Alert archive / Michigan / Small Craft Advisories in 2012
Small Craft Advisory 87, NWS Detroit, MI
NWS Detroit, MI issued this small craft advisory at Oct 17, 2012, 4:30 PM EDT. It was in force for 28 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 17, 2012, 4:30 PM EDT (20:30 UTC)
- Expired
- Oct 18, 2012, 8:00 PM EDT
- In force
- 28 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Detroit, MI
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
247 WHUS73 KDTX 172030 MWWDTX URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 430 PM EDT WED OCT 17 2012 ...STRONG SOUTH WIND OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR GALES OVER THE OPEN WATERS... .AFTERNOON OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SOUTHERLY WIND INCREASED JUST SHORT OF SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BUT BUOY AND SHIP REPORTS INDICATE DURATION AND FETCH PUSHED WAVES OVER 4 FEET ALONG THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHERN LAKE HURON WHILE CONDITIONS WILL RAMP UP OVER THE REST OF THE REGION LATER IN THE NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GALE WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY TO ALLOW ANOTHER ROUND OF DATA TO COME IN FOR VERIFICATION OF A WEAKER TREND IN DATA SHOWN TODAY. IT WAS DECIDED NOT TO UPGRADE, FOR NOW, CONSIDERING THE NATURE OF THE EVENT IS LOOKING LIKE A GUST HERE AND THERE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE WILL HELP FIRM UP EXPECTATIONS FOR AN UPGRADE OR TO JUST DROP THE WATCH. LHZ441-442-180830- /O.NEW.KDTX.SC.Y.0087.121017T2030Z-121018T1200Z/ /O.CON.KDTX.GL.A.0024.121018T1200Z-121018T2000Z/ PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI- 430 PM EDT WED OCT 17 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY... ...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 24 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH GUSTS UP TO 28 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 5 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 7 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 7 AM EDT THURSDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 7 AM EDT THURSDAY. A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WATCH...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 28 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 8 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 11 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 10 AM EDT THURSDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 2 PM EDT THURSDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER ALTERING THEIR PLANS. && $$ LHZ443-180830- /O.NEW.KDTX.SC.Y.0087.121017T2030Z-121019T0000Z/ PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI- 430 PM EDT WED OCT 17 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 6 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 8 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 10 AM EDT THURSDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 1 PM EDT THURSDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LEZ444-180830- /O.NEW.KDTX.SC.Y.0087.121017T2030Z-121019T0000Z/ MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI- 430 PM EDT WED OCT 17 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 24 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 6 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 8 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 10 AM EDT THURSDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 11 AM EDT THURSDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LHZ421-422-180830- /O.NEW.KDTX.SC.Y.0087.121018T0800Z-121019T0000Z/ OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER SAGINAW BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI- 430 PM EDT WED OCT 17 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 27 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH GUSTS UP TO 31 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 7 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 10 FEET ON THE OUTER BAY. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 10 AM EDT THURSDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 12 PM EDT THURSDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LCZ460-180830- /O.NEW.KDTX.SC.Y.0087.121018T0800Z-121019T0000Z/ LAKE ST. CLAIR- 430 PM EDT WED OCT 17 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS UP TO 31 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 5 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 7 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 11 AM EDT THURSDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 11 AM EDT THURSDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LHZ361>363-462-463-180830- /O.CON.KDTX.GL.A.0024.121018T1200Z-121018T2000Z/ LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- 430 PM EDT WED OCT 17 2012 ...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON... A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WATCH...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 29 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 11 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 16 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 10 AM EDT THURSDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 2 PM EDT THURSDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER ALTERING THEIR PLANS. && $$ BT
3 follow-up statements
511 WHUS73 KDTX 180343 MWWDTX URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1143 PM EDT WED OCT 17 2012 ...GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE THURSDAY... .THE GALE WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY TO ALLOW ANOTHER ROUND OF DATA TO COME IN FOR VERIFICATION OF TODAY'S WEAKER TREND ON WIND SPEED IN NEW MODEL DATA. SURFACE GRADIENT WIND IS 30 KNOTS OR LESS AND STABILITY REMAINS HIGH IN MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS. NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME PERIODS OF MORE NEUTRAL STABILITY OFFERING SHORT WINDOWS OF GALE FORCE GUST POTENTIAL AND GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATE A QUICK BURST OF GALES POSSIBLE AS THE OCCLUSION ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY. DECIDED NOT TO UPGRADE, FOR NOW, CONSIDERING THE NATURE OF THE EVENT IS LOOKING LIKE A GUST HERE AND THERE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE WILL HELP FIRM UP EXPECTATIONS FOR AN UPGRADE OR TO JUST DROP THE WATCH. WIND AND WAVES WILL IMPROVE BUT MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED DUE TO PERIODIC SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY. LHZ421-422-181545- /O.EXT.KDTX.SC.Y.0087.121018T0343Z-121019T0000Z/ OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER SAGINAW BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI- 1143 PM EDT WED OCT 17 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY... THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 27 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH GUSTS UP TO 31 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 7 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 10 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 10 AM EDT THURSDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 12 PM EDT THURSDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LHZ441-442-181545- /O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0087.000000T0000Z-121018T1200Z/ /O.CON.KDTX.GL.A.0024.121018T1200Z-121018T2000Z/ PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI- 1143 PM EDT WED OCT 17 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY... ...