Alert archive / Michigan / Small Craft Advisories in 2012
Small Craft Advisory 97, NWS Detroit, MI
NWS Detroit, MI issued this small craft advisory at Nov 23, 2012, 9:43 PM EST. It was in force for 25 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Nov 23, 2012, 9:43 PM EST (02:43 UTC)
- Expired
- Nov 24, 2012, 11:00 PM EST
- In force
- 25 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Detroit, MI
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
779 WHUS73 KDTX 240243 MWWDTX URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 943 PM EST FRI NOV 23 2012 ...GALES WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT... .NO CHANGES TO REPORT IN THE MARINE WIND HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT AS 35 KNOT WIND GUSTS PERSIST OVER ALL MARINE AREAS. THE WIND FIELD WILL REMAIN STRONG AS POLAR AIR DEEPENS THROUGH SATURDAY BUT WITH GUSTS DROPPING BELOW GALE THRESHOLD. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH ONTARIO ON SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL BRING MODEST WESTERLY WIND TO THE REGION FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. LEZ444-240900- /O.CAN.KDTX.GL.W.0033.000000T0000Z-121124T0300Z/ /O.NEW.KDTX.SC.Y.0097.121124T0243Z-121124T0900Z/ /O.CON.KDTX.LO.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-121124T0900Z/ MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI- 943 PM EST FRI NOV 23 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY... ...LOW WATER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY... ...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 22 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 27 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 4 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 5 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 9 PM EST FRIDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 9 PM EST FRIDAY. THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. A LOW WATER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY. * WATER LEVELS FELL TO 27 INCHES BELOW CHART DATUM EARLIER THIS EVENING. THE WATER LEVELS ARE NOW RISING AND WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT...RISING ABOVE THE CRITICAL MARK FOR NAVIGATION BY 4 AM. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LOW WATER ADVISORY MEANS WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW AVERAGE. MARINERS SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION AND TRANSIT AT THE SLOWEST SAFE NAVIGABLE SPEED TO MINIMIZE IMPACT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LHZ442-443-241445- /O.CAN.KDTX.GL.W.0033.000000T0000Z-121124T0500Z/ /O.NEW.KDTX.SC.Y.0097.121124T0243Z-121125T0300Z/ HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI- 943 PM EST FRI NOV 23 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST SATURDAY... ...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST SATURDAY. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 27 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 32 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 10 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 14 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 11 PM EST FRIDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 3 AM EST SATURDAY. THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LCZ460-240900- /O.CAN.KDTX.GL.W.0033.000000T0000Z-121124T0300Z/ /O.NEW.KDTX.SC.Y.0097.121124T0243Z-121124T0900Z/ LAKE ST. CLAIR- 943 PM EST FRI NOV 23 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY... ...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 29 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 3 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 4 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 10 PM EST FRIDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 11 PM EST FRIDAY. THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LHZ421-422-240900- /O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0033.000000T0000Z-121124T0900Z/ /O.CON.KDTX.LO.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-121124T0900Z/ OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER SAGINAW BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI- 943 PM EST FRI NOV 23 2012 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY... ...LOW WATER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY... A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 28 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 33 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 10 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 14 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 9 PM EST FRIDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 2 AM EST SATURDAY. A LOW WATER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY. * THE WATER LEVELS BOTTOMED OUT AT 24 INCHES BELOW CHART DATUM THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE BEEN SLOWLY RISING SINCE. WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO RECENT AVERAGE LEVELS BY 4 AM. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS. A LOW WATER ADVISORY MEANS WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW AVERAGE. MARINERS SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION AND TRANSIT AT THE SLOWEST SAFE NAVIGABLE SPEED TO MINIMIZE IMPACT. && $$ LHZ361>363-462>464-241200- /O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0033.000000T0000Z-121124T1200Z/ LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- 943 PM EST FRI NOV 23 2012 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY... A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 36 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 16 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 23 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 9 PM EST FRIDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 9 PM EST FRIDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS. && $$ LHZ441-240900- /O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0033.000000T0000Z-121124T0900Z/ PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI- 943 PM EST FRI NOV 23 2012 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY... A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 29 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 34 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 12 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 17 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 11 PM EST FRIDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 2 AM EST SATURDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS. && $$
