Severe Thunderstorm Warning 96, NWS Des Moines, IA

091 
WWUS53 KDMX 252136
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
436 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

IAC007-185-252215-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0096.000000T0000Z-120525T2215Z/
WAYNE IA-APPANOOSE IA-
436 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN
APPANOOSE AND EASTERN WAYNE COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

AT 432 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTH OF CORYDON...OR 24 MILES WEST OF
CENTERVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CENTERVILLE...SEYMOUR...PROMISE CITY...PLANO...NUMA...CINCINNATI...
  MYSTIC...RATHBUN LAKE AND EXLINE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE FOR LARGE HAIL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE
OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A REINFORCED BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 4058 9339 4069 9338 4075 9338 4090 9307
      4090 9296 4059 9281
TIME...MOT...LOC 2136Z 255DEG 41KT 4065 9326
WIND...HAIL <50MPH 1.00IN

$$

BEERENDS

542 
WWUS53 KDMX 252142
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
442 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

IAC007-185-252215-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0096.000000T0000Z-120525T2215Z/
WAYNE IA-APPANOOSE IA-
442 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN
APPANOOSE AND SOUTHEASTERN WAYNE COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

AT 441 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SEYMOUR...OR 17 MILES WEST OF CENTERVILLE...
MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  SEYMOUR...PROMISE CITY...PLANO...NUMA...CINCINNATI...MYSTIC AND
  EXLINE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE FOR LARGE HAIL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE
OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A REINFORCED BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 4058 9330 4072 9329 4080 9304 4080 9291
      4059 9281
TIME...MOT...LOC 2143Z 255DEG 41KT 4065 9315
WIND...HAIL <50MPH 1.00IN

$$

BEERENDS

407 
WWUS53 KDMX 252150
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
450 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

IAC007-185-252200-
/O.CAN.KDMX.SV.W.0096.000000T0000Z-120525T2215Z/
WAYNE IA-APPANOOSE IA-
450 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN APPANOOSE AND
SOUTHEASTERN WAYNE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.

LAT...LON 4058 9330 4072 9329 4080 9304 4080 9291
      4059 9281
TIME...MOT...LOC 2150Z 255DEG 41KT 4067 9305

$$

BEERENDS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
310 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT/
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES AS 850-700 MB THETA-E
ADVECTION INTENSIFIES UNDER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WARM FRONT
CURRENTLY IS STUCK JUST SOUTH OF I-70 BUT IT SHOULD BEGIN MOVING
NORTH OVERNIGHT. CURRENT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THIS
EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 35 KT WEST OF I-35...AND
ELEVATED/MOST UNSTABLE CAPE INCREASES FROM 1000 J/KG TO NEAR 2500
J/KG. THE FOCUS SHOULD INITIALLY BE OVER WEST CENTRAL IOWA AND THEN
LIFTING EAST/NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET VEERS
NORTHEAST. STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED SO TORNADO THREAT IS NIL
AND THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS IS NOT HIGH. SUFFICIENT SHEAR IS
AVAILABLE EVEN WITH ELEVATED STORMS FOR SOME STORM ROTATION SO LARGE
HAIL IS POSSIBLE. MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AS SHORT WAVE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE
KANSAS CONVECTION LIFTS NORTHEAST. AS A RESULT...SHOWER CHANCES ARE
CONTINUED UNTIL MORNING...BUT THE MAIN SHOW SHOULD BE THIS EVENING
SOUTHWEST HALF TRANSITIONING TO THE NORTHEAST HALF MIDNIGHT TO 3 AM.
GIVEN SURFACE WARM FRONT IS DELAYED...MUGGINESS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS COULD EXCEED THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN SOME AREAS...WHICH
WOULD BE WELCOME.

