Alert archive / Michigan / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2012

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 87, NWS Detroit, MI

July 5, 2012Macomb County, Saint Clair County, Michigan

NWS Detroit, MI issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 5, 2012, 4:35 AM EDT for Macomb County, Saint Clair County, Michigan. It was in force for 70 min. 4 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jul 5, 2012, 4:35 AM EDT (08:35 UTC)
Expired: Jul 5, 2012, 5:45 AM EDT
In force: 70 min
Issued by: NWS Detroit, MI
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Macomb County, MI, Saint Clair County, MI

The radar

The Detroit radar (KDTX), 61 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:36 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Jul 5, 4:55 AM EDT	TSTM WND DMG	2 Wnw Romeo, MI	POWERLINES DOWN ON THE SIDE OF THE ROAD
Jul 5, 4:55 AM EDT	TSTM WND DMG	4 Nne Rochester, MI	LARGE TREE DOWN IMPACTING PART OF THE ROAD NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF EAST SNELL ROAD AND MT VERNON.
Jul 5, 5:03 AM EDT	TSTM WND DMG	6 N Grosse Pointe, MI	POWERLINES AND TREES DOWNED
Jul 5, 5:05 AM EDT	TSTM WND DMG	4 Ne Macomb Township, MI	LARGE TREE DOWN ACROSS THE ROAD NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF 26 MILE AND NORTH AVENUE

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 4 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 20 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jul 5, 3:04 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	3 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Detroit, MI (KDTX), launched 00:00Z, 8.6 hours before the alert went out and 57 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 4748 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -23 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1268 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 32 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 75 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 119 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 1.4
Supercell composite: 9.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

266 
WUUS53 KDTX 050835
SVRDTX
MIC099-147-050945-
/O.NEW.KDTX.SV.W.0087.120705T0835Z-120705T0945Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
435 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  MACOMB COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...
  ST. CLAIR COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...

* UNTIL 545 AM EDT

* AT 432 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE
  THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING
  WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
  EXTENDING FROM HADLEY TO 5 MILES EAST OF CLARKSTON TO WEST
  BLOOMFIELD...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  STONEY CREEK METRO PARK AND WASHINGTON AROUND 450 AM EDT.
  SHELBY TOWNSHIP AND UTICA AROUND 455 AM EDT.
  ALLENTON AND RAY CENTER AROUND 500 AM EDT.
  BERVILLE AND RILEY CENTER AROUND 505 AM EDT.
  MEMPHIS AND ST. CLAIR SHORES AROUND 510 AM EDT.
  ANCHORVILLE AND RICHMOND AROUND 515 AM EDT.

THE WARNING INCLUDES AREAS SURROUNDING THESE LOCATIONS...
  YALE...               WARREN...             STERLING HEIGHTS...
  ST. CLAIR SHORES...   ST. CLAIR...          ROMEO...
  RICHMOND...           PORT HURON...         NEW BALTIMORE...
  MOUNT CLEMENS...      MEMPHIS...            MARYSVILLE...
  MARINE CITY...        MACOMB TOWNSHIP...    LAKEPORT...
  HARSENS ISLAND...     EMMETT...             CAPAC...
  ARMADA...             ALGONAC...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE 
ACROSS GRATIOT AND CLINTON COUNTIES. REPORTS INDICATE NUMEROUS TREES 
AND WIRES ARE DOWN IN SHIAWASSEE AND LIVINGSTON COUNTIES. THIS IS AN 
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY 
STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 4288 8247 4261 8251 4252 8269 4256 8266
      4260 8272 4267 8263 4268 8269 4266 8271
      4266 8272 4268 8272 4264 8281 4256 8277
      4254 8285 4245 8286 4244 8308 4289 8310
      4290 8298 4315 8299 4317 8250 4297 8240
TIME...MOT...LOC 0834Z 280DEG 40KT 4294 8335 4274 8329
          4256 8342
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

MR

4 follow-up statements

293 
WWUS53 KDTX 050858
SVSDTX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
458 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

MIC099-147-050945-
/O.CON.KDTX.SV.W.0087.000000T0000Z-120705T0945Z/
MACOMB MI-ST. CLAIR MI-
458 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. CLAIR AND
MACOMB COUNTIES UNTIL 545 AM EDT...

