS.

PLEASE REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO YOUR LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY FOR RELAY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4087 9182 4087 9151 4092 9131 4094 9112
      4097 9091 4105 9073 4115 9057 4124 9046
      4127 9031 4115 9022 4114 9043 4095 9044
      4066 9083 4062 9177
TIME...MOT...LOC 0959Z 339DEG 39KT 4095 9036 4056 9153
WIND...HAIL 60MPH <1.00IN

$$

ERVIN

168 
WWUS53 KDVN 051006
SVSDVN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
506 AM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

IAC057-087-111-177-ILC071-073-131-187-051015-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0081.000000T0000Z-120905T1015Z/
VAN BUREN IA-LEE IA-HENRY IA-DES MOINES IA-HENRY IL-MERCER IL-
WARREN IL-HENDERSON IL-
506 AM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 AM CDT
FOR HENDERSON...NORTHERN WARREN...SOUTHEASTERN MERCER...SOUTHWESTERN
HENRY...SOUTHERN DES MOINES...SOUTHERN HENRY...NORTHERN LEE AND
EASTERN VAN BUREN COUNTIES...

AT 501 AM CDT...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS REPORTED CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AROUND 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES EAST OF COLDBROOK
TO DECORRA TO DONNELLSON...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM GALESBURG
TO 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BURLINGTON TO 14 MILES WEST OF NAUVOO...
MOVING SOUTH AT 45 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO TERRE
HAUTE AND RARITAN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

&&

LAT...LON 4087 9182 4087 9151 4092 9131 4094 9112
      4097 9091 4105 9073 4115 9057 4124 9046
      4127 9031 4115 9022 4114 9043 4095 9044
      4066 9083 4062 9177
TIME...MOT...LOC 1006Z 339DEG 39KT 4094 9034 4069 9097
          4057 9161
WIND...HAIL 60MPH <1.00IN

$$

087 
WWUS53 KDVN 051011
SVSDVN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
511 AM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

IAC057-087-111-177-ILC071-073-131-187-051020-
/O.EXP.KDVN.SV.W.0081.000000T0000Z-120905T1015Z/
VAN BUREN IA-LEE IA-HENRY IA-DES MOINES IA-HENRY IL-MERCER IL-
WARREN IL-HENDERSON IL-
511 AM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR HENDERSON...NORTHERN WARREN...
SOUTHEASTERN MERCER...SOUTHWESTERN HENRY...SOUTHERN DES MOINES...
SOUTHERN HENRY...NORTHERN LEE AND EASTERN VAN BUREN COUNTIES WILL
EXPIRE AT 515 AM CDT...

THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER HAVE 
WEAKENED. NO NEW REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER HAVE BEEN RECIEVED IN THE 
LAST 20 MINUTES...AND RADAR SUGGESTS THE WIND THREAT HAS DECREASED. 
THEREFORE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 4087 9182 4087 9151 4092 9131 4094 9112
      4097 9091 4105 9073 4115 9057 4124 9046
      4127 9031 4115 9022 4114 9043 4095 9044
      4066 9083 4062 9177
TIME...MOT...LOC 1010Z 339DEG 39KT 4090 9032 4065 9095
          4053 9159

$$

ERVIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
315 AM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A CONVECTIVE LINE WITH STRONG...BUT SO FAR NON SEVERE WIND GUST IS
MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHEAST EARLY TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW FOR
LATER TODAY AND COULD PRODUCE MORE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE MCS/LINE WILL SWEEP THROUGH MOST LOCATIONS PRIOR TO 12Z...AND
THIS LEAVES THE DAY TO DEAL WITH POTENTIAL HEATING...AND POSSIBLE
MORE STORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT. SINCE IT IS MOVING FAST EARLY
TODAY...WE COULD RE HEAT THE ATMOSPHERE...SO WILL GO WITH HIGH
CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON CENTRAL AND EAST. SEVERE
THREATS WILL NEED TO BE DETERMINED AFTER THE CONVECTIVE LINE LEAVES
THE CWA EARLY TODAY. TONIGHT...DRY WEATHER...AND COOLER AIR FILTERS
IN FROM THE NORTHWESTERN PLAINS. HIGHS ARE ON COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE
TODAY DUE TO RAINY AND CLOUDY START.

