Alert archive / Michigan / Small Craft Advisories in 2012

Small Craft Advisory 79, NWS Detroit, MI

October 4, 2012

NWS Detroit, MI issued this small craft advisory at Oct 4, 2012, 3:35 PM EDT. It took effect at Oct 5, 2012, 8:00 AM EDT. It was in force for 50 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Oct 4, 2012, 3:35 PM EDT (19:35 UTC)
In effect from
Oct 5, 2012, 8:00 AM EDT
Expired
Oct 7, 2012, 10:00 AM EDT
In force
50 hr
Issued by
NWS Detroit, MI

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

749 
WHUS73 KDTX 041935
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
335 PM EDT THU OCT 4 2012

...INCREASED WINDS AND WAVES BEHIND COLD FRONT TONIGHT...

.COLD FRONT PASSING THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT PROVIDES A GENERAL
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WITH NO SMW OR MWS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL VEER
BEHIND THE FRONT, THEN SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 20KT ARE LIKELY FOR 24
HOURS. HAVE HOISTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, BUT DID SHY AWAY FROM
GALES WITH THIS BEING A MARGINAL EVENT. GALES ARE MORE LIKELY WEST
OF MICHIGAN WITH A BETTER FETCH OF THE LAKE. MIXING HEIGHT NEAR
5000 FEET ON MODEL OUTPUT SHOULD YIELD HIGHEST GUSTS IN THE
25-30KT RANGE WITH ONLY VERY ISOLATED GUSTS NEAR 35KT. SMALL CRAFT
MAY BE REISSUED FOR SATURDAY AS WELL...BUT WINDS LOWER SOME WITH A
LAX PRESSURE GRADIENT.

LHZ421-422-441-050745-
/O.NEW.KDTX.SC.Y.0079.121005T1200Z-121006T1200Z/
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-
335 PM EDT THU OCT 4 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 8 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO
8 AM EDT SATURDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 26 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  32 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 7 
  FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 10 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 8 PM EDT FRIDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 9 PM EDT FRIDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

MM
7 follow-up statements
188 
WHUS73 KDTX 050757
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
357 AM EDT FRI OCT 5 2012

...GUSTY WINDS AND ELEVATED WAVES INTO SATURDAY MORNING...

.A FRESH WEST-SOUTHWEST BREEZE WILL GUST INTO THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE 
TODAY AS A COOL AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVERSPREADS AREA WATERS. A FEW 
GUSTS TO LOW END GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM OUTER SAGINAW BAY 
INTO CENTRAL LAKE HURON THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NO ORGANIZED OR 
WIDESPREAD GALES ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL EASE SOMEWHAT BY LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT BUT WAVES WILL REMAIN REMAIN ELEVATED INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. ALL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THEREFORE REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH
UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. A RENEWED SURGE OF GUSTY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF ANOTHER PUSH OF COLD AIR ON SATURDAY. A BRIEF
REPRIEVE CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY REDEVELOP
AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS BY LATE MONDAY.

LHZ421-422-441-052000-
/O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0079.121005T1200Z-121006T1200Z/
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-
357 AM EDT FRI OCT 5 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING
TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING
TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 23 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  31 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 6 
  FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 8 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 12 PM EDT FRIDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EDT FRIDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
283 
WHUS73 KDTX 051935
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
335 PM EDT FRI OCT 5 2012

...GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT...

.COLD AIR NOW ADVANCING ACROSS THE REGION IS LEADING TO UNSTABLE 
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. GUSTS THUS FAR HAVE REMAINED AT 
OR BELOW 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT TONIGHT AS A SURFACE 
TROUGH AND SECOND ROUND OF COLD AIR PUSH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. WIND 
GUSTS SHOULD STILL REMAIN BELOW 30 KNOTS. THIS TROUGH WILL ADVANCE 
ACROSS LAKE HURON ON SATURDAY...VEERING THE WINDS TOWARD THE 
NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL WEAKEN BY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES IN 
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE 
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY...LEADING TO INCREASED WINDS 
ACROSS THE LAKES THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

LHZ421-422-441-060900-
/O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-121006T1200Z/
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-
335 PM EDT FRI OCT 5 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY.

