Alert archive / Michigan / Small Craft Advisories in 2012

Small Craft Advisory 4, NWS Detroit, MI

January 12, 2012

NWS Detroit, MI issued this small craft advisory at Jan 12, 2012, 2:39 PM EST. It took effect at Jan 12, 2012, 9:33 PM EST. It was in force for 36 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jan 12, 2012, 2:39 PM EST (19:39 UTC)
In effect from
Jan 12, 2012, 9:33 PM EST
Expired
Jan 14, 2012, 10:00 AM EST
In force
36 hr
Issued by
NWS Detroit, MI

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

344 
WHUS73 KDTX 121939
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
239 PM EST THU JAN 12 2012

...STRONG WINDS TO IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

.A STRENGTHENING LOW OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INFLUX OF COLD AIR ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW END
NORTHWESTERLY GALE OVER MUCH OF LAKE HURON DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. GIVEN THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE EVENT AND THE FACT THAT
GALE OR NEAR GALES ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING...DID NOT
UPGRADE TO A WARNING AT THIS TIME. REGARDLESS...GUSTY WINDS NEAR
35 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. CORRESPONDINGLY HIGH WAVE
HEIGHTS AROUND 10 FEET CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED OVER THE OPEN WATERS
WITH SOME OF THAT ENERGY LIKELY TO PROPAGATE INTO THE NEARSHORE
WATERS OF SOUTHERN LAKE HURON AS WELL AS THE OUTER SAGINAW BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE THEREFORE BEEN ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS.
WESTERLY GALES ARE STILL EXPECTED FOR LAKE ERIE AS THE LOW LIFTS
OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. WINDS AND WAVES WILL DECREASE BY
SATURDAY WITH A QUIET PERIOD EXPECTED UNTIL SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ON MONDAY.

LEZ444-130745-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0002.120113T0600Z-120113T2100Z/
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI-
239 PM EST THU JAN 12 2012

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 26 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 34 KNOTS. 
  THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 5 FEET WITH A 
  POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 7 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 7 AM EST FRIDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 4 AM EST FRIDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ421-443-130745-
/O.NEW.KDTX.SC.Y.0004.120113T1200Z-120114T1200Z/
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY-PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
239 PM EST THU JAN 12 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST
SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO
7 AM EST SATURDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 27 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH WITH GUSTS UP TO
  34 KNOTS. FOR SAGINAW BAY...THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT
  WAVES WILL BE 10 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 14
  FEET. FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON...THE LARGEST EXPECTED
  SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 8 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE
  HEIGHT OF 12 FEET.

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 8 AM EST FRIDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 2 PM EST FRIDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ362-363-462>464-130745-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.A.0003.120113T1200Z-120114T0000Z/
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND
5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF
SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
239 PM EST THU JAN 12 2012

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...

A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WATCH...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS 
  UP TO 29 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH WITH GUSTS UP TO 39 KNOTS. THE 
  LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 10 FEET WITH A 
  POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 14 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 11 AM EST FRIDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 1 PM EST FRIDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

LHZ441-442-130745-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.A.0002.120113T1200Z-120114T0000Z/
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-
239 PM EST THU JAN 12 2012

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...

A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WATCH...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS 
  UP TO 28 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH WITH GUSTS UP TO 38 KNOTS. THE 
  LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 10 FEET WITH A 
  POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 14 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 10 AM EST FRIDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 1 PM EST FRIDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$
6 follow-up statements
128 
WHUS73 KDTX 130233
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
933 PM EST THU JAN 12 2012

...GUSTY WINDS AND ARCTIC AIR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.A STRONG LOW OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITH 
THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INFLUX OF COLD AIR ON THE BACK SIDE 
OF THE SYSTEM LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW END NORTHWESTERLY 
GALE OVER MUCH OF LAKE HURON DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. GIVEN THE 
MARGINAL NATURE OF THE EVENT AND THE FACT THAT GALE OR NEAR GALES 
ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING...DID NOT UPGRADE TO A WARNING 
AT THIS TIME. REGARDLESS...GUSTY WINDS NEAR 35 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED 
ON FRIDAY. CORRESPONDINGLY HIGH WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 10 FEET CAN ALSO 
BE EXPECTED OVER THE OPEN WATERS WITH SOME OF THAT ENERGY LIKELY TO 
PROPAGATE INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHERN LAKE HURON AS WELL 
AS THE OUTER SAGINAW BAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE THEREFORE BEEN 
ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS. WESTERLY GALES ARE STILL EXPECTED FOR LAKE 
ERIE AS THE LOW LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. WINDS AND WAVES 
WILL DECREASE BY SATURDAY WITH A QUIET PERIOD EXPECTED UNTIL 
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ON MONDAY.