3 follow-up statements
199 WHUS73 KDTX 240810 MWWDTX URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 310 AM EST SAT NOV 24 2012 ...WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING TODAY... .WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. EVEN SO...LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN HIGH DUE TO THE COLD POLAR AIR...AND WAVES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW MORNING AS THE RIDGE AXIS ADVANCES EAST...BUT WILL GENERALLY HOVER AROUND 15 KNOTS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE MARINE WATERS. GRADUAL VEERING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY. LHZ421-242100- /O.CAN.KDTX.GL.W.0033.000000T0000Z-121124T0900Z/ /O.CAN.KDTX.LO.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-121124T0900Z/ /O.EXB.KDTX.SC.Y.0097.000000T0000Z-121125T0400Z/ OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER SAGINAW BAY- 310 AM EST SAT NOV 24 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING... ...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED... ...LOW WATER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 27 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 8 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 11 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 7 AM EST SATURDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 3 AM EST SATURDAY. THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE LOW WATER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LHZ422-241400- /O.CAN.KDTX.GL.W.0033.000000T0000Z-121124T0900Z/ /O.CAN.KDTX.LO.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-121124T0900Z/ /O.EXB.KDTX.SC.Y.0097.000000T0000Z-121124T1400Z/ INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI- 310 AM EST SAT NOV 24 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING... ...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED... ...LOW WATER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 21 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 27 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 4 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 5 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 3 AM EST SATURDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 3 AM EST SATURDAY. THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE LOW WATER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LHZ441-242100- /O.CAN.KDTX.GL.W.0033.000000T0000Z-121124T0900Z/ /O.EXB.KDTX.SC.Y.0097.000000T0000Z-121125T0400Z/ PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI- 310 AM EST SAT NOV 24 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING... ...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 23 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 29 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 10 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 14 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 7 AM EST SATURDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 3 AM EST SATURDAY. THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LHZ361-240915- /O.CAN.KDTX.GL.W.0033.000000T0000Z-121124T1200Z/ LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE- 310 AM EST SAT NOV 24 2012 ...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS CANCELLED THE GALE WARNING. $$ LEZ444-241400- /O.CAN.KDTX.LO.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-121124T0900Z/ /O.EXT.KDTX.SC.Y.0097.000000T0000Z-121124T1400Z/ MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI- 310 AM EST SAT NOV 24 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING... ...LOW WATER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS CANCELLED THE LOW WATER ADVISORY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 19 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 3 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 4 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 3 AM EST SATURDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 3 AM EST SATURDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LHZ362-363-462>464-241800- /O.EXT.KDTX.GL.W.0033.000000T0000Z-121124T1800Z/ LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- 310 AM EST SAT NOV 24 2012 ...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... THE GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 37 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 12 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 17 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 3 AM EST SATURDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 3 AM EST SATURDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS. && $$ LCZ460-241400- /O.EXT.KDTX.SC.Y.0097.000000T0000Z-121124T1400Z/ LAKE ST. CLAIR- 310 AM EST SAT NOV 24 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING... THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 18 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 3 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 4 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 3 AM EST SATURDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 4 AM EST SATURDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LHZ442-443-242100- /O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0097.000000T0000Z-121125T0300Z/ HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI- 310 AM EST SAT NOV 24 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 24 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 31 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 9 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 13 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 10 AM EST SATURDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 3 AM EST SATURDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$