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 23 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  30 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 5 
  FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 7 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 8 PM EDT FRIDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 10 PM EDT FRIDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
416 
WHUS73 KDTX 060657
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
257 AM EDT SAT OCT 6 2012

...ELEVATED WAVES AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TODAY...

.ELEVATED WAVE CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY SUBSIDE IF WINDS SLACKEN BEFORE 
SUNRISE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...ANY BREAK WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A 
STRONG BREEZE WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH GUSTS 
TO NEAR GALES POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE HURON.  
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR SAGINAW BAY AND THE OUTER WATERS 
ALONG THE THUMB HAVE THEREFORE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. 
WINDS WILL THEN TURN NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND WILL GRADUALLY EASE 
BETWEEN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...AS THE WINDS MAKE THEIR 
INITIAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST A WAVE TRAIN CHARACTERIZED BY 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE 4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE WILL SPREAD SOUTH 
THROUGH THE NEARSHORE ZONES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY 
THE EXPOSED WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH. GIVEN THE SHORT 
DURATION AND SENSITIVITY TO THE EXACT WIND DIRECTION...SMALL CRAFT 
ADVISORIES WILL NOT YET BE ISSUED FOR TONIGHT THOUGH THEY REMAIN A 
DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE THE GREAT 
LAKES REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTH WINDS ON MONDAY WILL TURN 
NORTHWEST BY LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

LHZ421-422-441-062000-
/O.EXT.KDTX.SC.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-121006T2000Z/
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-
257 AM EDT SAT OCT 6 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  31 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 6 
  FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 8 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 2 PM EDT 
  SATURDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EDT 
  SATURDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
388 
WHUS73 KDTX 061339
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
939 AM EDT SAT OCT 6 2012

...ELEVATED WAVES AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT...

.A STRONG BREEZE WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH
GUSTS TO NEAR GALES POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE
HURON. WINDS WILL THEN TURN NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND WILL
GRADUALLY EASE BETWEEN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...AS THE WINDS
MAKE THEIR INITIAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST A WAVE TRAIN
CHARACTERIZED BY SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE 4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE
WILL SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE NEARSHORE ZONES DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ESPECIALLY THE EXPOSED WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR
BEACH. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE THE GREAT LAKES REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTH WINDS ON MONDAY WILL TURN NORTHWEST BY LATE
TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

LHZ442-443-070215-
/O.EXB.KDTX.SC.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-121007T1400Z/
HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
939 AM EDT SAT OCT 6 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY.

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 22 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  28 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 5 
  FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 7 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 1 PM EDT 
  SATURDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 2 AM EDT 
  SUNDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ421-070215-
/O.EXT.KDTX.SC.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-121007T0800Z/
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY-
939 AM EDT SAT OCT 6 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 23 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  30 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 6 
  FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 8 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 1 PM EDT 
  SATURDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EDT 
  SATURDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ422-070200-
/O.EXT.KDTX.SC.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-121007T0200Z/
INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
939 AM EDT SAT OCT 6 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 22 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  29 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 5 
  FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 7 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 1 PM EDT 
  SATURDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 2 PM EDT 
  SATURDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ441-070215-
/O.EXT.KDTX.SC.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-121007T1400Z/
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-
939 AM EDT SAT OCT 6 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY.

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  31 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 6 
  FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 8 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 2 PM EDT 
  SATURDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 1 AM EDT 
  SUNDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
417 
WHUS73 KDTX 070211
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1011 PM EDT SAT OCT 6 2012

...GUSTY WINDS AND HIGH WAVES CONTINUE TONIGHT...

