Alert archive / Michigan / Gale Warnings in 2012
Gale Warning 10, NWS Detroit, MI
NWS Detroit, MI issued this gale warning at Jan 27, 2012, 3:52 PM EST. It took effect at Jan 28, 2012, 1:00 PM EST. It was in force for 15 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Jan 27, 2012, 3:52 PM EST (20:52 UTC)
- In effect from
- Jan 28, 2012, 1:00 PM EST
- Expired
- Jan 29, 2012, 4:00 AM EST
- In force
- 15 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Detroit, MI
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
443 WHUS73 KDTX 272052 MWWDTX URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 352 PM EST FRI JAN 27 2012 ...WESTERLY GALES SET FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON... .A DEEP SURFACE THROUGH WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS FORECASTED TO BE DYNAMIC...WITH A FRESH MIXED ARCTIC AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOT FORECASTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG BUT ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE HIGHLY EFFICIENT. WESTERLY WINDS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED 35 KNOTS. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL AREA WATERS...WITH A START TIME OF 18Z. WINDS WILL EASE WITH TIME SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT CONTINUED COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS RELATIVELY CHOPPY THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. LHZ361>363-462>464-280915- /O.UPG.KDTX.GL.A.0007.120128T1200Z-120129T0400Z/ /O.NEW.KDTX.GL.W.0010.120128T1800Z-120129T0900Z/ LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- 352 PM EST FRI JAN 27 2012 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A GALE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 11 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 16 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 6 PM EST SATURDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 10 PM EST SATURDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS. && $$ LHZ422-280915- /O.UPG.KDTX.GL.A.0007.120128T1200Z-120129T0400Z/ /O.NEW.KDTX.GL.W.0010.120128T1800Z-120129T0400Z/ INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI- 352 PM EST FRI JAN 27 2012 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 11 PM EST SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A GALE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 11 PM EST SATURDAY. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 27 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 36 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 2 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 2 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 4 PM EST SATURDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 4 PM EST SATURDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS. && $$ LCZ460-LEZ444-280915- /O.UPG.KDTX.GL.A.0007.120128T1200Z-120129T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KDTX.GL.W.0010.120128T1800Z-120129T0400Z/ LAKE ST. CLAIR- MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI- 352 PM EST FRI JAN 27 2012 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 11 PM EST SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A GALE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 11 PM EST SATURDAY. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 27 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 5 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 7 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 1 PM EST SATURDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 2 PM EST SATURDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS. && $$ LHZ421-441>443-280915- /O.UPG.KDTX.GL.A.0007.120128T1200Z-120129T0400Z/ /O.NEW.KDTX.GL.W.0010.120128T1800Z-120129T0400Z/ OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER SAGINAW BAY-PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI- HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI- 352 PM EST FRI JAN 27 2012 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 11 PM EST SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A GALE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 11 PM EST SATURDAY. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 28 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 36 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 6 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 8 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 4 PM EST SATURDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 7 PM EST SATURDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS. && $$
4 follow-up statements
861 WHUS73 KDTX 280851 MWWDTX URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 351 AM EST SAT JAN 28 2012 ...WESTERLY GALES TODAY AND TONIGHT... .MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND BECOME STRONG BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE THIS MORNING. A 12 TO 18 HOUR PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL AVERAGE 8 TO 10 FEET ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE HURON WHERE THE WESTERLY FETCH IS GREATEST. ALL GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT. THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY A BRIEF DECLINE IN WINDS EXPECTED BEFORE A STRONG WESTERLY BREEZE REDEVELOPS BEHIND ANOTHER TROUGH THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. PERIODS OF MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LHZ361>363-462>464-282100- /O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0010.120128T1800Z-120129T0900Z/ LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- 351 AM EST SAT JAN 28 2012 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY... A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 9 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 13 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 7 PM EST SATURDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 1 AM EST SUNDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS. && $$ LHZ422-282100- /O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0010.120128T1800Z-120129T0400Z/ INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI- 351 AM EST SAT JAN 28 2012 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING... A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 23 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 37 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 