286 WHUS73 KDTX 241403 MWWDTX URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 903 AM EST SAT NOV 24 2012 ...WINDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY... .WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. EVEN SO...LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN HIGH DUE TO THE COLD POLAR AIR...AND WAVES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW MORNING AS THE RIDGE AXIS ADVANCES EAST...BUT WILL GENERALLY HOVER AROUND 15 KNOTS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE MARINE WATERS. GRADUAL VEERING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY. LCZ460-LEZ444-LHZ422-241515- /O.EXP.KDTX.SC.Y.0097.000000T0000Z-121124T1400Z/ LAKE ST. CLAIR- MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI- INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI- 903 AM EST SAT NOV 24 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED... THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. $$ LHZ362-363-462>464-241800- /O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0033.000000T0000Z-121124T1800Z/ LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- 903 AM EST SAT NOV 24 2012 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 27 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 10 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 14 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 9 AM EST SATURDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 9 AM EST SATURDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS. && $$ LHZ442-443-250215- /O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0097.000000T0000Z-121125T0300Z/ HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI- 903 AM EST SAT NOV 24 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 24 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 31 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 9 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 13 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 10 AM EST SATURDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 10 AM EST SATURDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LHZ421-441-250215- /O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0097.000000T0000Z-121125T0400Z/ OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER SAGINAW BAY-PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI- 903 AM EST SAT NOV 24 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 22 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 28 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 9 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 13 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 9 AM EST SATURDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 9 AM EST SATURDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ DG
544 WHUS73 KDTX 242006 MWWDTX URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 306 PM EST SAT NOV 24 2012 ...WINDS AND WAVES TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING... .NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KNOTS WILL BACK TO WEST THIS EVENING AND THEN SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT...DECREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH TIME. IN RESPONSE...WAVES AS HIGH AS 8 TO 10 FEET LATE TODAY WILL SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET OVERNIGHT. LHZ442-443-250400- /O.EXT.KDTX.SC.Y.0097.000000T0000Z-121125T0400Z/ HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI- 306 PM EST SAT NOV 24 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING... THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 18 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 24 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 8 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 11 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 2 PM EST SATURDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 2 PM EST SATURDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LHZ421-441-250400- /O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0097.000000T0000Z-121125T0400Z/ OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER SAGINAW BAY-PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI- 306 PM EST SAT NOV 24 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 24 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 8 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 11 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 2 PM EST SATURDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 2 PM EST SATURDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ DG
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this small craft advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Detroit, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Nov 23, 8:26 PM EST, 1 hour 17 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Nov 23, 8:26 PM EST, 1 hour 17 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COPRRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
826 PM EST FRI NOV 23 2012
.UPDATE...
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS HURON AND TUSCOLA COUNTIES SUGGEST WIND GUSTS
NOW JUST UNDER 40 MPH. THEREFORE...WILL PLAN ON UPDATING THE
FORECAST TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY.
A DOMINANT LAKE EFFECT BAND STRETCHING FROM E-CNTL LAKE SUPERIOR
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL LOWER MI AND INTO THE THUMB HAS BECOME
ESTABLISHED THIS EVENING. THIS BAND SHOULD REMAIN IN A
QUASI-STEADY STATE WELL INTO THE NIGHT. WHILE THE HEAVIEST SNOWS
WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE PLATEAU IN N-CNTL MI...THE PERSISTENCE OF
THE BAND WILL SUPPORT MORE NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE THUMB /POSSIBLY ACROSS BAY COUNTY AS WELL/. THE
00Z KAPX SOUNDING SHOWED A VERY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE
FOR LAKE EFFECT. SO SUSPECT SAGINAW BAY MAY BE BOOSTING THE
INTENSITY A BIT...ALLOWING THE BAND TO PERSIST ALMOST TO PORT
HURON. THEREFORE...WILL ADD SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN THE GRIDS
ACROSS THE THUMB REGION /ALTHOUGH THE GUSTY WINDS WILL PREVENT A
UNIFORM SNOW COVER/.