.PERSISTENT COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS 
A HIGH PRESSURE WEAKNESS WORKS THROUGH THE REGION. A COUPLE OF 
COMMENTS ON RECENT HEADLINE CHANGES. THE FIRST WAS TO EXTEND THE 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FORWARD INTO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE 
SECOND WAS TO EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM HARBOR BEACH TO 
PORT HURON. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR...THE PATTERN...AND THE 
FORECASTED WAVE HEIGHTS AT SOLIDLY 3 TO 5 FEET OVERNIGHT FELT THIS 
WAS A SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH EVENT TO ISSUE THE ADVISORIES. 
ALSO...NOTICING THE GALE OBSERVATIONS RECORDED AT THE NORTHERN LAKE 
HURON BUOY THIS AFTERNOON. THE OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN EXTREMELY 
MARGINAL ...AND WITH FORECASTED WINDSPEEDS DECREASING THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF HOURS...WILL FORGO THE ISSUANCE OF A GALE WARNING.

LHZ422-070315-
/O.EXP.KDTX.SC.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-121007T0200Z/
INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
1011 PM EDT SAT OCT 6 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

$$

LHZ421-070800-
/O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-121007T0800Z/
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY-
1011 PM EDT SAT OCT 6 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 16 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS 
  UP TO 21 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL 
  BE 5 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 7 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 10 PM EDT 
  SATURDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 12 AM EDT 
  SUNDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ441>443-071400-
/O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-121007T1400Z/
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
1011 PM EDT SAT OCT 6 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT
SUNDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS 
  UP TO 22 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL 
  BE 6 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 8 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 10 PM EDT 
  SATURDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 12 AM EDT 
  SUNDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
390 
WHUS73 KDTX 070702
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
302 AM EDT SUN OCT 7 2012

...WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS MORNING...

.ALL ADVISORIES REMAIN IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING AND ARE STILL 
FORECAST TO EXPIRE AS WAVES GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BEFORE NOON TODAY. 
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE TODAY AS THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND WINDS GUST ONLY TO AROUND 15 KNOTS. 
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL THEN REDEVELOP TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS 
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL LIFT THROUGH THE 
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS WEEK. THIS WILL MARK THE BEGINNING 
OF A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE WATERS. AS THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD 
FRONT...SOUTH WINDS WILL POTENTIALLY GUST TO A LOW END GALE MONDAY 
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE SURGE OF COOL AIR FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL 
SPELL A RETURN TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY. BY 
THURSDAY...SOUTH WINDS WILL BEGIN RAMPING UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT 
SYSTEM.

LHZ421-070815-
/O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-121007T0800Z/
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY-
302 AM EDT SUN OCT 7 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY
THIS MORNING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY
THIS MORNING. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS 
  UP TO 20 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL 
  BE 5 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 7 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 2 AM EDT SUNDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 2 AM EDT SUNDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ441>443-071400-
/O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-121007T1400Z/
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
302 AM EDT SUN OCT 7 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
MORNING. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 16 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS 
  UP TO 20 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL 
  BE 6 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 8 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 2 AM EDT SUNDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 2 AM EDT SUNDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
774 
WHUS73 KDTX 070742
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
342 AM EDT SUN OCT 7 2012

...WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS MORNING...

.ALL ADVISORIES REMAIN IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING AND ARE STILL 
FORECAST TO EXPIRE AS WAVES GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BEFORE NOON TODAY. 
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE TODAY AS THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND WINDS GUST ONLY TO AROUND 15 KNOTS. 
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL THEN REDEVELOP TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS 
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL LIFT THROUGH THE 
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS WEEK. THIS WILL MARK THE BEGINNING 
OF A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE WATERS. AS THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD 
FRONT...SOUTH WINDS WILL POTENTIALLY GUST TO A LOW END GALE MONDAY 
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE SURGE OF COOL AIR FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL 
SPELL A RETURN TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY. BY 
THURSDAY...SOUTH WINDS WILL BEGIN RAMPING UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT 
SYSTEM.