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 22 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH GUSTS UP TO 24 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 6 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 8 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 7 AM EDT THURSDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 7 AM EDT THURSDAY. A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WATCH...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 28 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH GUSTS UP TO 34 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 8 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 11 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 10 AM EDT THURSDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 1 PM EDT THURSDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER ALTERING THEIR PLANS. && $$ LHZ443-181545- /O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0087.000000T0000Z-121019T0000Z/ PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI- 1143 PM EDT WED OCT 17 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 6 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 8 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 10 AM EDT THURSDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 1 PM EDT THURSDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LEZ444-181545- /O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0087.000000T0000Z-121019T0000Z/ MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI- 1143 PM EDT WED OCT 17 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 24 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS UP TO 29 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 6 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 8 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 10 AM EDT THURSDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 11 AM EDT THURSDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LCZ460-181545- /O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0087.121018T0800Z-121019T0000Z/ LAKE ST. CLAIR- 1143 PM EDT WED OCT 17 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS UP TO 31 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 5 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 7 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 11 AM EDT THURSDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 11 AM EDT THURSDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LHZ361>363-462-463-181545- /O.CON.KDTX.GL.A.0024.121018T1200Z-121018T2000Z/ LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- 1143 PM EDT WED OCT 17 2012 ...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON... A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WATCH...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 29 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH GUSTS UP TO 34 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 10 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 14 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 10 AM EDT THURSDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 2 PM EDT THURSDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER ALTERING THEIR PLANS. && $$
095 WHUS73 KDTX 180749 MWWDTX URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 349 AM EDT THU OCT 18 2012 ...GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING... .A BRIEF INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL COMMENCE EARLY TODAY IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS NOW APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO SUPPORT A GALE HEADLINE...WITH PEAK GUSTS TARGETING THE 30 KNOT RANGE OVER MOST OF LAKE HURON. APPROPRIATE SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES ARE NOW IN PLACE FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS TO ADDRESS THE UPTICK BOTH GUSTS AND WAVE CONDITIONS. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS COLDER AIR MOVES ACROSS AREA WATERS. LHZ441-442-182030- /O.EXT.KDTX.SC.Y.0087.000000T0000Z-121019T0000Z/ /O.CAN.KDTX.GL.A.0024.121018T1200Z-121018T2000Z/ PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI- 349 AM EDT THU OCT 18 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... ...GALE WATCH IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS CANCELLED THE GALE WATCH. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 8 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 11 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 9 AM EDT THURSDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 1 PM EDT THURSDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LHZ361>363-462-463-180900- /O.CAN.KDTX.GL.A.0024.121018T1200Z-121018T2000Z/ LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- 349 AM EDT THU OCT 18 2012 ...GALE WATCH IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS CANCELLED THE GALE WATCH. WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 30 KNOT RANGE THROUGH THIS EVENING. $$ LHZ421-422-443-182030- /O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0087.000000T0000Z-121019T0000Z/ OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER SAGINAW BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI- PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI- 349 AM EDT THU OCT 18 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 23 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH GUSTS UP TO 27 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 7 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 10 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 7 AM EDT THURSDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 12 PM EDT THURSDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LEZ444-182030- /O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0087.000000T0000Z-121019T0000Z/ MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI- 349 AM EDT THU OCT 18 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 18 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH GUSTS UP TO 26 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 6 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 8 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 4 AM EDT THURSDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 11 AM EDT THURSDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LCZ460-182030- /O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0087.121018T0800Z-121019T0000Z/ LAKE ST. CLAIR- 349 AM EDT THU OCT 18 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 18 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 5 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 7 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 5 AM EDT THURSDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 11 AM EDT THURSDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$
661 WHUS73 KDTX 181948 MWWDTX URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 348 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2012 ...GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING... .SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING AFTER WHICH TIME WAVES AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARD MICHIGAN. RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY BEGINS TO HEAD EASTWARD AND MOISTURE FLOWS AROUND THE LOW. WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KNOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CURRENT MODEL RUNS SHOW THAT WINDS IN THE NEARSHORE ZONES AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVERNIGHT TO SEE IF CONDITIONS CHANGE. LHZ421-422-441>443-190000- /O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0087.000000T0000Z-121019T0000Z/ OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER SAGINAW BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI- PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI- PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI- 348 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 19 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 26 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 5 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 7 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EDT THURSDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EDT THURSDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LEZ444-190000- /O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0087.000000T0000Z-121019T0000Z/ MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI- 348 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 18 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 4 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 5 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EDT THURSDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 4 PM EDT THURSDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LCZ460-190000- /O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0087.000000T0000Z-121019T0000Z/ LAKE ST. CLAIR- 348 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 16 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 23 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 3 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 4 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EDT THURSDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EDT THURSDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this small craft advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Detroit, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Oct 17, 4:15 PM EDT, 15 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Oct 17, 4:15 PM EDT, 15 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
415 PM EDT WED OCT 17 2012
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND EXPANDING CLOUD COVER FROM THE MIDWEST TO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY HAS BEEN THE RESULT OF SIGNIFICANT
MASS ADJUSTMENT OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF THE STRONG JET AND
ASSOCIATED CORRIDOR OF HEIGHT FALLS DIGGING INTO CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS ALONG THE NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. SIGNS
OF HEALTHY MOISTURE TRANSPORT ARE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
THIS WILL EASILY CONTINUE IN FORCE INTO THE NIGHT AS THE TROUGH
AMPLIFIES AND TAKES A NEGATIVE TILT. THE ACTIVITY OVER
ILLINOIS/INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
FILL IN AS THE LLJ DEVELOPS NORTHWARD AND INTENSIFIES OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW SHOWERS TO SPREAD INTO ALL LOCATIONS, FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST, BETWEEN 02Z AND 05Z THIS EVENING. THE DETROIT METRO
AREA MAY WELL END UP ON THE SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF THIS ACTIVITY,
MAKING FOR A MORE DIFFICULT CALL THERE. HOWEVER, EVEN IF A MORE
PERSISTENT RAINFALL FAILS TO MATERIALIZE IN THE METRO AREA, PERIODS
OF SHOWERS STILL LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET BEGINNING BY 03-04Z. IN
ADDITION, WITH SEVERAL CTG STRIKES ALREADY OBSERVED UPSTREAM IN
ASSOCIATION WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION, A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. POPS THEN GRADUALLY TAPER TOWARD A BLANKET
LIKELY TOWARD MORNING AS THE AREA SEES A TRANSITION AWAY FROM
FORCING FOCUSED ON THE MESOSCALE AND TOWARD RAPIDLY INCREASING BROAD
SCALE ASCENT IN THE PRESENCE OF CONTINUED HEALTHY MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN ITS PUSH INTO THE AREA BETWEEN
09Z-12Z SUPPORTING RENEWED CATEGORICAL POPS FOR OUR FAR WESTERN
AREAS. SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY GRADIENT FLOW WILL MAINTAIN LOW
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM... THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THE REST OF THE WAY THROUGH SE MICHIGAN
DURING THURSDAY MORNING WITH A PATTERN OF CATEGORICAL SHOWERS. THE
LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE FRONTAL FORCING WILL
BE COMPROMISED SLIGHTLY BY A STRINGING OUT OF THE BOUNDARY AS IT
ACCELERATES QUICKLY EASTWARD OF THE SURFACE LOW THAT WILL BE
STRONGLY OCCLUDING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. EXPECT THIS WILL
NOT RESULT IN MUCH IMPACT ON AREAL COVERAGE OF RAINFALL BUT WILL
LIKELY REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER OVER THAT OBSERVED TODAY.