LHZ362-363-462>464-130345-
/O.CAN.KDTX.GL.A.0003.120113T1200Z-120114T0000Z/
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND
5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF
SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
933 PM EST THU JAN 12 2012

...GALE WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS CANCELLED THE
GALE WATCH. 

$$

LEZ444-131445-
/O.EXT.KDTX.GL.W.0002.120113T0233Z-120113T2100Z/
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI-
933 PM EST THU JAN 12 2012

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 29 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 37 KNOTS. 
  THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 5 FEET WITH A 
  POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 7 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 11 AM EST FRIDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 3 AM EST FRIDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ441-442-131445-
/O.EXB.KDTX.SC.Y.0004.120113T0800Z-120114T0000Z/
/O.UPG.KDTX.GL.A.0002.120113T1200Z-120114T0000Z/
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-
933 PM EST THU JAN 12 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST
FRIDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH WITH GUSTS UP 
  TO 35 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 
  10 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 14 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 8 AM EST FRIDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EST FRIDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LCZ460-131445-
/O.EXB.KDTX.SC.Y.0004.120113T0233Z-120114T0000Z/
LAKE ST. CLAIR-
933 PM EST THU JAN 12 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS 
  UP TO 34 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL 
  BE 4 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 5 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 10 AM EST FRIDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 3 AM EST FRIDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ421-443-131445-
/O.EXT.KDTX.SC.Y.0004.120113T0800Z-120114T0000Z/
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY-PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
933 PM EST THU JAN 12 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST
FRIDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST
FRIDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 24 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH WITH GUSTS UP 
  TO 29 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 9 
  FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 13 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 7 AM EST FRIDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 2 PM EST FRIDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
097 
WHUS73 KDTX 130340
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1040 PM EST THU JAN 12 2012

...GUSTY WINDS AND ARCTIC AIR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.A STRONG LOW OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITH 
THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INFLUX OF COLD AIR ON THE BACK SIDE 
OF THE SYSTEM LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW END NORTHWESTERLY 
GALE OVER MUCH OF LAKE HURON DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. GIVEN THE 
MARGINAL NATURE OF THE EVENT AND THE FACT THAT GALE OR NEAR GALES 
ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING...DID NOT UPGRADE TO A WARNING 
AT THIS TIME. REGARDLESS...GUSTY WINDS NEAR 35 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED 
ON FRIDAY. CORRESPONDINGLY HIGH WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 10 FEET CAN ALSO 
BE EXPECTED OVER THE OPEN WATERS WITH SOME OF THAT ENERGY LIKELY TO 
PROPAGATE INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHERN LAKE HURON AS WELL 
AS THE OUTER SAGINAW BAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE THEREFORE BEEN 
ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS. WESTERLY GALES ARE STILL EXPECTED FOR LAKE 
ERIE AS THE LOW LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE PERSISTENT
AND STRONG WESTERLY WINDS OVER LAKE ERIE WILL ALLOW WATER LEVELS
TO DROP LOWER THAN THOSE CONSIDERED SAFE FOR NAVIGATION ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE LAKE...AND A LOW WATER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS AND WAVES WILL DECREASE BY SATURDAY
WITH A QUIET PERIOD EXPECTED UNTIL SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ON MONDAY.

LEZ444-131545-
/O.NEW.KDTX.LO.Y.0002.120113T0340Z-120113T2300Z/
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-120113T2100Z/
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI-
1040 PM EST THU JAN 12 2012

...LOW WATER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A LOW
WATER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY. 

* EXPECT WATER LEVELS TO DROP CLOSE TO 9 INCHES BELOW LOW WATER
  DATUM BY 1 AM EST FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOW WATER CONDITIONS
  PERSISTING UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 29 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 37 KNOTS. 
  THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 5 FEET WITH A 
  POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 7 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 11 AM EST FRIDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 3 AM EST FRIDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

A LOW WATER ADVISORY MEANS WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW AVERAGE. MARINERS SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION
AND TRANSIT AT THE SLOWEST SAFE NAVIGABLE SPEED TO MINIMIZE
IMPACT.