LHZ421-070845-
/O.EXP.KDTX.SC.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-121007T0800Z/
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY-
342 AM EDT SUN OCT 7 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS
MORNING...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS
MORNING. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 14 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS 
  UP TO 18 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL 
  BE 5 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 7 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 3 AM EDT SUNDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 3 AM EDT SUNDAY. 

$$

LHZ441>443-071400-
/O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-121007T1400Z/
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
342 AM EDT SUN OCT 7 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
MORNING. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS 
  UP TO 19 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL 
  BE 5 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 7 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 3 AM EDT SUNDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 3 AM EDT SUNDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this small craft advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Detroit, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Oct 4, 1:00 PM EDT, 2 hours 35 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 4, 1:00 PM EDT, 2 hours 35 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
100 PM EDT THU OCT 4 2012

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AT MBS HAVE IMPROVED THIS AFTERNOON TO MVFR WITH
A SLOW CONTINUAL CLEARING THROUGH THE DAYTIME EXPECTED. VFR
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE CONTINUE TODAY AS STABLE MID-LEVEL AIR HOLDS
STRONG TEMPORARILY. WILL SEE SOME 20KT GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AS
MIXING HEIGHTS REACH 5000FT. CIGS WILL DROP OVERNIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. A 2-3 HOUR DROP TO MVFR ACROSS THE BOARD IS
POSSIBLE, BUT WILL QUICKLY RECOVER IN A COOL/STABLE POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET TONIGHT WITH PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 353 AM EDT THU OCT 4 2012

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS AFFECTED THE WEATHER OVER THE GREAT
LAKES FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL FINALLY ACCELERATE OUT OF THE
AREA TODAY. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CONCENTRATED
OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND NORTHERN THUMB DURING THE MORNING WITH
NOT MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER NEAR THE OHIO BORDER. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
THE HEELS OF THE SYSTEM AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY
THROUGH SE MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND EXIT TO OUR EAST BY SUNRISE FRIDAY
MORNING.

THE SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS HAVE BEEN IMPRESSIVE CONSIDERING THE MATURITY OF
THE OCCLUSION THAT HAS DRIVEN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS WELL INTO
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE WARM WATER OF LAKE MICHIGAN MAY BE PROVIDING
A BOOST BUT THERE ALSO REMAINS A RESPECTABLE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS THAT WILL ENHANCE THE DEFORMATION PATTERN AS
THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHEAR THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE
MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS THE ACCELERATED NORTHWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH DEPICTED IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS THAT WILL START THE DAY
IN THE DETROIT AREA TO SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER ALL OF SE MICHIGAN BY
MID AFTERNOON. THE CHALLENGE AT THAT POINT WILL BE TO PIN DOWN MAX
TEMPS THAT WILL BE LIFTED BY THE SUNSHINE AND DEEP/WELL MIXED
SOUTHWEST FLOW. UPSTREAM HIGHS YESTERDAY WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE SAME NUMBERS LOOK EASILY
REACHABLE IN OUR AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE ON OUR DOORSTEP
BY EARLY EVENING WHICH WILL PACK A PUNCH IN TERMS OF ITS WIND FIELD
AND TEMPERATURE CONTRAST. THIS MAKES CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THE
PRIMARY CONCERN. OBSERVATIONS OVER THE PLAINS SUPPORT MODEL
DEPICTIONS OF SURFACE DEWPOINT LIMITED TO THE 50S AHEAD OF THE FRONT
IN THE AIR MASS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO SE MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS THEN STRUGGLE TO GENERATE A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG OF CAPE BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS INDICATES 850 MB
DEWPOINT PUSHING 10C BY 00Z. THIS WILL BE GOOD FOR A PATTERN OF
SHOWERS THAT MEET ENTRY LEVEL LIKELY POPS WITH JUST AN ISOLATED
THUNDER MENTION BASED ON THE CAPE LIMITATIONS, FIRST IN THE TRI
CITIES DURING THE EVENING AND THEN SWEEPING WEST TO EAST AND EXITING
THE DETROIT AREA BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...