.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
FORECAST REMAINS A BIT COMPLEX INTO SATURDAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH THE STATE.  SOME ONGOING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AT THE STATE
OF THE DAY AS STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW IMPACTING THE BOUNDARY HELPS TO
MAINTAIN CONVECTION.  STORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY
LATE MORNING AS CAP STRENGTHENS ACRS MUCH OF CENTRAL IOWA.  THIS
SHOULD SUPPRESS REDEVELOPMENT FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THE
WARM FRONT WILL STILL BE IN NORTHERN IA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THAT
REDEVELOPMENT WILL TAKE PLACE ACRS THE NORTH.  IF SO...THESE STORMS
WOULD LIKELY QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBLE INCLUDING TORNADOES AS SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WOULD BOTH BE
QUITE STRONG.  AGAIN...THIS IS QUITE CONDITIONAL ON STRENGTHENING
CAP ENTERING THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE SCATTERED POPS ACRS THE NORTH
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THIS POTENTIAL AND WILL CONTINUE TO
WATCH THIS SCENARIO CLOSELY.  OTHERWISE...MUCH WARMER AND HUMID AIR
WILL OVERSPREAD THE STATE WITH HIGHS SOUTH OF THE FRONT INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.  SATURDAY MAY
ACTUALLY BE MORE UNCOMFORTABLE AS DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE
HIGHER.  SOUNDINGS ON SUNDAY SUGGEST THAT MIXING WILL DRY OUT
SURFACE DEWPOINTS WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES ACTUALLY A BIT LOWER
DESPITE HIGHER TEMPS.  RECORD HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE ALSO QUITE LOW AND
SO RECORD READINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS MUCH OF CENTRAL IOWA.

UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL PUSH ACRS THE PLAINS ON
SUNDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY ARRIVING IN IA ON SUNDAY EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY PUSH EAST INTO THE STATE DURING THE
EVENING.  COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS MAIN LIFT
PULLS AWAY AND AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 MAY NOT SEE AS MUCH
CONVECTION.  SOME REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EAST ON
MONDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM SLIDES TO THE EAST.  THERE WILL BE A BREAK
LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING SLIDING THROUGH THE
REGION.   HOWEVER...ANOTHER SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS WITH INCREASING LIFT BY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE GFS AND
EURO ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT BOTH TEND TO INDICATE
THAT SURFACE LOW WILL PULL SOUTH OF IA WITH PRIMARILY SHOWERS AND
NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  COOLER WEATHER WILL ALSO BE COMMON DURING
THIS TIME WITH HIGHS AT OR BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...25/18Z
EXPECT POTENTIALLY THREE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION DRIVEN BY DEEP WARM
ADVECTION BEFORE 12Z...AND THAT WILL BE MAIN DRIVER FOR AVIATION
WEATHER. CURRENT ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH IOWA IS BASED
ABOVE 10000 FEET WITH ISOLATED THUNDER. THIS MAY DRIFT OFF TO THE
ENE BEFORE STRONGER DEVELOPED IS EXPECTED IN W AND SW IOWA WHICH
WILL MOVE EAST TO WEST 26/02Z-06Z WITH MVFR VISIBILITY. AS WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTH OVERNIGHT...LESS INTENSE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT COULD
CONTINUE WITH CEILINGS POSSIBLY APPROACHING MVFR OVER NORTH HALF OF
IOWA. EXPECT CLOUD BASES TO BE LIFTING AND BREAKING UP SATURDAY
MORNING.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...JUNGBLUTH
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...JUNGBLUTH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
324 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

IAZ033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-092>097-262030-
SAC-CALHOUN-WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-
CARROLL-GREENE-BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-
JASPER-POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-
UNION-CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-
APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
324 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. HIGH RAINFALL RATES ARE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT SOIL CONDITIONS ARE INITIALLY QUITE DRY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AND THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY. SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAYS SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE LOW AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND LATER IN THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-262030-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-
324 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND MOVE INTO NORTHERN IOWA. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND POSSIBLE. HIGH RAINFALL RATES
ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT SOIL CONDITIONS DO NOT FAVOR FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...THEN SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY. SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY...AND SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. IF STORMS DEVELOP
ON SATURDAY...ALL TYPES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING
TORNADOES. WEDNESDAYS SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES APPEAR TO BE LOW AT
THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND AT VARIOUS
TIMES THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY.

JUNGBLUTH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
336 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0324 PM     HAIL             5 SE DELPHOS            40.61N 94.28W
05/25/2012  E1.00 INCH       RINGGOLD           IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MOSTLY DIME TO NICKEL WITH SOME STONES QUARTER SIZE.

&&

CCOGIL