1 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 1 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EST SATURDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 7 PM EST SATURDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS. && $$ LCZ460-LEZ444-282100- /O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0010.120128T1800Z-120129T0400Z/ LAKE ST. CLAIR- MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI- 351 AM EST SAT JAN 28 2012 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING... A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 22 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 36 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 3 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 4 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 1 PM EST SATURDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 4 PM EST SATURDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS. && $$ LHZ421-441>443-282100- /O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0010.120128T1800Z-120129T0400Z/ OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER SAGINAW BAY-PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI- HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI- 351 AM EST SAT JAN 28 2012 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING... A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 36 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 5 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 7 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 2 PM EST SATURDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 9 PM EST SATURDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS. && $$
620 WHUS73 KDTX 282056 MWWDTX URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 355 PM EST SAT JAN 28 2012 ...WESTERLY GALES TONIGHT... .A SOLID WESTERLY GALE EVENT IS ONGOING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT SYSTEM THAT PASSED THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM SO WINDSPEEDS WILL SETTLE OVERNIGHT. A SECONDARY IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE PASSAGE OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO REDEVELOPING WESTERLIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THE WINDS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 30 KNOTS ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON. LHZ361>363-462>464-290900- /O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-120129T0900Z/ LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- 355 PM EST SAT JAN 28 2012 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY... A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 9 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 13 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 7 PM EST SATURDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 2 AM EST SUNDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS. && $$ LHZ422-290400- /O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-120129T0400Z/ INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI- 355 PM EST SAT JAN 28 2012 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING... A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 23 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 37 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 1 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 1 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EST SATURDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 7 PM EST SATURDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS. && $$ LCZ460-LEZ444-290400- /O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-120129T0400Z/ LAKE ST. CLAIR- MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI- 355 PM EST SAT JAN 28 2012 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING... A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 22 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 3 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 4 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EST SATURDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 4 PM EST SATURDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS. && $$ LHZ421-441>443-290400- /O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-120129T0400Z/ OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER SAGINAW BAY-PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI- HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI- 355 PM EST SAT JAN 28 2012 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING... A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 36 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 5 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 7 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EST SATURDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 10 PM EST SATURDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS. && $$
084 WHUS73 KDTX 282208 MWWDTX URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 508 PM EST SAT JAN 28 2012 ...WESTERLY GALES TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT... .WESTERLY GALES...GUSTING TO 35 TO 40 KNOTS...WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A RAPIDLY DEPARTING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE OVERNIGHT...BUT REMAIN RATHER GUSTY. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO LEAD TO LOW WATER CONDITIONS OVER THE WESTERN LAKE ERIE BASIN...WITH WATER LEVELS RISING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH THE SUBSIDING WINDS. LEZ444-290900- /O.NEW.KDTX.LO.Y.0004.120128T2208Z-120129T0900Z/ /O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-120129T0400Z/ MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI- 508 PM EST SAT JAN 28 2012 ...LOW WATER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY... ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A LOW WATER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY. * LOW WATER: AT 3 PM THE WATER LEVEL ON THE WESTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE WAS 3 INCHES ABOVE THE CRITICAL MARK FOR SAFE NAVIGATION. THE WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW THE CRITICAL MARK EARLY THIS EVENING...AND REMAIN BELOW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 3 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 4 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 5 PM EST SATURDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 5 PM EST SATURDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS. A LOW WATER ADVISORY MEANS WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW AVERAGE. MARINERS SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION AND TRANSIT AT THE SLOWEST SAFE NAVIGABLE SPEED TO MINIMIZE IMPACT. && $$ LHZ361>363-462>464-290900- /O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-120129T0900Z/ LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- 508 PM EST SAT JAN 28 2012 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY... A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 9 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 13 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 7 PM EST SATURDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 2 AM EST SUNDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS. && $$ LHZ422-290400- /O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-120129T0400Z/ INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI- 508 PM EST SAT JAN 28 2012 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING... A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 22 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 1 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 1 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 5 PM EST SATURDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 7 PM EST SATURDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS. && $$ LCZ460-290400- /O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-120129T0400Z/ LAKE ST. CLAIR- 508 PM EST SAT JAN 28 2012 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING... A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 33 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 3 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 4 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 5 PM EST SATURDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 5 PM EST SATURDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS. && $$ LHZ421-441>443-290400- /O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-120129T0400Z/ OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER SAGINAW BAY-PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI- HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI- 508 PM EST SAT JAN 28 2012 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING... A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 36 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 5 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 7 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 5 PM EST SATURDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 10 PM EST SATURDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS. && $$ DG
555 WHUS73 KDTX 290356 MWWDTX URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1056 PM EST SAT JAN 28 2012 ...WESTERLY GALES TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT... .WESTERLY GALES...GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS...WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON LATE TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 25 KNOTS AT TIMES. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO LEAD TO LOW WATER CONDITIONS OVER THE WESTERN LAKE ERIE BASIN...WITH WATER LEVELS RISING LATE TONIGHT WITH THE SUBSIDING WINDS. LEZ444-290900- /O.EXP.KDTX.GL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-120129T0400Z/ /O.CON.KDTX.LO.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-120129T0900Z/ MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI- 1056 PM EST SAT JAN 28 2012 ...LOW WATER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY... ...GALE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 11 PM EST THIS EVENING... THE GALE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 11 PM EST THIS EVENING. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 18 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 3 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 4 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 10 PM EST SATURDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 10 PM EST SATURDAY. A LOW WATER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY. * LOW WATER: AT 10 PM THE WATER LEVEL ON THE WESTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE WAS 44 INCHES BELOW THE RECENT AVERAGE LEVEL OR 20 INCHES BELOW THE CRITICAL MARK FOR SAFE NAVIGATION. THE WATER LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RISE OVERNIGHT. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LOW WATER ADVISORY MEANS WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW AVERAGE. MARINERS SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION AND TRANSIT AT THE SLOWEST SAFE NAVIGABLE SPEED TO MINIMIZE IMPACT. && $$ LHZ422-290500- /O.EXP.KDTX.GL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-120129T0400Z/ INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI- 1056 PM EST SAT JAN 28 2012 ...GALE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 11 PM EST THIS EVENING... THE GALE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 11 PM EST THIS EVENING. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 21 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 31 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 1 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 1 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 10 PM EST SATURDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 10 PM EST SATURDAY. $$ LCZ460-290500- /O.EXP.KDTX.GL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-120129T0400Z/ LAKE ST. CLAIR- 1056 PM EST SAT JAN 28 2012 ...GALE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 11 PM EST THIS EVENING... THE GALE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 11 PM EST THIS EVENING. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 18 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 27 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 3 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 4 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 10 PM EST SATURDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 10 PM EST SATURDAY. $$ LHZ421-441>443-290500- /O.EXP.KDTX.GL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-120129T0400Z/ OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER SAGINAW BAY-PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI- HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI- 1056 PM EST SAT JAN 28 2012 ...GALE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 11 PM EST THIS EVENING... THE GALE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 11 PM EST THIS EVENING. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 32 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 4 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 6 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 10 PM EST SATURDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 10 PM EST SATURDAY. $$ LHZ361>363-462>464-290900- /O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-120129T0900Z/ LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- 1056 PM EST SAT JAN 28 2012 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY... A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 29 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 38 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 9 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 13 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 10 PM EST SATURDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 2 AM EST SUNDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS. && $$ DG
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this gale warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Detroit, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Jan 27, 1:07 PM EST, 2 hours 45 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jan 27, 1:07 PM EST, 2 hours 45 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
107 PM EST FRI JAN 27 2012
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
VERY STOUT DRY AIR ADVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN...EVIDENCED BY STEADILY RISING CEILING HEIGHTS AND A
CLEARING LINE THAT IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WITH INCREASED
INSOLATION WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME RATHER GUSTY WITH MAGNITUDES
RANGING BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KNOTS. FOR TONIGHT...A FILLING SURFACE
LOW/TROUGH WITH GOOD CONNECTION IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE ATMOSPHERE
WILL ADVANCE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A WELL DEVELOPED
SUBSIDENCE BUBBLE IS PROGGED TO DESCEND INTO THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE
AND HOLD OFF PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE NIGHT. LATEST
TIMING OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FORCING BRINGS A GOOD BURST OF SNOWFALL
FOR ALL TAF SITES RIGHT BEFORE 12Z. IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES AND
CEILING HEIGHTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A 3 TO 4 HR PERIOD BETWEEN 11
AND 15Z. THE AVIATION WEATHER TO BE CONCERNED WITH LATE SATURDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON WILL BE STRONG WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS IN THE WAKE
OF THE QUICK HITTING SYSTEM.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS DROPPING BELOW 5000 FEET BY 10Z
SATURDAY.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PTYPE OF SNOW SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 405 AM EST FRI JAN 27 2012
SHORT TERM...TODAY
ALTHOUGH THE NARROW BAND OF DEFORMATION THAT BROUGHT PERSISTENT
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-69 HAS WANED IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...MID LEVEL DEFORMATION AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO RESULT IN AN EXPANSION IN
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE FROM SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TO SOUTHEAST INDIANA.
WITH RADAR ECHOES FILLING IN NICELY AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING INCREASES
AND THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF
THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR THE DETROIT METRO AREA.
THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WAS POSITIONED ALONG AN ADRIAN TO PONTIAC LINE AT
07Z THIS MORNING. EAST OF THAT LINE...RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO ALL
SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH ONLY A DUSTING TO A COUPLE
TENTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED SINCE BOTH FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL BE
ON THE DECLINE BY THE TIME THE CHANGEOVER OCCURS. THIS INCLUDES THE
CITY OF DETROIT WHICH WILL BE AMONG THE LAST TO CHANGE OVER.
ACCUMULATIONS AWAY FROM THE CITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO ONE INCH
TOWARD THE I-69 CORRIDOR...WITH UP TO 2 INCHES NORTH OF THERE.
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING AS THE
WELL-DEFINED BACK EDGE WORKS THROUGH THE CWA...CLEARING THE ENTIRE
AREA BY 15Z. SNOWFALL RATES WILL MOSTLY BE LIGHT...ALTHOUGH ENHANCED
SYSTEM RELATIVE CONVERGENCE/DESCENT AND WEAK FGEN ALONG THE BACK
EDGE OF THE SYSTEM WILL FAVOR A BRIEF BURST OF MODERATE RATES AND
MAYBE A QUICK COUPLE TENTHS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION BEFORE COMING TO AN
END.
CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AS A DEEP LAYER
OF SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE RIDGE...BUT
ANY BREAK WILL BE BRIEF AS MID AND HIGH CLOUD AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHEAST MI BY THIS EVENING. LOWERED HIGHS A
FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWA WHERE A COUPLE INCHES
OF SNOWCOVER WILL TEMPER MAX T POTENTIAL.
LONG TERM... TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY
THE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT EASTWARD QUICKLY DURING
THE EVENING WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CLOSE BEHIND. THIS
SHORT WAVE WILL FEED OFF OF A DEEPENING LONG WAVE PATTERN THAT WILL
RESULT IN LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPMENT OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST TODAY AND THEN INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY.
THIS PROCESS DOES HELP ADD SOME CONFIDENCE TO MODEL SOLUTIONS
CLUSTERING TOWARD FASTER TIMING AND MORE OF AN OPEN SURFACE WAVE AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER, THIS TREND STILL
MAINTAINS A PUNCH IN THE WIND FIELD BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WITH STRONG GUSTS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. UNTIL THEN, THERE
IS THE QUESTION OF HOW MUCH SNOW TO EXPECT BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT.