SOME IMPORTANT CHANGES IN THE ORIENTATION/STRUCTURE OF THE 500 MB
LOW JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON FRIDAY...AS IT NOW APPEARS
A STRONG BUT COMPACT UPPER WAVE/PV ANOMALY COMING OUT OF WYOMING
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE ABLE TO BACK THE LOW LEVEL FLOW JUST
ENOUGH...COUPLED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT TO ACTIVATE THE MID LEVEL
FRONTAL ZONE IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY...STREAKING
NORTHEAST INTO THE DETROIT METRO AREA. WITH SUCH A SHARP
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND IMPINGING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WORKING IN...IT
LOOKS TO BE A REAL TOUGH CALL FOR RAIN CHANCES....AND 00Z
NAM/GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN ALL SUGGEST A MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE OF
RAIN IS VALID...WITH EVEN A LIKELY ARGUMENT TOWARD THE OHIO
BORDER. EVEN IF THE RAIN DOESN'T NOT MAKE IT THIS FAR NORTH...THE
MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST IN THE LOWER 60S LOOKS TO BE IN JEOPARDY
AS CLOUD SHIELD LIKELY PERSISTS ACROSS SOUTH HALF/THIRD OF THE
CWA...AND WILL TWEAK DOWN TO NEAR 60 DEGREES.

ALTHOUGH THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING IN TO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY WILL BE WEAKENING...THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH SEEN SLIDING INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE IN THE
DAY...COUPLED WITH THE CYCLONIC COLD FLOW COMING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN
(850 MB TEMPS OF -3 TO -5 C) ARGUE FOR SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS.

SUNDAY REMAINS OPEN FOR SOME DEBATE...AS THE 12Z EURO VS 00Z NAM
HAVE SUBTLE BUT IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER
WAVE/LOW COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY...AND
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THE 00Z EURO HAS
TRENDING A BIT FARTHER SOUTH...AND WILL CARRY JUST SCATTERED/LOW
CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GLANCING GLOW INDICATED BY THE EURO
OR DUE TO THE LAKE EFFECT/DIURNAL ACTIVITY WITH 850 MB TEMPS
HOVERING AROUND -3 C.

TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT AROUND FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT APPEARS
LIKELY...AS RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS HOLDS OFF UNTIL THE DAYTIME HOURS OF MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES EARLY NEXT
WEEK OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST
FROM WESTERN CANADA.

MARINE...

SHOWERS WILL AFFECT SAGINAW BAY AND LAKE HURON TODAY, MAINLY DURING
THE MORNING, BUT THE MAIN MARINE CONCERN WILL BE A STRONG COLD FRONT
ON SCHEDULE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PACK A PUNCH BUT GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS LOOK MARGINAL.
THIS ASSESSMENT IS BASED ON MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT INDICATE A
LIMITED MIXED LAYER NOT QUITE CAPABLE OF TAPPING INTO HIGHER WINDS
ALOFT. IF GALES ARE REACHABLE, IT WILL BE WELL TOWARD THE EASTERN
SHORE OF LAKE HURON BEFORE DOING SO IN A CONVINCING MANNER. UPSTREAM
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED BUT CONDITIONS POST FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LIMITED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR SAGINAW BAY AND
AROUND THE TIP OF THE THUMB AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE
RESULTING HIGH WAVES. A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLDER AIR IS ALSO
EXPECTED SATURDAY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN ROUGH WATER CONDITIONS UNTIL
POSSIBLY SOME IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

AVIATION.....MM
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......BT

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 4, 4:02 AM EDT, 11 hours 33 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
402 AM EDT THU OCT 4 2012

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-050815-
MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER-
ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE-
402 AM EDT THU OCT 4 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE SEVERE AS THEY
TRACK EAST AT 40 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FROST OR FREEZE CONDITIONS BOTH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOWS DROP INTO THE 30S.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464-050815-
ST. CLAIR RIVER-DETROIT RIVER-LAKE ST. CLAIR-
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI-
LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT
BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND 5NM
OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER SAGINAW
BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
402 AM EDT THU OCT 4 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
HURON AND LAKE ST CLAIR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE SEVERE AS THEY
TRACK EAST AT 40 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SF

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

Nearby

Small Craft Advisories in Michigan, 2012Every small craft advisory in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.