Gale Warning 23, NWS Detroit, MI

871 
WHUS73 KDTX 100203
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1003 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

...GALES DEVELOPING OVER LAKE HURON EARLY THIS MORNING...

.LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS FROM THE MID MISS VALLEY 
TO NEAR LAKE ERIE BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING 
NORTHEAST WINDS NORTH OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE HURON. IT 
APPEARS WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY REACH GALE FORCE GENERALLY OVER THE 
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LAKE...WITH FUNNELING UP SAGINAW BAY ALSO 
MAXIMIZING WIND SPEED. WILL UPGRADE THE GALE WATCH TO A WARNING AND 
RETAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE REMAINING NEARSHORE ZONES.
AS THE SUSTAINED ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL WAVE HEIGHT 
DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN LAKE HURON...CLIMBING IN EXCESS OF 
10 FEET ON FRIDAY.

LHZ441-101415-
/O.EXP.KDTX.SC.Y.0058.000000T0000Z-120810T0200Z/
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-120811T0000Z/
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-
1003 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. A GALE WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 28 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH GUSTS UP TO 34 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 11 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 16 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 9 AM EDT FRIDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 11 AM EDT FRIDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ421-422-101415-
/O.EXP.KDTX.SC.Y.0058.000000T0000Z-120810T0200Z/
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-120811T0000Z/
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
1003 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. A GALE WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 29 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 11 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 16 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 9 AM EDT FRIDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 11 AM EDT FRIDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ362-363-462-101415-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-120811T0000Z/
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND
5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF
SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
1003 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 29 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 11 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 16 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 9 AM EDT FRIDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 11 AM EDT FRIDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ442-443-101415-
/O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0058.000000T0000Z-120811T1200Z/
HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
1003 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY.

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 24 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH GUSTS 
  UP TO 28 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL 
  BE 9 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 13 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 2 AM EDT FRIDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 5 AM EDT FRIDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

166 
WHUS73 KDTX 100809
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
409 AM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS TODAY OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON...

.LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE 
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. AREA OBSERVATIONS FROM EARLY THIS 
MORNING SHOW THAT WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO GUST TO GALE FORCE 
OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON AND SAGINAW BAY...AND EXPECT THE STRONG 
WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WHEN THE LOW LIFTS NORTH 
INTO ONTARIO AND BEGINS TO WEAKEN. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT 
FOR CENTRAL LAKE HURON AND SAGINAW BAY...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES 
REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS AT THE SOUTHERN END OF 
THE LAKE. THE STRONG WINDS AND UNSTABLE MARINE ENVIRONMENT WILL 
ALLOW WAVE HEIGHTS TO BUILD IN EXCESS OF 10 FEET TODAY BEFORE SLOWLY 
SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.

IN ADDITION...COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE AREA 
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THIS COLDER AIR SITTING OVER THE VERY WARM 
LAKE WATERS WILL GENERATE QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY TODAY...MAKING 
WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON...SAGINAW BAY...LAKE 
ST CLAIR...AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE.

LHZ421-422-102100-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-120811T0000Z/
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
409 AM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH GUSTS UP TO 36 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 11 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 16 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 12 PM EDT FRIDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 12 PM EDT FRIDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ362-363-441-462-102100-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-120811T0000Z/
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND
5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF
SHORE-PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
409 AM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 29 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH GUSTS UP TO 36 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 11 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 16 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 10 AM EDT FRIDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 12 PM EDT FRIDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ442-443-102100-
/O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0058.000000T0000Z-120811T1200Z/
HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
409 AM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY.

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 24 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH GUSTS 
  UP TO 30 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL 
  BE 9 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 13 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 1 PM EDT FRIDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EDT FRIDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

HLO

924 
WHUS73 KDTX 101941
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
341 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

...NORTHEAST GALES TO PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING...

.LOW PRESSURE WILL REACH ITS PEAK INTENSITY THIS EVENING AS IT
WOBBLES ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO NEAR THE SOUTH TIP OF LAKE
HURON. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO GALE FORCE OVER
CENTRAL LAKE HURON JUST NORTH OF THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER...BUT
THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING AS THE LOW BEGINS TO
WEAKEN. WAVES WILL REMAIN HIGH INTO SATURDAY AS NORTHERLY FLOW
PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING LOW.

IN ADDITION...COLD AIR ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. THIS COLDER AIR SITTING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM
LAKE WATERS WILL GENERATE QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY...MAKING 
WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE.