&&

$$

LCZ460-131545-
/O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-120114T0000Z/
LAKE ST. CLAIR-
1040 PM EST THU JAN 12 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS 
  UP TO 34 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL 
  BE 4 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 5 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 10 AM EST FRIDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 3 AM EST FRIDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ421-441>443-131545-
/O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0004.120113T0800Z-120114T0000Z/
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY-PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-
HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
1040 PM EST THU JAN 12 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST
FRIDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST
FRIDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH WITH GUSTS UP 
  TO 35 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 
  10 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 14 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 8 AM EST FRIDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EST FRIDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

HLO
513 
WHUS73 KDTX 130915
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
415 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2012

...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON...

.A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM EASTERN ONTARIO INTO 
SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY. A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED 
WITH THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG COLD AIR 
ADVECTION WILL CREATE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AND 
ALLOW GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE TODAY. WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF LAKE HURON AND ACROSS LAKE ST CLAIR.
FURTHER SOUTH...GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN
LAKE ERIE. THE PERSISTENT AND STRONG WESTERLY WINDS OVER LAKE ERIE
WILL ALLOW WATER LEVELS TO DROP LOWER THAN THOSE CONSIDERED SAFE
FOR NAVIGATION ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE LAKE...AND A LOW
WATER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL ALSO GROW QUITE LARGE TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER LAKE HURON AS
WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS BUILDING TO AROUND 10 FEET.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

LEZ444-132115-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-120113T2100Z/
/O.CON.KDTX.LO.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-120113T2300Z/
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI-
415 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2012

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...LOW WATER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 27 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 5 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 7 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 4 AM EST FRIDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 5 AM EST FRIDAY. 

A LOW WATER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

* AT 340 AM EST...THE WATER LEVEL NEAR TOLEDO WAS -1
  INCHES...WHICH IS 10 INCHES BELOW THE CRITICAL MARK FOR SAFE
  NAVIGATION. THE WATER LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STEADY THROUGH
  THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN BEGIN TO RISE LATE THIS MORNING. THE
  WATER LEVEL WILL RISE ABOVE THE CRITICAL MARK LATE FRIDAY
  AFTERNOON.

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

A LOW WATER ADVISORY MEANS WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW AVERAGE. MARINERS SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION
AND TRANSIT AT THE SLOWEST SAFE NAVIGABLE SPEED TO MINIMIZE
IMPACT.

&&

$$

LHZ421-441>443-132115-
/O.EXT.KDTX.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-120114T0900Z/
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY-PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-
HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
415 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
SATURDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 24 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH WITH GUSTS UP TO 31 KNOTS.
  THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 9 FEET WITH A
  POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 13 FEET.

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 8 AM EST FRIDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 1 PM EST FRIDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LCZ460-132115-
/O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-120114T0000Z/
LAKE ST. CLAIR-
415 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 21 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP
  TO 31 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 4
  FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 5 FEET.

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 4 AM EST FRIDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 4 AM EST FRIDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

HLO
729 
WHUS73 KDTX 132122
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
422 PM EST FRI JAN 13 2012

...WAVES SLOW TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT...

.WHILE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE
EVENING...EXPECT WAVES TO REMAIN HIGH ON LAKE HURON THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL MARKEDLY IMPROVE ON WEDNESDAY AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AND BRINGS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.

LEZ444-132230-
/O.CAN.KDTX.GL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-120113T2100Z/
/O.CAN.KDTX.LO.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-120113T2300Z/
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI-
422 PM EST FRI JAN 13 2012

...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...
...LOW WATER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS CANCELLED THE
GALE WARNING. THE LOW WATER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

$$

LCZ460-132230-
/O.CAN.KDTX.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-120114T0000Z/
LAKE ST. CLAIR-
422 PM EST FRI JAN 13 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS CANCELLED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. 

$$

LHZ421-441>443-140900-
/O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-120114T0900Z/
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY-PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-
HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
422 PM EST FRI JAN 13 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
SATURDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY.

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 22 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP
  TO 30 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 9
  FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 13 FEET.

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EST FRIDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EST FRIDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

DG
519 
WHUS73 KDTX 140840
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
340 AM EST SAT JAN 14 2012

...WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS LAKE HURON THIS MORNING...

.LARGE WAVES...GENERATED BY STRONG AND PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WINDS THE
PAST FEW DAYS...WILL SLOWLY DECREASE IN HEIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THIS WILL OCCUR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND
ALLOWS WIND SPEEDS TO FURTHER DECREASE. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL FALL
BELOW 4 FEET BY 10 AM.

