Small Craft Advisory 5, NWS Detroit, MI

163 
WHUS73 KDTX 152013
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
313 PM EST SUN JAN 15 2012

...GALES DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON LATE TONIGHT...

.STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS 
NORTH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH WE ARE 
UNDER A STRONG WARM ADVECTION PATTERN...THE LOW LEVEL TEMPS  
START OUT VERY COLD AND WE STAY MODESTLY UNSTABLE IN THE LOWEST 
LEVELS THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF 
LAKE HURON NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO TOP OUT AROUND 30 KNOTS 
SUSTAINED...WITH GUSTS OF GALE FORCE. HAVE THUS ISSUED A LOCALIZED 
GALE WARNING FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER. SMALL CRAFT 
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN CONTINUED AND EXTENDED INTO OUTER SAGINAW BAY 
DUE TO THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS/HIGHER WAVES EXPECTED.

COLD FRONT WILL SINK THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MONDAY 
NIGHT...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING THROUGH ALONG THE FRONT 
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS 
WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...AS MUCH COLDER AIR SPILLS INTO THE 
REGION ONCE AGAIN...WITH GALES POSSIBLE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE 
HURON.

LHZ362-160900-
/O.NEW.KDTX.GL.W.0003.120116T0300Z-120116T1500Z/
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND
5NM OFF SHORE-
313 PM EST SUN JAN 15 2012

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 12 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 17 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 2 AM EST MONDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 7 AM EST MONDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ421-160900-
/O.EXA.KDTX.SC.Y.0005.120116T0100Z-120116T2100Z/
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY-
313 PM EST SUN JAN 15 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM
EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
TO 4 PM EST MONDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 23 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS UP 
  TO 25 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 5 
  FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 7 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 4 AM EST MONDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 5 AM EST MONDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ441-442-160900-
/O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0005.120116T0100Z-120116T2100Z/
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-
313 PM EST SUN JAN 15 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
TO 4 PM EST MONDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
TO 4 PM EST MONDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 24 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS UP 
  TO 26 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 6 
  FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 8 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 4 AM EST MONDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 6 AM EST MONDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

588 
WHUS73 KDTX 160218
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
918 PM EST SUN JAN 15 2012

...WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...

.STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS 
NORTH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH WE ARE 
UNDER A STRONG WARM ADVECTION PATTERN...THE LOW LEVEL TEMPS  
START OUT VERY COLD AND WE STAY MODESTLY UNSTABLE IN THE LOWEST 
LEVELS THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF 
LAKE HURON NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO TOP OUT AROUND 30 KNOTS 
SUSTAINED...WITH GUSTS OF GALE FORCE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN CONTINUED AND EXTENDED INTO OUTER SAGINAW BAY DUE TO THE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS/HIGHER WAVES EXPECTED.

COLD FRONT WILL SINK THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MONDAY 
NIGHT...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING THROUGH ALONG THE FRONT 
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS 
WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...AS MUCH COLDER AIR SPILLS INTO THE 
REGION ONCE AGAIN...WITH GALES POSSIBLE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE 
HURON.

LHZ363-462>464-161430-
/O.EXA.KDTX.GL.W.0003.120116T0300Z-120116T1500Z/
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF
SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
918 PM EST SUN JAN 15 2012

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 34 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS UP TO 37 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 13 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 19 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 7 AM EST MONDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 8 AM EST MONDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ362-161430-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0003.120116T0300Z-120116T1500Z/
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND
5NM OFF SHORE-
918 PM EST SUN JAN 15 2012

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 34 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS UP TO 38 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 14 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 20 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 7 AM EST MONDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 8 AM EST MONDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ443-161430-
/O.EXA.KDTX.SC.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-120116T2100Z/
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
918 PM EST SUN JAN 15 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS UP 
  TO 27 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 6 
  FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 8 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 7 AM EST MONDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 8 AM EST MONDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ421-441-442-161430-
/O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-120116T2100Z/
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY-PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-
HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-
918 PM EST SUN JAN 15 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 27 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS UP 
  TO 29 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 8 
  FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 11 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 7 AM EST MONDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 8 AM EST MONDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

947 
WHUS73 KDTX 160530
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1230 AM EST MON JAN 16 2012

...WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE TODAY...

.STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS 
NORTH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH WE ARE 
UNDER A STRONG WARM ADVECTION PATTERN...THE LOW LEVEL TEMPS  
START OUT VERY COLD AND WE STAY MODESTLY UNSTABLE IN THE LOWEST 
LEVELS THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF 
LAKE HURON NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO TOP OUT AROUND 30 KNOTS 
SUSTAINED...WITH GUSTS OF GALE FORCE. HAVE THUS ISSUED A LOCALIZED 
GALE WARNING FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER. SMALL CRAFT 
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN CONTINUED AND EXTENDED INTO OUTER SAGINAW BAY 
DUE TO THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS/HIGHER WAVES EXPECTED.

COLD FRONT WILL SINK THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MONDAY 
NIGHT...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING THROUGH ALONG THE FRONT 
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS 
WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...AS MUCH COLDER AIR SPILLS INTO THE 
REGION ONCE AGAIN...WITH GALES POSSIBLE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE 
HURON.

LHZ362-363-462>464-161500-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-120116T1500Z/
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND
5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF
SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
1230 AM EST MON JAN 16 2012

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 34 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS UP TO 38 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 14 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 20 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 7 AM EST MONDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 8 AM EST MONDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ422-161730-
/O.EXA.KDTX.SC.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-120116T2100Z/
INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
1230 AM EST MON JAN 16 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS UP 
  TO 23 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 4 
  FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 5 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 9 AM EST MONDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 12 AM EST MONDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ421-441>443-161730-
/O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-120116T2100Z/
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY-PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-
HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
1230 AM EST MON JAN 16 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 27 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS UP 
  TO 29 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 8 
  FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 11 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 7 AM EST MONDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 8 AM EST MONDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

KURIMSKI

781 
WHUS73 KDTX 160828
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
328 AM EST MON JAN 16 2012

...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...

.STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS 
NORTH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH WE ARE 
UNDER A STRONG WARM ADVECTION PATTERN...THE LOW LEVEL TEMPS START 
OUT VERY COLD AND WE STAY MODESTLY UNSTABLE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS 
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF 
LAKE HURON NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO TOP OUT AROUND 30 KNOTS 
SUSTAINED...WITH GUSTS OF GALE FORCE. HAVE THUS ISSUED A LOCALIZED 
GALE WARNING FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER. SMALL CRAFT 
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN CONTINUED AND EXTENDED INTO INNER SAGINAW BAY 
AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE DUE TO THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS/HIGHER 
WAVES EXPECTED.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SINK THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT 
LAKES TONIGHT...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING THROUGH 
ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. STRONG 
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...AS MUCH COLDER AIR 
SPILLS INTO THE REGION ONCE AGAIN...WITH GALES POSSIBLE OVER THE 
OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON. THE STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO LIKELY LEAD TO 
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS OVER THE NEARSHORE AREAS FROM LATE TUESDAY 
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. WILL ISSUE THESE HEADLINES ONCE THE CURRENT 
EVENT IS OVER AND THE NEXT EVENT DRAWS CLOSER.

LHZ362-363-462>464-161700-
/O.EXT.KDTX.GL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-120116T1700Z/
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND
5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF
SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
328 AM EST MON JAN 16 2012

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

THE GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 34 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS UP TO 37 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 14 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 20 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 6 AM EST MONDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 9 AM EST MONDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ444-162100-
/O.EXA.KDTX.SC.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-120116T2100Z/
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI-
328 AM EST MON JAN 16 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 21 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS UP 
  TO 22 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 5 
  FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 7 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 4 AM EST MONDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 7 AM EST MONDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ421-422-441>443-162100-
/O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-120116T2100Z/
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
328 AM EST MON JAN 16 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 31 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS UP 
  TO 32 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 8 
  FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 11 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 6 AM EST MONDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 7 AM EST MONDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

KURIMSKI

347 
WHUS73 KDTX 161417
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
917 AM EST MON JAN 16 2012

...WINDS DIMINISHING TODAY...

.A COLD FRONT WILL SINK THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING THROUGH ALONG THE
FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...AS MUCH COLDER AIR SPILLS
INTO THE REGION ONCE AGAIN...WITH GALES POSSIBLE OVER THE OPEN
WATERS OF LAKE HURON. THE STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO LIKELY LEAD TO
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS OVER THE NEARSHORE AREAS FROM LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. WILL ISSUE THESE HEADLINES ONCE THE
CURRENT EVENT IS OVER AND THE NEXT EVENT DRAWS CLOSER.