AT 453 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ROMEO TO STERLING HEIGHTS TO
ROYAL OAK...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

IN ADDITION...RECENT REPORTS OF WIND GUSTS RANGING FROM 55 TO 65 MPH 
WITH THIS LINE AS IT MOVED THROUGH PORTIONS OF LIVINGSTON AND 
OAKLAND COUNTIES.  

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  BERVILLE AND CLINTON TOWNSHIP AROUND 505 AM EDT.
  ARMADA AND CHESTERFIELD TOWNSHIP AROUND 510 AM EDT.
  NEW HAVEN AROUND 515 AM EDT.
  RICHMOND AND NEW BALTIMORE AROUND 520 AM EDT.
  ANCHORVILLE AND FAIR HAVEN AROUND 525 AM EDT.
  ADAIR AND PEARL BEACH AROUND 530 AM EDT.

THE WARNING INCLUDES AREAS SURROUNDING THESE LOCATIONS...
  WARREN...             STERLING HEIGHTS...   ST. CLAIR SHORES...
  ST. CLAIR...          ROMEO...              RICHMOND...
  PORT HURON...         NEW BALTIMORE...      MOUNT CLEMENS...
  MEMPHIS...            MARYSVILLE...         MARINE CITY...
  MACOMB TOWNSHIP...    HARSENS ISLAND...     EMMETT...
  CAPAC...              ARMADA...             ALGONAC...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE 
ACROSS GRATIOT AND CLINTON COUNTIES. REPORTS INDICATE NUMEROUS TREES 
AND WIRES ARE ACROSS PARTS OF SHIAWASSEE AND LIVINGSTON COUNTIES. 
THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A 
STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY OR VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC FACEBOOK
PAGE.

LAT...LON 4288 8247 4261 8251 4252 8269 4259 8267
      4260 8272 4267 8263 4268 8269 4266 8272
      4267 8272 4268 8272 4264 8281 4256 8277
      4254 8285 4245 8286 4245 8308 4289 8310
      4290 8298 4303 8298 4304 8246 4297 8240
TIME...MOT...LOC 0857Z 283DEG 32KT 4283 8302 4263 8296
          4245 8309
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

MR

250 
WWUS53 KDTX 050920
SVSDTX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
520 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

MIC099-147-050945-
/O.CON.KDTX.SV.W.0087.000000T0000Z-120705T0945Z/
MACOMB MI-ST. CLAIR MI-
520 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ST.
CLAIR AND EASTERN MACOMB COUNTIES UNTIL 545 AM EDT...

AT 517 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM RICHMOND TO 6 MILES SOUTH OF NEW
BALTIMORE TO GROSSE POINTE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  ANCHORVILLE AND FAIR HAVEN AROUND 525 AM EDT.
  ADAIR AND PEARL BEACH AROUND 530 AM EDT.
  ALGONAC AROUND 535 AM EDT.
  ST. CLAIR AND MARINE CITY AROUND 540 AM EDT.

THE WARNING INCLUDES AREAS SURROUNDING THESE LOCATIONS...
  WARREN...             ST. CLAIR SHORES...   ST. CLAIR...
  RICHMOND...           NEW BALTIMORE...      MOUNT CLEMENS...
  MEMPHIS...            MARYSVILLE...         MARINE CITY...
  HARSENS ISLAND...     ALGONAC...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 55 
TO 65 MPH AND TREE DAMAGE. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY 
STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY OR VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC FACEBOOK
PAGE.

LAT...LON 4261 8251 4252 8269 4256 8266 4256 8268
      4259 8267 4260 8272 4265 8263 4267 8263
      4268 8269 4267 8272 4268 8272 4264 8281
      4256 8277 4256 8283 4253 8286 4245 8286
      4245 8308 4262 8292 4290 8285 4294 8245
TIME...MOT...LOC 0920Z 283DEG 32KT 4278 8275 4258 8269
          4240 8282
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

MR

923 
WWUS53 KDTX 050934
SVSDTX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
534 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

MIC099-050944-
/O.CAN.KDTX.SV.W.0087.000000T0000Z-120705T0945Z/
MACOMB MI-
534 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN MACOMB COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE 
WARNED AREA.  WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES 
THROUGH 6 AM.  