LHZ421-441>443-141500-
/O.EXT.KDTX.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-120114T1500Z/
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY-PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-
HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
340 AM EST SAT JAN 14 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 16 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH WITH GUSTS UP 
  TO 20 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 7 
  FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 10 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 4 AM EST SATURDAY
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 4 AM EST SATURDAY.

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

HLO
495 
WHUS73 KDTX 141501
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1001 AM EST SAT JAN 14 2012


LHZ421-441>443-141615-
/O.EXP.KDTX.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-120114T1500Z/
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY-PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-
HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
1001 AM EST SAT JAN 14 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY AS WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

$$

DG

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this small craft advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Detroit, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Jan 12, 12:49 PM EST, 1 hour 50 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 12, 12:49 PM EST, 1 hour 50 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1249 PM EST THU JAN 12 2012

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL SLOWLY LIFT
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. RECENT OBSERVATIONS SHOWS LIFR CEILINGS
ARE BEGINNING TO RISE INTO IFR WITH VSBYS IMPROVING TO MVFR IN SOME
LOCATIONS THOUGH WE WILL LIKELY KEEP SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND AT ALL
SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. TREND IS TO GET SITES TO
MVFR BY THIS EVENING AS WE GET SOME MIXING WITH THE COLDER AIR
MOVING INTO THE AREA. MODELS SUGGEST WE WILL REMAIN SOCKED IN WITH
IFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BUT THINKING THEY ARE A BIT TOO
PESSIMISTIC LOOKING AT NEIGHBORING OBSERVATIONS. RAIN WILL CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM 1-2 INCHES WITH POTENTIAL FOR MBS TO RECEIVE UP TO 3
INCHES.

FOR DTW...COLD AIR BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO THE AREA WILL HELPS
CEILING IMPROVE THIS EVENING APPROACHING 1000 FT. RAIN WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW OVERNIGHT WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLING BETWEEN
10Z AND 14Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AROUND 04Z TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 354 AM EST THU JAN 12 2012

SHORT TERM...TODAY

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PLACES THE PRIMARY
NORTHEASTWARD EJECTING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...WITH A WEAK VORT LOBE SEPARATING OFF THIS SYSTEM AND
SHEARING INTO NORTHERN OHIO.  THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE LOW BENEATH THIS
HEIGHT FALL REGION NOW POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF TOLEDO.  ASSOCIATED
MID LEVEL DEFORMATION PROVIDING THE NECESSARY FORCING TO SUPPORT A
NORTHWARD MIGRATING BAND OF LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. AS THIS STRONGER ASCENT STRIPS TO THE NORTH...LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE A TENDENCY FOR THE
PRECIPITATION FIELD TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE WHILE BECOMING MORE
DRIZZLY AS CEILINGS FALL BENEATH THE SURFACE LOW.

SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN TIER OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY.  INCREASING UPPER DIFFLUENCE/QG
FORCING WILL EMERGE ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE DEEP LONGWAVE
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW NOW PLOWING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.  SURFACE LOW
WILL DEEPEN ROUGHLY 5-7 MB AS THIS PROCESS UNFOLDS...PROVIDING THE
VERTICAL ADJUSTMENT NECESSARY TO WRAP THE TROWAL/REORGANIZING
DEFORMATION OVER THE THUMB/TRI-CITIES (AT LEAST BRIEFLY) THIS
AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME EXPANSION OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR THROUGHOUT THE LATTER HALF OF
THE DAY.  TO THE SOUTH...REMNANT DEEP LOW LOW LEVEL SATURATION
EXISTING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE LOW LEVEL CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE
TO PROMOTE OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE.  COVERAGE MAY SEE A DIP
DURING THE MIDDAY PERIOD /MAINLY M-59 SOUTH/ WITH THIS QUADRANT IN A
RELATIVE LULL BETWEEN THE FORCING TO THE NORTH AND THE EASTWARD
ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND EXPANDING MOISTURE FIELD STILL LOCKED TO
THE WEST.

LATEST LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS/THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ALL
LIQUID THROUGH THE BULK OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 35 TO 40F RANGE.  ALTHOUGH MORE
PRONOUNCED COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z...
GRADUAL TOP-DOWN COOLING WILL EVENTUALLY DRAG FREEZING LEVELS DOWN
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX TOWARD EARLY EVENING.  POTENTIAL IS THERE
FOR THIS TRANSITION TO OCCUR FASTER/MORE AGGRESSIVELY OVER NORTHERN
MIDLAND/BAY COUNTIES...SHOULD A PERIOD OF HIGHER PRECIPITATION RATES
EMERGE AND EFFECTIVELY COOL THE ENTIRE PROFILE.