COINCIDENT WITH THE EASTWARD MOVING OF THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE THE
MID LEVEL DRY SLOT THAT WILL PUSH INTO SE MICHIGAN BY MID AFTERNOON
TO BRING A CONSIDERABLE REDUCTION IN SHOWER COVERAGE, IF NOT A
PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS AROUND THE DETROIT AREA HEADING INTO
THURSDAY EVENING.
THE CONTINUED STRONG OCCLUSION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HELP
WITH THE CLOSING OFF PROCESS OVER THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE STICKING POINT IN THE FORECAST IS THE LOBE OF ENERGY THE 12Z
RUNS HAVE LATCHED ON TO AND PIVOT THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN DURING
FRIDAY. IT IS DIFFICULT TO TRACE THE ORIGINS OF THIS FEATURE WITH
OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND THESE TYPES OF STRUCTURES OFTEN PROVE TO HAVE
CONSIDERABLE VARIATION IN TIMING AND STRENGTH FROM CYCLE TO CYCLE.
PREFER FOR NOW TO MAINTAIN A CHANCE POP FORECAST THAT REFLECTS THE
MORE TYPICAL NATURE OF CLOSED LOWS, THAT BEING A SCATTERED SHOWER
PATTERN ENHANCED BY SURFACE HEATING UNDER THE COLD POOL ALOFT. A
SUBSEQUENT DECREASE IN COVERAGE DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN A LOWER END
CHANCE/SCATTERED POP. THE 12Z EURO SOLUTION IS THEN STRONGLY
PREFERRED OVER THE GFS AS THE EURO MORE CORRECTLY LINGERS THE
WESTERN FRINGES OF MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM OVER OUR AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS IS ACTUALLY HIGHER FOR THE SUNDAY
PERIOD AS THE COLLECTION OF GLOBAL MODELS BECOME INCREASINGLY LOCKED
IN ON THE CHARACTER OF THE HYBRID REX/OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE NORTH
PACIFIC. THE ANCHORING UPPER LOW BECOMING CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST
CANADA IS MASSIVE ENOUGH FOR EVEN THE SMALL SCALE FEATURES EMBEDDED
WITHIN TO HAVE HIGHER END PREDICTABILITY. THAT SIZED LONG WAVE
FEATURE IN THAT LOCATION WILL HAVE AN EASY TIME KICKING THE RESIDENT
GREAT LAKES SYSTEM INTO EASTERN CANADA. THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE BETWEEN
SYSTEMS WILL THEN SALVAGE A NICE FINISH TO THE WEEKEND WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND MODEST TEMPERATURE MODERATION. CONFIDENCE IS
SIMILARLY HIGH REGARDING THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE BY MONDAY
AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE MAX TEMP FORECAST FOR MONDAY
IS NUDGED ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LOWER 70S LIKELY. THE
PROSPECTS FOR A MID WEEK BACKDOOR FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUDS/RAIN POTENTIAL SUGGESTS A LESS AGGRESSIVE TEMPERATURE
APPROACH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
AFTERNOON OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SOUTHERLY WIND HAS INCREASED JUST
SHORT OF SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BUT BUOY AND SHIP REPORTS INDICATE
DURATION AND FETCH HAVE PUSHED WAVES OVER 4 FEET ALONG THE LAKE
HURON SHORELINE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR NEARSHORE
WATERS OF SOUTHERN LAKE HURON AT FORECAST ISSUANCE. CONDITIONS WILL
RAMP UP OVER THE REST OF THE REGION LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH SCA
TAKING EFFECT FOR ALL OTHER MARINE AREAS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.