ERVIN

.LONG TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE ACRS THE AREA THU
WITH HIGHS LOOKING WARMER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS FROM 80 TO 85 IN MOST
OF THE CWA. LATEST SUITE OF 00Z RUN MODELS STILL WITH SOME
DISAGREEMENT IN NORTH-SOUTH ALIGNMENT OF LLVL BAROCLINICITY IN THE
THE SOUTHERN CWA OR JUST TO THE SOUTH...BUT STILL APPEARS ALONG AND
JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA AS UPPER L/W TROF DIGS ACRS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. AS NOCTURNAL LLJ GETS INDUCED AND RAMPS UP WITH A MODERATE
TO STRONG THAT-E FEED...AN OVERRUNNING SHOWER OR MCS EVENT STILL
APPEARS TO BE ON TAP FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA FROM LATE THU NIGHT
INTO FRI. THE NEW 00Z ECMWF AND THE UKMET PAINT HEAVY RAINFALL OF
1-2+ INCHES ACRS THE SOUTHERN CWA INTO FRI MORNING...WHILE THE 00Z
GFS HAS SHIFTED BACK TO IT/S MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION FOLLOWING IT/S
MODEL FEEDBACK ACRS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TOWARD THE LOWER MS RVR
VALLEY...JUTS LIGHTER SECONDARY OVERRUNNING RAINS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I80. WILL KEEP WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF WAY OF THINKING WITH
HIGH POPS SOUTH OF I80 LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI. EMBEDDED ELEVATED
THUNDER MAINLY SOUTH OF I80. ROUND OF STRONGLY DIGGING L/W UPPER TROF
ACRS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS RVR VALLEY CONTINUES INTO FRI
AS RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT LOOKS TO SWEEP THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BY
FRI EVENING. POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS OR MAYBE PRECIP MORE CHARACTERIZED
AS JUST LIGHT RAIN TO LINGER INTO FRI EVENING BEFORE ENDING FROM
WEST-TO-EAST. DEPENDING ON EXIT TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND LINGERING
RAIN...LOWS FRI NIGHT COOLING WELL DOWN INTO THE 50S WITH EVEN SOME
UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST. SINGLE DIGIT H85 MB TEMPS
ADVERTISED BY MOST MODELS ACRS THE CWA BY 12Z SAT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LONGER RANGE SOLUTIONS AND ENSEMBLES STILL
SUGGEST HIGHER AMPLITUDE FETCH FROM THE NORTH AFTER UPPER TROF AND
CYCLONE PASSAGE...WITH ROBUST COLD AIR ADVECTION DOWN ACRS THE
WESTERN GRT LKS. INCOMING AIRMASS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS SAT ONLY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH LOWS AT NIGHT DOWN IN THE 40S WITH
CLEAR SKIES. LOW CHANCE OF A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IN NORTHWEST
STEERING FLOW FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AS THREAT SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF
THE DVN CWA. BOTH SFC AND UPPER RIDGING FOLDING ACRS THE UPPER MS RVR
VALLEY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNING BY
MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH STILL LOW HUMIDITY
FOR IDEAL WEATHER TO START THE WEEK OFF WITH. STRONGER WAA LOOKS ON
TAP FOR NEXT TUE AS ANOTHER L/W UPPER TROF DIGS DOWN IN NORTHERN
STREAM ACRS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. HIGHS MAY RETURN TO THE MID OR
UPPER 80S BY NEXT TUE LOOKING AT CURRENTLY PROJECTED WARM AIR RETURN
AND MIXING A SOUTHERLY WINDS.   12

&&

.AVIATION...
THE CONVECTIVE LINE IS PRODUCING WINDS TO 35 KTS AT THIS TIME...AND
WILL LIKELY DO SO AS IT HEADS SOUTHEAST AT 30 TO 45 MPH EARLY THIS
MORNING. AFTER THIS...A MVFR SKY SHOULD BECOME VFR BY 14Z. A COLD
FRONT MAY BRING MORE STORMS TO AREAS EAST OF THE CEDAR RAPIDS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. ALL DRY FORECASTS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 00Z.    ERVIN

&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

ERVIN/12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
448 AM CDT TUE SEP 4 2012