THE PRIMARY FORCING FOR THE SNOW WILL BE ATTRIBUTED TO SYSTEM
RELATIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH ADEQUATE MOISTURE AROUND 2 G/KG
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY ON THE 285K THETA SURFACE. THIS SUPPORTS MODEL
QPF IN THE 0.1-0.2 RANGE AS THE WAVE MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH SE
MICHIGAN. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF TODAY'S SYSTEM, MODEL THICKNESS
FIELDS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE OUR AREA SOLIDLY IN ENOUGH
COLD AIR FOR ALL SNOW AND SYSTEM TOTALS IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE.
THE EXCEPTION COULD BE A HIGH END ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 3 INCHES
SAGINAW VALLEY AND NORTHERN THUMB WHERE THE WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE
WILL LAST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TRENDS IN THE MODEL SURFACE PRESSURE SOLUTIONS
FAVOR MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE WITH THE SATURDAY SYSTEM, BUT CONCERNS
REMAIN FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS ON ITS HEELS DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY STRONG
SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC DESCENT/COLD ADVECTION. THIS, ALONG WITH
A MODEST ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT, WILL DIRECT HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR
TOWARD THE SURFACE WITH MODEL SOUNDING INDICATION 35 KNOT WIND GUSTS
EASILY REACHABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AT
THIS POINT, ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE ON THE HIGH END OF
EXPECTATIONS BEFORE THINGS SETTLE DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT ONLY TO BE
FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TOWARD SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.
MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD WITH THIS SYSTEM CONSIDERING IT IS EVEN
SMALLER THAN THE SATURDAY SYSTEM. IT ALSO APPEARS TO BE
CORRESPONDINGLY WEAKER WITH LESS MOISTURE AND PRESENTS ONE OF THOSE
HIGHER POP LOWER QPF SCENARIOS OFFERING SNOW ACCUMULATION GENERALLY
LESS THAN AN INCH BY SUNDAY EVENING.
OUR GOING FORECAST OF DRY CONDITIONS WITH MAX TEMPS CONFINED TO THE
MID AND UPPER 20S REMAINS ON TRACK FOR MONDAY, AS DOES THE WARMING
TREND EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE A STRONG REBOUND IN UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AS THE LONG WAVE PATTERN TRANSITIONS TOWARD A MORE ZONAL
CONFIGURATION LASTING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
MARINE...
AN ACTIVE PATTERN OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MAINTAIN INCREASED
WINDS AND WAVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
FIRST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION TODAY AND DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 KNOT
GUSTS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE LAKE HURON OPEN WATERS BUT THEN
DIMINISH QUICKLY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO
MOVE THROUGH DURING SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS
THAT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH GALE FORCE THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING. THE LATEST TRENDS INDICATE THE CORE OF STRONGEST WINDS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN LAKES REGION BUT WITH AT LEAST A SHORT
PERIOD OF GALES POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH AS WELL. A GALE WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT DURING THIS TIME FOR ALL MARINE AREAS.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...
GALE WATCH...LHZ361-LHZ362-LHZ363-LHZ421-LHZ422-LHZ441-LHZ442-
LHZ443-LHZ462-LHZ463-LHZ464...FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 11 PM
SATURDAY.
LAKE ST CLAIR...
GALE WATCH...FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...
GALE WATCH...FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY.
&&
AVIATION.....CB
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....BT
MARINE.......JVC/BT
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).Hazardous weather outlook, Jan 27, 4:27 AM EST, 11 hours 25 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 427 AM EST FRI JAN 27 2012 MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-280930- MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER- ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE- 427 AM EST FRI JAN 27 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. A FEW REPORTS OF 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 69 BUT THIS WILL BE THE UPPER END OF THE RANGE AS SNOW LASTS A LITTLE LONGER THERE COMPARED TO POINTS TO THE SOUTH. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING THE PATTERN OF SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW A STRONG COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT. LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464-280930- ST. CLAIR RIVER-DETROIT RIVER-LAKE ST. CLAIR- MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI- LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER SAGINAW BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI- PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI- PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI- LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- 427 AM EST FRI JAN 27 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE HURON AND LAKE ST CLAIR. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE AREAS SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT. BT YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
Nearby
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.