THE WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS SRN LAKE MI ARE STILL EXPECTED TO VEER
MORE TO THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...SO THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO JUST SEE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 604 PM EST FRI NOV 23 2012
//DISCUSSION...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...WITH GUSTS
DROPPING BACK INTO THE 25-30 KNOT CATEGORY. A SECONDARY SFC TROUGH
WILL SLIDE ACROSS LAKE HURON EARLY THIS EVENING...CAUSING WINDS TO
VEER TO THE W-NW IN THE 02 TO 04Z TIME FRAME. WINDS WILL DECREASE
FURTHER OVERNIGHT AS THE GRADIENT SLOWLY WEAKENS. THE INVERSION
BASE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT THIS EVENING UNDER WEAK LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. THIS ALONG WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE
PULLING OFF TO THE EAST AND UPSTREAM SFC OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THE
TREND WILL BE FOR CEILINGS TO REMAIN PREDOMINATELY MVFR.
FOR DTW...PERIODIC LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL PERSIST THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS MORE WESTERLY. CEILING HEIGHTS
SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINATELY IN THE 3500 TO 4500 FT RANGE...ALTHOUGH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF
THE TAF PERIOD. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL TURN MORE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST BETWEEN 03Z AND 05Z...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE MORE
ORGANIZED SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF METRO.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WESTERLY WIND GUSTS WILL EXCEED 25 KNOTS THIS
EVENING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE CEILINGS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5000 FT INTO SAT
AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 347 PM EST FRI NOV 23 2012
SHORT TERM... TONIGHT
A BURST OF HEAVIER MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS USHERED IN THE MAIN
SURGE OF COLD AIR AND THE NEXT UPWARD SURGE IN WIND GUSTS THROUGH SE
MICHIGAN DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST
GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE INTERIOR OF
LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE PEAK STRENGTH OF THE WIND FIELD WITH THIS
SYSTEM, SO WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY EXPANSION OF THE WIND ADVISORY.
THE GOING HEADLINE WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR HURON AND TUSCOLA COUNTIES
WHERE ONSHORE FLOW FROM SAGINAW BAY WILL MAKE 45 MPH GUSTS MOST
LIKELY DURING THE EVENING.
AS COLD AIR DEEPENS SUFFICIENTLY, EXPECT ALL SNOW IN THE REMAINING
PATTERN OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
COVERAGE WILL BE GREATEST IN THE THUMB AS FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MID LEVEL OCCLUSION PIVOTS THROUGH THE REGION AND EXITS
EASTWARD BY EARLY EVENING. THAT WILL LEAVE BEHIND MORE OF A PURE
LAKE EFFECT SCENARIO FOR TONIGHT AS THE WIND VEERS TO THE
NORTHWEST. THE NORTHWEST DIRECTION IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR ALLOWING
MUCH ACTIVITY TO RIDE INTO OUR AREA FROM NORTHERN AND WESTERN
LOWER OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN, BUT WIND SPEED WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
DURING THE NIGHT WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL HANGING AROUND 7000 FT IN
MODEL SOUNDINGS. THESE ELEMENTS SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SUNRISE SATURDAY AS MIN TEMPS
SETTLE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
RESIDUAL CYCLONIC FLOW...LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP FLURRIES GOING FOR THE FIRST PART OF
SATURDAY. EVENTUALLY ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE BY SUNSET WILL GIVE PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
NEXT SYSTEM ALREADY MOVES INTO THE LAKES REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE PACK TIMING
OF THE CANADIAN AND UKMET. GFS IS A BIT TOO QUICK AND THE NAM IS
SLOWER DUE TO THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE OVER CANADA. MAIN FORCING
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE DEEP WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THETA-E
ADVECTION. THE SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS RELATIVELY
WEAK...BUT HAS SOME IMPRESSIVE DEPTH TO IT. NEARLY ALL OF THE
MODELS GIVE THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN .04 AND
08 AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE MAKES AS FAR SOUTH AS DETROIT. THE BEST
OF THE MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE
FORECAST AND THUS THE MODEL QPF. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE THIS
EVENT WILL BE AN ALL SNOW EVENT. WILL UP POPS ACROSS THE BOARD
WITH THIS SETUP.