LHZ462>464-161530-
/O.CAN.KDTX.GL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-120116T1700Z/
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
917 AM EST MON JAN 16 2012

...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS CANCELLED THE
GALE WARNING. 

SOUTHERLY WINDS TOPPING OUT AROUND 30 KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.

$$

LHZ421-422-441>443-162100-
/O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-120116T2100Z/
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
917 AM EST MON JAN 16 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 31 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  32 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 8 
  FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 11 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 6 AM EST MONDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 7 AM EST MONDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ444-162100-
/O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-120116T2100Z/
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI-
917 AM EST MON JAN 16 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 21 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  22 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 5 
  FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 7 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 4 AM EST MONDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 7 AM EST MONDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

858 
WHUS73 KDTX 162014
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
314 PM EST MON JAN 16 2012

...WINDS INCREASING AGAIN ON TUESDAY...

.LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN 
TOMORROW MORNING...DEEPENING AS IT SLIDES EAST DURING THE DAY. 
STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT 
WILL LEAD TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS LATE IN THE DAY INTO TUESDAY 
NIGHT...WITH GALES POSSIBLE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON. A 
GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE 
NEEDED FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS FOR FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS. HIGH 
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WILL LEAD TO LIGHTER 
WINDS BEFORE THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT 
COMES THROUGH ON THURSDAY.

LEZ444-LHZ421-422-441>443-162115-
/O.CAN.KDTX.SC.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-120116T2100Z/
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI-
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
314 PM EST MON JAN 16 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS CANCELLED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. 

$$

LHZ361>363-462>464-170900-
/O.NEW.KDTX.GL.A.0004.120117T1800Z-120118T1200Z/
LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT
BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND
5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF
SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
314 PM EST MON JAN 16 2012

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A GALE
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WATCH...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS 
  UP TO 30 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 36 KNOTS. 
  THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 12 FEET WITH A 
  POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 17 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 11 PM EST 
  TUESDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 3 AM EST 
  WEDNESDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
333 AM EST SUN JAN 15 2012

.SHORT TERM...TODAY

LINGERING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES SHOULD TAPER
OFF BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING AS MEAN LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS
SOUTHWESTERLY OFF OF BOTH LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON.

H500 HEIGHTS WILL RISE TODAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS MOVES CLOSER. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOWEVER SLIDE EAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY HELPS PUSH A DOUBLE-BARRELED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CLOSER...STRETCHING FROM MANITOBA DOWN
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY 00Z. NET EFFECT WILL BE TO INCREASE
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW...DRAWING WARMER
AIR UP INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. WARMING TREND WILL NOT BE TOO DRAMATIC
AT THE SURFACE QUITE YET...WITH A WARM FRONT AT 925 MB NOT LIFTING
UP INTO THE AREA UNTIL EARLY EVENING. WARMING WILL OCCUR EARLIER IN
THE DAY ABOVE 850 MB...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WE WILL BE ABLE TO
MIX HIGH ENOUGH FOR IT TO BE REALIZED. MAX TEMPS DO LOOK TO BE
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...REACHING THE MID 20S THIS
AFTERNOON.

WITH REGARD TO PRECIPITATION...SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT
DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AS THE ELEVATED
FRONTS LIFT THROUGH (WITH LITTLE MOISTURE AS WELL) AND EXPECT
SNOW/FLURRIES TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS
CURRENTLY MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. A SIGNIFICANT
PIECE OF ENERGY/UPPER LEVEL PV WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
TOWARDS JAMES BY BY MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...A SHEARED OUT UPPER
LEVEL WAVE MAKING LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL QUICKLY
TRACK NORTHEAST AS IT RIDES ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE MOISTURE
AND AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE STILL LOOK ON TRACK TO REACH SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE
SNOW PACK HAVE INCLUDED THE MENTION OF FOG AS LIGHT RAIN BEGINS WITH
GOOD ISENTROPIC ASCENT AT THE 280K LEVEL.

THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TIMING
OF THE COLD FRONT AND THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR THAT WILL ADVECT IN
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE GFS MODEL IS STILL THE COLDEST MODEL IN
THIS REGARD WITH THE CANADIAN MODEL BY FAR THE WARMEST WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES SOARING TO +6 MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
CWA. THE SOLUTION STILL APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THESE TWO
EXTREMES AS THE WAVE TRACKS NORTHEAST AND PULLS SOME WARM AIR INTO
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN BEFORE THE COLD AIR SWINGS IN FROM THE WEST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

REGARDLESS OF HOW MUCH WARM AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION ALL OF
THE MODELS ARE COOLING THINGS OFF ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SNOW TO FALL
ACROSS THE CWA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE CHANGEOVER OCCURRING
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AREAS TO THE NORTH WILL BENEFIT FROM A LONGER
PERIOD OF SNOWFALL BEFORE THE BEST MOISTURE MOVES EAST WITH THE COLD
FRONT. AREAS LONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 69 COULD SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES
OF SNOW ON TUESDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL OBVIOUSLY
BE INFLUENCED BY THE TIMING OF THE CHANGEOVER AND HOW QUICKLY THINGS
COOL DOWN SO THESE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AS THE
EVENT TIME DRAWS CLOSER. FARTHER SOUTH LITTLE TO NO SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED AS THE PRECIPITATION REMAINS MAINLY LIQUID AND THE DRY SLOT
CUTS OFF SNOWFALL PRODUCTION ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ONCE THE COLD AIR
MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION.

COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH A
FEW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT TRIGGERING A FEW
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AS POLAR VORTEX ATTEMPTS TO SETTLE OVER
NORTHERN HUDSON BAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY IN ON A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND TRACKING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. WITH THE COLD AIR IN PLACE THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD...ALBEIT
VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS GIVEN THE QUICK NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE
LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH
TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MODERATE
HEADING INTO THE LATER PORTION OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS EXTREMELY LOW AS THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER WILDLY ON THE
PLACEMENT AND NATURE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY...BUT GUSTS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW 20
KNOTS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND BELOW 25 KNOTS OVER THE OPEN
LAKES. THE CHANGE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO PUT A DAMPER ON LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY...WITH ONLY A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER
THE OPEN WATERS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LAKE HURON.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER FROM THE SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS ONTARIO. THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL USHER WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA...CREATING A
MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE COOLER LAKE WATERS AND LIMITING
WIND GUST POTENTIAL. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS REMAINS
POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON TONIGHT...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH NOR THE DURATION LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF
A GALE WARNING. WIND GUSTS WILL HOWEVER TOP OUT NEAR 30 KNOTS OVER
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LAKE. FOR THE LAKE HURON NEARSHORE
WATERS...WIND GUSTS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS. PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW HOWEVER WILL ALLOW WAVE HEIGHTS TO INCREASE TO
BETWEEN 3 AND 6 FEET FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT SANILAC...AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

WINDS MAY BECOME STRONG AS THEY VEER TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY. WITH MUCH COLDER AIR ONCE AGAIN SPILLING
INTO THE AREA...UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO BETTER GUST
POTENTIAL AND POSSIBLE GALES...PARTICULARLY OVER LAKE HURON.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL SETUP APPEARS RATHER MARGINAL FOR A NOTABLE
EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1141 PM EST SAT JAN 14 2012

//DISCUSSION...

CEILINGS LOOK TO REMAIN VARIABLE DURING THE NIGHT AS A PERSIST
STRATUS DECK BASED BETWEEN 1800 FT AND 2500 FT LINGERS OVER A REGION
OF WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE EXTENDING FROM NEAR KGRR THROUGH KDET.
ANOTHER CLOUD DECK BASED AROUND 5000 FT WILL ALSO PERSIST UNDERNEATH
THE PERSISTENT INVERSION. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE
SOUTHERLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...BRINGING
A DRIER AIRMASS TO THE REGION. SO CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE DEGREASE
AFTER ROUGHLY 15Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE CEILINGS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH 10Z.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS AFTER 10Z.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI
MARINE.......HLO
AVIATION.....SC

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
239 PM EST SAT JAN 14 2012

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-151000-
MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER-
ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE-
239 PM EST SAT JAN 14 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NORTH OF
I-69 AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER.
FARTHER SOUTH...MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464-151000-
ST. CLAIR RIVER-DETROIT RIVER-LAKE ST. CLAIR-
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI-
LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT
BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND 5NM
OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER SAGINAW
BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
239 PM EST SAT JAN 14 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
HURON AND LAKE ST CLAIR.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SF

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).