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY OR VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC FACEBOOK
PAGE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY OR VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC FACEBOOK
PAGE.

LAT...LON 4252 8269 4256 8266 4256 8268 4259 8267
      4260 8272 4265 8263 4267 8263 4268 8268
      4267 8272 4270 8273 4271 8272 4269 8253
      4261 8251
TIME...MOT...LOC 0934Z 266DEG 9KT 4279 8273 4259 8267
          4252 8275 4241 8280

$$

MIC147-050945-
/O.CON.KDTX.SV.W.0087.000000T0000Z-120705T0945Z/
ST. CLAIR MI-
534 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
ST. CLAIR COUNTY UNTIL 545 AM EDT...

AT 530 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM RICHMOND TO 5 MILES WEST OF
HARSENS ISLAND TO 7 MILES EAST OF ST. CLAIR SHORES TO 5 MILES EAST OF
GROSSE POINTE...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  FAIR HAVEN AND PEARL BEACH AROUND 545 AM EDT.

THE WARNING INCLUDES AREAS SURROUNDING THESE LOCATIONS...
  HARSENS ISLAND...     ALGONAC...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 55 
TO 65 MPH AND TREE DAMAGE. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY 
STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY OR VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC FACEBOOK
PAGE.

LAT...LON 4252 8269 4256 8266 4256 8268 4259 8267
      4260 8272 4265 8263 4267 8263 4268 8268
      4267 8272 4270 8273 4271 8272 4269 8253
      4261 8251
TIME...MOT...LOC 0934Z 266DEG 9KT 4279 8273 4259 8267
          4252 8275 4241 8280
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

MR

660 
WWUS53 KDTX 050945
SVSDTX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
545 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

MIC147-050956-
/O.EXP.KDTX.SV.W.0087.000000T0000Z-120705T0945Z/
ST. CLAIR MI-
545 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ST. CLAIR COUNTY
HAS EXPIRED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE 
WARNED AREA.  WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 615 
AM.  

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY OR VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC FACEBOOK
PAGE.

LAT...LON 4252 8269 4256 8266 4256 8268 4259 8267
      4260 8272 4265 8263 4267 8263 4268 8268
      4267 8272 4270 8273 4271 8272 4269 8253
      4261 8251
TIME...MOT...LOC 0934Z 266DEG 9KT 4279 8273 4259 8267
          4252 8275 4241 8280

$$

MR

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Detroit, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 5, 3:35 AM EDT, 1 hour earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 5, 3:35 AM EDT, 1 hour before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
335 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PATTERN PERSISTENCE LOCKED IN ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING...AS THE REGION REMAINS FIRMLY WITHIN THE OUTER GRIP OF AN
EXPANSIVE SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE/HEAT WAVE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF
THE COUNTRY.  LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT AXIS NOW DRAPED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.  NUMEROUS WEAK...AND OFTEN VERY
ILL-DEFINED/RESOLVED...MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS CONTINUE TO CREST THE
RIDGE PERIPHERY AND FUNNEL EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION.
CURRENTLY...ONE CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED WAVE AND ATTENDANT OUTFLOW IS
DRIVING A SMALL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER
MI.  PER RECENT SPC MESOANALYSIS...COMPLEX APPEARS TO BE LOCKED ONTO
THE PRIMARY INSTABILITY GRADIENT (MUCAPE STILL IN EXCESS OF 1500
J/KG) THAT CONTINUES SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  GIVEN THE OUTFLOW DYNAMICS WORKING INTO THE STEEP
RESIDENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ENVIRONMENT CERTAINLY APPEARS
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEGREE OF DOWNSTREAM FORWARD PROGAGATION/
STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

BEYOND THIS...MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY CONVECTIVE PROSPECTS WILL BE
CLOSELY TIED TO A COMBINATION OF WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY...LAKE BREEZE INTERACTIONS AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER WAVE EMERGING FOR THE PEAK HEATING CYCLE.  A
COUPLE OF SUBTLE FEATURES NOTED ON WATER VAPOR TRANSLATING ACROSS
MN/WI WILL BE WORTH MONITORING.  A DEEP RESERVOIR OF INSTABILITY
WILL AGAIN EXIST BENEATH A STANDARD CAPPING INVERSION...SO THE
INTRODUCTION OF SOME DEGREE OF FORCED ASCENT WILL PROMOTE RAPID
UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION AND BRING AT LEAST A PULSE SEVERE OPPORTUNITY
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