LONG TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PRIMARY LOW CENTER...AT ROUGHLY 990MB...WILL BE AT ITS PIVOT
POINT THIS EVENING CLOSE TO THE EASTERN THUMB/LAKE HURON SHORELINE.
IT IS IN THIS GENERAL VICINITY THAT BEST JUXTAPOSITIONING OF CRISP
CVA/REMNANT MIDLEVEL THERMAL CIRCULATION AND LEFT EXIT REGION
DYNAMICS WILL BE LOCATED. IN FACT BY 06-12Z...THE BEST WARM AIR
ADVECTION/LEFT EXIT REGION DYNAMICS OF THE PARENT SYSTEM WILL HAVE
TRANSLATED WELL TO THE EAST....OVER PORTIONS OF NY
STATE...PENNSYLVANIA AND PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. NOT MUCH
HAS REALLY CHANGED IN THIS SURFACE LOW POSITIONING FROM THE FORECAST
DATA 24 HRS AGO. THE BEST FORCING WILL BE ALIGNED ALONG A
VORTICITY/DEFORMATION FILAMENT THAT WILL HAVE PINWHEELED/STALLED
NEAR THE SAGINAW BAY REGION (PROBABLY JUST NORTH OF). DIRECTLY TO
THE SOUTH OF THE LOW...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
DRY MIDLEVEL AIR BEING ENTRAINED WITHIN THE SPRAWLING LOW COMPLEX.
NOT A CLASSIC DRY SLOT BY ANY MEANS...BUT ENOUGH DRY AIR THAT ONE
NEEDS TO BE AWARE OF. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LESS THAN IDEAL
PRECIPITATION RATES THROUGHOUT THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT PRIMARILY
FOR POINTS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM BAD AXE TO ADRIAN. IN
ADDITION TO THIS DRY AIR...ANOTHER NEGATIVE WILL BE WARMISH
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL LIKELY DELAY THE CHANGEOVER
(FREEZING LEVELS AT 1500 FT AGL/SURFACE TEMPS CLOSE TO 4C). THE LOW
WILL SLIDE FAR ENOUGH EASTWARD BETWEEN 6-12Z THAT INCREASINGLY
BACKSIDE NORTH AND WESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH DEEPER MOISTURE BACK
ACROSS THE CWA AND WITH IT ACCUMULATING SNOW. THIS WILL ALSO PROMPT
MORE SUBSTANTIAL MIDLEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND GIVEN
CLIMATOLOGICAL CONSIDERATIONS BETTER SNOW RATIOS OF UPWARDS OF 15:1.
DEFORMATION FORCING THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE
TRANSIENT WITH NNE/SSW BAND SWEEPING EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE CWA/NO
STALLED OUT FEATURE. SO FOR TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF DRIER
MIDLEVEL AIR WITH BEGRUDGINGLY WARM BL TEMPS EARLY SHOULD KEEP
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TEMPERED. THE ONE PLACE THAT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED IS THE TRI CITIES REGION WHICH MAY VERY WELL SEE
SNOWFLAKES PRIOR TO THE START OF THE PERIOD ALONG WITH A RELATIVELY
LONGER DURATION EARLY.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
WEST AND LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE EAST. AROUND 1 INCH OF SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE EASTERN ONE THIRD OF THE CWA.
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
1 TO 2 INCH RANGE...WHILE THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS SHOULD REACH 2 TO
3 INCHES. GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THERMAL PROFILES...AND EXACT
PLACING OF FORCING WILL FORGO ANY DECISION MAKING ON HEADLINES.