LHZ421-422-110000-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-120811T0000Z/
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
341 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS
  UP TO 30 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS. THE
  LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 11 FEET WITH A
  POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 16 FEET.

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EDT FRIDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EDT FRIDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ362-363-441-462-110000-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-120811T0000Z/
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND
5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF
SHORE-PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
341 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 29 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 11 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 16 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EDT FRIDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EDT FRIDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ442-443-110745-
/O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0058.000000T0000Z-120811T1200Z/
HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
341 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY.

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 23 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH GUSTS 
  UP TO 27 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL 
  BE 9 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 13 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EDT FRIDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 4 PM EDT FRIDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

DG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
123 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

STEADY RAIN OF THIS MORNING WILL BE MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE AREA OF RAIN EXPANDS/INTENSIFIES TO OUR SOUTHWEST
AND PIVOTS INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
MAIN SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE REGION. SO...RAIN WILL BE PREVALENT
FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SLOW DISSIPATION LATE IN THE FORECAST
AS DRIER AIR IT GRADUALLY WRAPPED INTO THE UPPER LOW THAT DEVELOPS
OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. WITH THIS RAIN...EXPECT IFR TO MVFR CIGS FOR
THE MOST PART.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 349 AM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PROGRESSIVE LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ANCHORED BY THE ARRIVAL OF A
ROBUST PV ANOMALY JUST NOW ENTERING NORTHERN MN WILL ALLOW AN
ANOMALOUS CLOSED UPPER LOW TO TAKE RESIDENCE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN BY TONIGHT.  THIS PRONOUNCED PATTERN ADJUSTMENT WILL
TRANSLATE INTO A PERIOD OF COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS BEGINNING
TODAY.

SEVERAL WEAKER SHORTWAVES STREAMING OUT AHEAD OF THE LARGER SYSTEM
WILL PULL THROUGH THE LOWER PENINSULA TODAY.  THIS WORKING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE BROADER ASCENT TIED TO SUSTAINED BUT GENERALLY
WEAK 850-700MB ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE POCKETS OF RAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  THE INITIAL STAGES OF
THE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH (SOUTHERN
IL/IN) TO ENSURE LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW HOLDS FIRM LOCALLY THROUGH
THE PEAK HEATING CYCLE.  A FEW ELEVATED CELLS MAY BE ABLE TO EMERGE
ABOVE A RELATIVELY STABLE SFC-850 MB GIVEN THE DEGREE OF ASCENT AT
THIS LEVEL...BUT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WILL BE CONFINED SOUTH OF
THE BORDER TODAY.  LIMITED INSOLATION TODAY GIVEN THE CLOUDS/
SHOWERS...WITH THE NORTHEAST GRADIENT CAPPING THE MIXING POTENTIAL.
THIS WILL CONFINE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S.

AFORMENTIONED CLOSED LOW WILL PINWHEEL INTO THE LOWER PENINSULA
TONIGHT.  STRENGTHENING HEIGHT FALL REGION AS THE WAVE SHIFTS TO A
MORE NEUTRAL POSITION WILL BRING THE ASSOCIATED DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO DURING THIS TIME.  12Z NAM DEPICTS A
MUCH DEEPER/SLOWER SOLUTION RELATIVE TO THE OTHER ARRAY OF GUIDANCE
BY 12Z FRI...PULLING A 1002 MB WAVE INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATE
TONIGHT.  REGARDLESS...ALL SOLUTIONS ESTABLISH A STRONG MID LEVEL
RESPONSE AT SOME POINT THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...PROVIDING A DEEP
LAYER OF MID LEVEL FGEN/DEFORMATION.  THIS DEGREE OF FORCING INTO A
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE PROFILE WOULD SUPPORT INCREASING
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.  WHILE THIS SETUP WILL PRESENT
AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL WITH A DEEP/WARM SATURATED
LAYER AND PW VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES...CHALLENGE REMAINS IN DEFINING
THE LOCATION.  THE NAM SOLUTION WOULD PROVIDE A NARROW WINDOW FOR
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO IMPINGE ON THE OHIO BORDER COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT...WITH IT/S NORTHERLY TRACK SHIFTING THE LOW/TRIPLE POINT
ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR.  GIVEN LITTLE OTHER MODEL SUPPORT AND THE
NOCTURNAL TIMING...THE PROBABILITY OF ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION
INCHING NORTH OF THE BORDER REMAINS QUITE LOW.

LONG TERM...