SOME DRYING NOTED AGAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE SUNDAY MORNING SYSTEM FOR
MUCH OF SUNDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY...A COMBINATION OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING AHEAD OF THE NEXT OHIO VALLEY SYSTEM AND AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD MAKE FOR
A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY.
GUIDANCE TEMPS THROUGH MONDAY WERE REASONABLE...AND JUST MADE A FEW
TWEAKS TO CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS.
EXTENDED FORECAST STILL FOCUSED ON SYSTEM FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. 00Z MODEL SUITE INDICATED SOME TENDENCY TOWARD A WEAKER
AND FURTHER SOUTH OHIO VALLEY SYSTEM. 12Z RUNS CONTINUE THIS TREND
AND WILL LEAN TOWARD THAT SOLUTION. WILL FURTHER REDUCE THE POPS FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT THAT ALSO MEANS THAT IT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW IF THE PRECIPITATION CAN GET INTO SOUTHEAST MI.
STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND FARTHER NORTH
SYSTEM AS THE ENERGY RESPONSIBLE IS OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE NORTH
PACIFIC AND NOT WELL SAMPLED.
AFTER THAT...MODELS DISAGREE ON ANY NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY IN THE
FAST FLOW OVER THE NE U.S. FOR THE MOST PART...ANY NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY STAYS NORTH...AND ANY W OR NW SURFACE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE
FAST MOVING ENERGY IS SHORT LIVED. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE AND LIMIT ANY PRECIP CHANCES. WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN EXTENDED GUIDANCE GIVEN THE GUIDANCE/S
CLIMATOLOGY BIAS IN THE LATER PERIODS.
MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO REPORT IN THE MARINE WIND HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT AS 35
KNOT WIND GUSTS PERSIST OVER ALL MARINE AREAS. THE GALES WERE SLOW
TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEST END OF LAKE ERIE AND WILL BE FIRST TO END
THERE TONIGHT, AND NOT UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNRISE FOR THE OPEN WATERS
OF LAKE HURON. THE WIND FIELD WILL REMAIN STRONG AS POLAR AIR
DEEPENS THROUGH SATURDAY BUT WITH GUSTS DROPPING BELOW GALE
THRESHOLD. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY
THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH ONTARIO ON SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL
BRING MODEST WESTERLY WIND TO THE REGION FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE HURON...
GALE
WARNING...LHZ361-LHZ362-LHZ363-LHZ462-LHZ463-LHZ464...UNTIL 7
AM SATURDAY.
GALE WARNING...SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT
AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY.
LOW WATER ADVISORY...SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY.
GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT
HURON...UNTIL MIDNIGHT SATURDAY.
LAKE ST CLAIR...
GALE WARNING...UNTIL 10 PM FRIDAY.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...
GALE WARNING...UNTIL 10 PM FRIDAY.
LOW WATER ADVISORY...UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY.
&&
UPDATE.......SC
AVIATION.....SC
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....RBP
MARINE.......BT
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).Hazardous weather outlook, Nov 23, 3:00 PM EST, 6 hours 43 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 300 PM EST FRI NOV 23 2012 MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-240900- MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE- LAPEER-ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE- LENAWEE-MONROE- 300 PM EST FRI NOV 23 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR HURON AND TUSCOLA COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING. SEE THE LATEST NON-PRECIPITATION WEATHER MESSAGE FOR THE FURTHER DETAILS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT. LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464-240900- ST. CLAIR RIVER-DETROIT RIVER-LAKE ST. CLAIR- MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI- LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER SAGINAW BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI- PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI- PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI- LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- 300 PM EST FRI NOV 23 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE... LAKE HURON AND LAKE ST CLAIR. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW WATER ADVISORIES ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR SAGINAW BAY AND THE MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE WEATHER WARNING AND FORECAST MESSAGES FOR FURTHER DETAILS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT. RBP YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
Nearby
Small Craft Advisories in Michigan, 2012Every small craft advisory in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.