HOT AIRMASS WILL SEE NO RELIEF/THERMAL ADJUSTMENT FROM THE EARLIER
FRONTAL PASSAGE.  ONCE AGAIN LOOKING AT A WELL MIXED PROFILE TAPPING
850 MB TEMPERATURES 22-24C...COINCIDENT WITH ANOTHER GOOD MID LEVEL
THETA-E SURGE FOR THE AFTERNOON.  NAM GUIDANCE NAILED THE AGGRESSIVE
TRIPLE DIGIT RESPONSE YESTERDAY...AND UNLESS AN EARLY DAY CONVECTIVE
EPISODE AND/OR CIRRUS DEBRIS CAN MATERIALIZE...SEE NO REASON TO
STRAY FROM THIS IDEA AGAIN TODAY.  WITH THE CUMULATIVE EFFECTS
BEGINNING TO TAKE A LARGER HOLD /OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE
70S/LOWER 80S IN MANY LOCALES/...RUN WITH AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING
MOST LOCATIONS...ADVISORY FOR THE THUMB.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOMPASS NEARLY ALL OF THE CONUS ON
FRIDAY...WHILE AN UPPER LOW TRACKS ACROSS HUDSON BAY. THE RIDGE WILL
START TO BREAK OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY...AS
THE LOW SETTLES INTO EASTERN CANADA AND SEVERAL TRAILING UPPER WAVES
MOVE EAST THOUGH CENTRAL CANADA AND HELP DIG A WEAK TROUGH OUT OVER
NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT
PATTERN CHANGE TO THE WEATHER OVER SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN...TRANSITIONING FROM HEAT...HUMIDITY...AND CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY TO COOLER...MORE COMFORTABLE...AND DRIER
WEATHER BY SUNDAY.

UNTIL THEN...HEAT...HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE AS
THETA-E RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND AS NAM/EURO SEND H850 TEMPS
BACK UP INTO TO AROUND 24-26C. THIS COMBINED WITH GOOD
INSOLATION...AT LEAST AT THE START OF THE DAY...WILL SUPPORT MAX
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S TO LOW 100S...WITH HEAT INDICES OF 104
TO 110 ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THIS IS OF COURSE BARRING ANY
SIGNIFICANT EFFECTS FROM UPSTREAM OR OVERHEAD CONVECTION. HAVE RAN
THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...WITH A HEAT
ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTHERN THUMB WHERE THE LAKE BREEZE WILL KEEP
THINGS COOLER. WITH REGARD TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...SIMILAR SET-UP
AS THE PRECEDING FEW DAYS WITH A WEAK PUSH OF THETA-E...POSSIBLE
CAP...AND WEAK TRIGGERS SUCH AS LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES...OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...AND WEAK HARD TO TIME SHORTWAVES. POPS ARE LOW OVERALL
DUE TO STRONG ORGANIZED FORCING...BUT 1500-2500 J/KG WILL BE
AVAILABLE IF WE BREAK THE CAP...AND A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS
BY QUITE A BIT NORTH OF I-69 AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH GIVEN
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...FRONTAL LIFT...AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
SUPPORT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT WEAKER INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY AND LAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL OCCUR AS AN
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR WEST AND A BROAD
TROUGH SETTLES INTO NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL KEEP
COOLER AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
SETTLE CLOSER TO 80 DEGREES...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING BACK DOWN INTO
THE 50S (MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE).

&&

.MARINE...

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAINTAIN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN TERMS OF
THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE WARM
AND STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE OPEN WATERS UNDER A WEAK WIND FIELD.
THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STABLE LOW LEVEL PROFILE WILL THEN
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE LIGHT WINDS AND LOW WAVES THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 131 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

//DISCUSSION...

AS WITH THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...TIMING AND PROBABILITIES OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR THE TAFS.
THE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS NOW LOCATED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND NE
WISCONSIN WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE S-SE THIS MORNING. CURRENT TRENDS
SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM IS PROPAGATING MORE TO THE SOUTH...SUGGESTING
WESTERN LOWER MI STANDS THE BETTER CHANCES OF EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION. AT THIS STAGE...WILL INCLUDE A PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN ONLY THE MBS TAF EARLY THIS MORNING AND MONITOR TRENDS BEFORE
ADDING THEM TO THE REMAINDER OF THE TAFS.