OUR SEASONABLY STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ON FRIDAY
OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES (500 MB LOW CENTER BOTTOMING OUT AROUND
564 DAM)...AND SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LOOKS TO BE IN EXCELLENT POSITION
FOR THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE/SHOWERS WITH NICE WARM CONVEYOR BELT
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE FLUX OFF WARM WATERS OF LAKE
HURON MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS (SEE 00Z
REGIONAL GEM). 00Z NAM STILL SHOWING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO
MENTION THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST (LI'S -2 TO -3 C...CAPES UP TO
1000 J/KG)...EVEN INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE NEARLY STACKED LOWS WILL BE SLOW TO PULL AWAY ON SATURDAY...AND
THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS.

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST CONFLUENT FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE (EURO) CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A DRY
SUNDAY...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY REMAINS DISPLACED SUFFICIENTLY FAR
ENOUGH TO OUR WEST...AND DOES NOT REALLY SWING THROUGH UNTIL MONDAY.
DID NOT REALLY LIKE THE BLENDED GRIDS RECEIVED FOR SUNDAY AND
BEYOND FOR HIGHS...AND UPPED TEMPS BY 2 DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF TEMPS HIT 80 DEGREES ON SUNDAY. ON THE
FLIP SIDE...INSOLATION WILL HAVE TO WORK ON SATURATED GROUND FROM
WHAT WE ASSUME WILL BE A GOOD SOAKING RAIN FROM THE TODAY-SATURDAY
PERIOD. ALSO...STILL NEED TO FACTOR IN THE POSSIBILITY THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW MAY BE A BIT SLOWER TO PULL AWAY THAN INDICATED...SEE 84
HR PANEL OF 00Z NAM.

MARINE...

A LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS FROM THE MID MISS VALLEY
TO THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS NORTH OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE
HURON.  THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WIND GUSTS TO REACH GALE FORCE
OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE LAKE...AS WELL AS DOWN INTO SAGINAW BAY
GIVEN THE FAVORABLE WIND TRAJECTORY AND POSSIBLE CHANNELLING
ENHANCEMENT.  THE SUSTAINED ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL
WAVE HEIGHT DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN LAKE HURON...CLIMBING IN
EXCESS OF 10 FEET ON FRIDAY.  SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR WAVES WILL
BEGIN BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM
     PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY.

     GALE WATCH...LHZ362-LHZ363-LHZ421-LHZ422-LHZ441-LHZ462...FROM 8 AM
     FRIDAY TO 10 PM FRIDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT
     HURON...UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......MR

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
355 AM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-100830-
MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER-
ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE-
355 AM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...BUT LOCATIONS TOWARD
THE THE OHIO BORDER WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS
STORM MOTION WILL BE 10 MPH OR LESS.

A DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY EXITS ON SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464-100830-
ST. CLAIR RIVER-DETROIT RIVER-LAKE ST. CLAIR-
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI-
LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT
BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND 5NM
OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER SAGINAW
BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
355 AM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
HURON AND LAKE ST CLAIR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
HURON...INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY. SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR
DETAILS. SUBSEQUENTLY...THERE IS ALSO AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...BUT LOCATIONS OVER
LAKE ERIE WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS STORM MOTION
WILL BE KNOTS OR LESS.

A DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING FOR CENTRAL
LAKE HURON...INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN
PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE HURON. REFER TO
THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILS.

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY EXITS ON SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SF

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1019 AM EDT THU AUG 09 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1014 AM     FLOOD            DETROIT                 42.38N 83.11W
08/09/2012                   WAYNE              MI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CURB TO CURB FLOODING ON I96 WESTBOUND LANE BETWEEN I75
            AND I96.

&&

DELLIOTT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1021 AM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

MIZ060>063-068>070-075-076-091630-
SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER-ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-
WASHTENAW-WAYNE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OWOSSO...FLINT...LAPEER...PORT HURON...
HOWELL...PONTIAC...WARREN...ANN ARBOR...DETROIT
1021 AM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

...STEADY RAIN TO BRING MINOR LOCALIZED FLOODING...

STEADY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
AROUND NOON. WHILE MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE IN
INTENSITY...SOME POCKETS OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL LEAD TO LOCALIZED
PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS AND POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING IN
POORLY DRAINED AREAS.

DRIVE WITH CARE THIS MORNING AS TRAVEL WILL BE SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT
DO TO THE FALLING RAIN AND WET OR FLOODED ROADWAYS. REMEMBER NEVER TO
CROSS A FLOODED ROAD AS THE DEPTH OF THE WATER CAN BE DIFFICULT TO
JUDGE.

DG