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-051000-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
448 AM CDT TUE SEP 4 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AREAS OF DENSE FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS...
WILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN IOWA THROUGH 8 AM CDT.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS FORECASTING A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA...INCLUDING
AREAS GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF CEDAR RAPIDS TO DUBUQUE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING OVER THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA. LATER TONIGHT...AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR MORE STORMS TO
EASTERN IOWA. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WARM HUMID AIR MAY PRODUCE A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS IN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA ON WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A
LINE FROM DUBUQUE...TO MUSCATINE IOWA AND TO KAHOKA MISSOURI IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO DETERMINE WHETHER A SEVERE STORM THREAT EXISTS FOR THESE
LATE WEEK STORMS AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SPOTTER ACTIVATION TODAY AND TONIGHT IN
EASTERN IOWA. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ON WEDNESDAY.

ERVIN/12

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
154 AM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

IAZ040>042-051>053-063-050745-
BENTON-BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-IOWA-JONES-LINN-
154 AM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING...

AT 149 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM STRAWBERRY POINT...TO GRUNDY
CENTER...MOVING EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL IMPACT VINTON...INDEPENDENCE...AND
MANCHESTER THROUGH 230 AM.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...WINDS GREATER THAN 45 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 4265 9147 4251 9105 4198 9179 4181 9227
      4190 9231 4230 9231 4230 9207 4251 9209
      4265 9187
TIME...MOT...LOC 0652Z 283DEG 42KT 4233 9229

ERVIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
221 AM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

IAZ041-042-052>054-050815-
DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-JACKSON-JONES-LINN-
221 AM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST...

AT 217 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR DELAWARE...OR NEAR MANCHESTER...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HOPKINTON AROUND 230 AM CDT...
  WORTHINGTON AROUND 235 AM CDT...
  CASCADE AROUND 245 AM CDT...
  BERNARD AROUND 255 AM CDT...
  6 MILES NORTHEAST OF CANTON AROUND 300 AM CDT...

PENNY SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 60 MPH...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM. THIS LINE WILL IMPACT MONTECELLO AND DUBUQUE IN THE
NEXT 30 MINUTES.

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 4263 9070 4261 9069 4258 9067 4257 9066
      4219 9068 4210 9138 4244 9150 4259 9137
      4264 9072
TIME...MOT...LOC 0720Z 302DEG 39KT 4246 9133

ERVIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
305 AM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

IAZ041-042-051>054-063>068-076-077-ILZ001-050900-
WASHINGTON IA-SCOTT IA-MUSCATINE IA-LINN IA-KEOKUK IA-JOHNSON IA-
JACKSON IA-IOWA IA-DUBUQUE IA-DELAWARE IA-BENTON IA-CEDAR IA-
CLINTON IA-JONES IA-JO DAVIESS IL-
305 AM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST...

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH AHEAD OF THE
STORMS...AND A BREIF GUST TO AROUND 50 MPH AS THE RAIN BEGINS.
THESE STORMS ARE LOCATED FROM DUBUQUE TO WILLIAMSBURG AS OF 3
AM...AND ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 TO 45 MPH. SMALL
HAIL...LIGHTNING...AND BREIF HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH THESE
STORMS.

STRONG GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF THE STORMS WILL MAKE DRIVING
DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES...AND POSSIBLY BLOW
AROUND LOOSE OBJECTS.

&&

LAT...LON 4252 9063 4251 9063 4251 9048 4199 9021
      4162 9097 4135 9220 4178 9229

ERVIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
307 AM CDT WED SEP 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0306 AM     HAIL             4 WNW DUBUQUE           42.52N 90.76W
09/05/2012  M0.75 INCH       DUBUQUE            IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED WITH HEAVY RAIN.

&&

ERVIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
348 AM CDT WED SEP 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0322 AM     TSTM WND GST     IOWA CITY MUNICIPAL AIR 41.63N 91.55W
09/05/2012  M66 MPH          JOHNSON            IA   ASOS

            OBSERVED WIND.

0322 AM     TSTM WND DMG     IOWA CITY               41.66N 91.54W
09/05/2012                   JOHNSON            IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREE LIMBS REPORTED DOWN. 12 INCH DIAMETER ON
            LARGEST.

&&

ERVIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
416 AM CDT WED SEP 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 NE MUSCATINE          41.44N 91.04W
09/05/2012  E70 MPH          MUSCATINE          IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WIND GUSTS ESTIMATED TO BE 65 TO 70 MPH.

&&