THE GALE WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY TO ALLOW ANOTHER
ROUND OF DATA TO COME IN FOR VERIFICATION OF TODAY'S WEAKER TREND ON
WIND SPEED IN NEW MODEL DATA. SURFACE GRADIENT WIND IS 30 KNOTS OR
LESS AND STABILITY REMAINS HIGH IN MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS. NAM
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME PERIODS OF MORE NEUTRAL STABILITY OFFERING SHORT
WINDOWS OF GALE FORCE GUST POTENTIAL AND GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
QUICK BURST OF GALES POSSIBLE AS THE OCCLUSION ROTATES THROUGH THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY. DECIDED NOT TO UPGRADE, FOR NOW, CONSIDERING
THE NATURE OF THE EVENT IS LOOKING LIKE A GUST HERE AND THERE FOR AN
HOUR OR TWO. THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE WILL HELP FIRM UP EXPECTATIONS
FOR AN UPGRADE OR TO JUST DROP THE WATCH.
WIND AND WAVES WILL IMPROVE BUT MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED DUE TO PERIODIC SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 1252 PM EDT WED OCT 17 2012
//DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY FILL INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
NEXT WAVE THAT WILL IMPACT THE AREA INTO THURSDAY. GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY SUNSET AS MIXING CEASES. FIRST MAIN PUSH OF
MOISTURE WILL BRING SHOWERS TO MBS AND FNT FIRST...THEN ACROSS THE
REST OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL
ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN...WITH VISIBILITIES FALLING INTO THE MVFR
RANGE. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS RESUME ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY...SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTHWEST AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
FOR DTW...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN, AND A PERIOD OF
LOWER CIGS/VSBYS, WILL ARRIVE COINCIDENT WITH THE COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY MORNING.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE CEILINGS WILL FALL BELOW 5K FT FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
SANILAC...UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY.
GALE WATCH...LHZ361-LHZ362-LHZ363-LHZ441-LHZ442-LHZ462-
LHZ463...FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 4 PM THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT
HURON...UNTIL 8 PM THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SAGINAW BAY...FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 8 PM
THURSDAY.
LAKE ST CLAIR...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 8 PM THURSDAY.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 8 PM THURSDAY.
&&
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....BT
MARINE.......BT
AVIATION.....JVC/SS
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 17, 3:32 PM EDT, 58 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 332 PM EDT WED OCT 17 2012 MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-181945- MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER- ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE- 332 PM EDT WED OCT 17 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AS SHOWERS SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THESE STORMS WILL NOT BE SEVERE, ALTHOUGH THEY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AS THEY TRACK FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT. LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464-181945- ST. CLAIR RIVER-DETROIT RIVER-LAKE ST. CLAIR- MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI- LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER SAGINAW BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI- PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI- PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI- LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- 332 PM EDT WED OCT 17 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE HURON AND LAKE ST CLAIR. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT HURON. ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR ALL REMAINING NEARSHORE ZONES LATE TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECAST FOR MORE DETAIL. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AS SHOWERS SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE ALTHOUGH THEY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AS THEY TRACK FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY GALE WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECAST FOR MORE DETAIL. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT. YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
The office that day
Everything else NWS Detroit, MI issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 4:03 AM EDT | Gale Watch | DTX | 24 hr |
Nearby
Small Craft Advisories in Michigan, 2012Every small craft advisory in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.