FRIDAYS WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE DICTATED BY DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW AND A
REMNANT LAKE AGGREGATE SURFACE TROUGH. THE BIG QUESTION THAT NEEDS
TO BE SORTED OUT IS WHAT STRENGTH/PLACEMENT THIS SURFACE TROUGH WILL
BE (MAJOR INFLUENCE ON SURFACE FLOW TRAJECTORIES). NAM IS MORE
BULLISH ON TROUGHING/FORCING FOR SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN WHILE THE
ECMWF FADES THE TROUGHING FAIRLY QUICK. IN PATTERNS SUCH AS THESE
AND THIS FAR OUT...WILL CHOOSE THE SLOWER SOLUTION EVERY TIME. THE
OTHER LOW CONFIDENCE FACTOR WORKING ON FRIDAY IS THAT IT IS NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE TO KNOW WHAT SORT OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE PASSING
OVERHEAD. THE REASON IS THAT VERY DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL EFFECTIVELY SHEAR OUT ANY COHERENT VORTICITY
STRUCTURES/UPPER LEVEL FRONTAL GRADIENTS. THUS...EXPECTING VARIOUS
SHREDS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO PASS THROUGH ON FRIDAY WHICH MAY HELP
IN ENHANCING SNOWFALL ACTIVITY. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A
FAVORABLE SOUNDING FOR SNOWFALL GENERATION...FRONTAL INVERSION AT
700MB AND ADEQUATE LOW STABILITY LAPSE RATES ALOFT. WITH LOWER
OVERALL ABSOLUTE MOISTURE SNOWFALL ACCUMS WILL NOT BE
STAGGERING...BUT A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
(PERHAPS SOME THREE INCH AMOUNTS IN HURON COUNTY WITH SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT).

THE LEFTOVERS OF THE GREAT LAKES SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD FALL APART
RAPIDLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS FLOW ATTEMPTS AT BECOMING ZONAL....IN AN
INCREASINGLY WIDER LONGWAVE TROUGH. DEEP COLUMN SATURATION IS
ADVERTISED FOR THE EVENING...BUT IS LOST THEREAFTER. THIS IS GOOD
FOR A CHANCE POP...BUT NO REAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY BY RECENT
STANDARDS...BUT RIGHT AT NORMAL FOR THIS TIME IN JANUARY...THE TEENS.

THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE STATE WILL REMAIN
ENCOMPASSED WITHIN THE BROAD TROUGH...SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW
TO MODERATE. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CHECK IN AT THE MID 20S
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL BE ROUGHLY 5 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.
INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS ARRIVING IN CONJUNCTION WITH MUCH COLDER
AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF GALES TO THE MICHIGAN
WATERS OF LAKE ERIE BEGINNING OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS LAKE HURON AS THIS LOW PULLS
EAST ON FRIDAY.  THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR GUSTS TO REACH GALE FORCE
DURING THIS TIME...WARRANTING THE ISSUANCE OF A GALE WATCH FOR MUCH
OF THE OPENWATERS.  IN ADDITION...THE GROWING INSTABILITY WILL
RESULT IN HIGHER WAVE HEIGHTS OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.  WINDS
AND WAVES WILL EASE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SLACKENS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     GALE WATCH...LHZ362-LHZ363-LHZ441-LHZ442-LHZ462-LHZ463-
     LHZ464...FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...
     GALE WARNING...FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 4 PM FRIDAY.

&&

AVIATION.....DRK
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......MR

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
Hazardous weather outlook, Jan 12, 5:02 AM EST, 9 hours 37 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
502 AM EST THU JAN 12 2012

MIZ047-048-053-060-131015-
MIDLAND-BAY-SAGINAW-SHIAWASSEE-
502 AM EST THU JAN 12 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TODAY.
LIGHT RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING AS COLDER AIR
FILTERS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE
TONIGHT WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED BY FRIDAY
MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
AS ARCTIC AIR SETTLES OVER THE REGION. THESE SNOW SHOWERS MAY
BECOME LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION
WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES DURING THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MIZ049-054-055-061>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-131015-
HURON-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-GENESEE-LAPEER-ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-
MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE-
502 AM EST THU JAN 12 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TODAY.
LIGHT RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS
COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND IN
COVERAGE TONIGHT WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED BY
FRIDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
AS ARCTIC AIR SETTLES OVER THE REGION. THESE SNOW SHOWERS MAY
BECOME LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION
WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES...HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE THUMB.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LHZ362-363-441-442-462>464-131015-
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND 5NM
OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
502 AM EST THU JAN 12 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT ON FRIDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LEZ444-131015-
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI-
502 AM EST THU JAN 12 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FRIDAY.  PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LCZ422-423-460-LHZ361-421-422-443-131015-
ST. CLAIR RIVER-DETROIT RIVER-LAKE ST. CLAIR-
LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT
BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE-
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER SAGINAW
BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
502 AM EST THU JAN 12 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON AND
LAKE ST CLAIR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MR

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

The office that day

Everything else NWS Detroit, MI issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 12, 3:41 AM ESTGale WatchDTX18 hr
Jan 12, 3:41 AM ESTGale WatchDTX18 hr
Jan 12, 3:41 AM ESTGale WarningDTX37 hr

Nearby

Small Craft Advisories in Michigan, 2012Every small craft advisory in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.