A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SRN MI AND INCREASING DAYTIME
INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN PROVIDE CHANCES OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE DEGREE OF RESIDUAL MORNING CLOUD COVER
AND CONVECTION FROM UPSTREAM ACTIVITY WILL ALSO PLAY A ROLE INTO
COVERAGE OF LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...MIZ047-MIZ048-MIZ053-MIZ060-MIZ061-MIZ062-
     MIZ063-MIZ068-MIZ069-MIZ070-MIZ075-MIZ076-MIZ082-
     MIZ083...UNTIL 9 PM FRIDAY.

     HEAT ADVISORY...MIZ049-MIZ054-MIZ055...UNTIL 9 PM FRIDAY.

LAKE HURON...NONE.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....HLO
MARINE.......MR
AVIATION.....SC

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 4, 4:26 PM EDT, 12 hours 9 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
426 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

MIZ047-048-053-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-052030-
MIDLAND-BAY-SAGINAW-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER-ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-
OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE-
426 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING STATEMENT FOR DETAILS.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE WITH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH AND HAIL TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. STORM MOTION WILL BE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AT 20
TO 25 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THURSDAY THOUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

MIZ049-054-055-052030-
HURON-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-
426 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. PLEASE
SEE THE LATEST EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING STATEMENT FOR DETAILS.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE WITH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH AND HAIL TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. STORM MOTION WILL BE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AT 20
TO 25 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THURSDAY THOUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464-052030-
ST. CLAIR RIVER-DETROIT RIVER-LAKE ST. CLAIR-
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI-
LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT
BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND 5NM
OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER SAGINAW
BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
426 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
HURON AND LAKE ST CLAIR.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE WITH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH AND HAIL TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. STORM MOTION WILL BE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AT 20
TO 25 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

DRK

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 5, 4:15 AM EDT, 20 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
415 AM EDT THU JUL 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0407 AM     TSTM WND DMG     GAINES                  42.87N 83.91W
07/05/2012                   GENESEE            MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            3-4 INCH DIAMETER TREES DOWN. TRAMPOLINE PICKED UP BY
            WIND AND MOVED INTO NEIGHBORS YARD.

&&

OROW

Local storm report, Jul 5, 4:27 AM EDT, 8 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
427 AM EDT THU JUL 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0404 AM     TSTM WND GST     FLINT                   43.02N 83.69W
07/05/2012  M57 MPH          GENESEE            MI   ASOS

            ASOS AT FLINT BISHOP AIRPORT

0414 AM     TSTM WND GST     HOWELL                  42.61N 83.94W
07/05/2012  M48 MPH          LIVINGSTON         MI   AWOS

            AWOS SYSTEM AT HOWELL AIRPORT

&&

OROW

Local storm report, Jul 5, 4:30 AM EDT, 5 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
430 AM EDT THU JUL 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0423 AM     TSTM WND GST     FLINT                   43.02N 83.69W
07/05/2012  M64 MPH          GENESEE            MI   ASOS

            MEASURED BY ASOS AT FLINT BISHOP AIRPORT

&&

OROW

The office that day

Everything else NWS Detroit, MI issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 5, 2:54 AM EDT	Heat Advisory	DTX	Huron, Sanilac, Tuscola	10 hr
Jul 5, 3:16 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DTX	Saginaw, Shiawassee	66 min
Jul 5, 3:43 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DTX	Genesee, Oakland, Saginaw, Tuscola	66 min
Jul 5, 3:50 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DTX	Livingston	70 min
Jul 5, 4:10 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DTX	Lapeer, Oakland	65 min
Jul 5, 4:27 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DTX	Washtenaw, Wayne	63 min
Jul 5, 4:38 AM EDT	Special Marine Warning	DTX		97 min
Jul 5, 4:54 AM EDT	Special Marine Warning	DTX		73 min
Jul 5, 5:29 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DTX	Monroe	24 min
Jul 5, 1:07 PM EDT	Heat Advisory	DTX	Huron, Sanilac, Tuscola	32 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Michigan, 2012 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.