Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Des Moines, IA

424 
WWUS53 KDMX 142117 RRA
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
417 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

IAC001-121-142130-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0010.000000T0000Z-120414T2130Z/
MADISON IA-ADAIR IA-
417 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
ADAIR AND NORTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

AT 415 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES
WEST OF WINTERSET...OR 21 MILES NORTHEAST OF CRESTON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WINTERSET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE FOR LARGE HAIL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE
OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A REINFORCED BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED... IMMEDIATELY MOVE TO THE BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM
OF A REINFORCED BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS. TURN AROUND DON/T DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 4131 9457 4151 9407 4130 9397 4116 9445
      4116 9448
TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 246DEG 31KT 4135 9416
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

LEE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
335 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA TONIGHT AND IT WILL
BE THE FOCUS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  TORNADOES ARE MOST LIKELY
EARLY ON NEAR THE WARM FRONT WHERE THE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE
MAXIMIZED.  AS STORMS LIFT NORTHEAST...THEY SHOULD REMAIN SEVERE DUE
TO VERY HIGH SHEAR VALUES.  HIGH POPS TONIGHT WITH SEVERE WORDING.
HAVE HAD REPORTS ABOUT HEAVY RAIN FROM THE STORMS OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA. WOULD THINK AS THE DRY SLOT ARRIVES THIS EVENING DRYING
THE MID LEVELS WHICH SHOULD REDUCE PWAT AND GIVEN THE RELATIVE QUICK
SPEED OF THE CELLS...FLASH FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD THREAT.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COMPLEX BEGINNING TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH LINGERING
PRECIPITATION AND SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH LOW PRESSURE PUSHING
NORTHEAST. MODELS HAVE COME TO A DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK
OF THE LOW AND THE TIMING...PUSHING LOW INTO NE/SD/MN/IA BORDER
REGION BY 18Z SUNDAY. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO DEEPEN LOW AS IT
PULLS NORTHEASTWARD. WILL SEE PRECIPITATION LINGERING AHEAD OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY...BEFORE DRY SLOT ARRIVES. HOWEVER...HAVE
LEFT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
POTENTIAL FOR PEAK HEATING TO DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS. DECENT CAPE
AND GOOD SHEER VALUES COULD LEAD TO SOME SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BEST CHANCES ARE TO THE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS
WISCONSIN AND NE IOWA.

ANOTHER MAJOR CONCERN FOR SUNDAY IS WITH SOUTH WINDS. WILL SEE
GOOD MIXING...NEARLY UP TO 750MB IF FULL MIXING IS REALIZED. WINDS
THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER ARE 50KTS-60KTS...AND COULD SEE MIXING
REALIZED AT SURFACE. ESPECIALLY WITH DRY SLOT AND LIKELY CLEARING
SKIES. IN ADDITION...LAPSE RATES WILL BE HIGH AND FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG WINDS. WILL LIKELY NEED TO SEE A WIND ADVISORY...POSSIBLY
A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH CONVECTIVE CONCERNS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS HAVE NOT
ISSUED WIND HEADLINES WITH THIS PACKAGE.

FOR MONDAY....MODELS CONTINUE TO PULL LOW NORTH...BUT HAVE SLOWED
TIMING AND DISAGREE ON HOW FAR NORTH LOW REACHES BY 06Z MONDAY.
HAVE LEFT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION. HAVE
DECREASED CHANCES FOR MONDAY AS LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM
REGION. BEHIND LOW COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH IN...WITH 850MB
TEMPS NEAR -2 DEGREES C FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED COOL
TREND FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH COLD PUSH OF AIR. MAY NEED
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES FOR OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTH. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS QUICKLY WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

ZONAL FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A SHORTWAVE PUSHING
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE TAKEN OUT PRECIP CHANCES AS BEST
MOISTURE REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN MO BUT COULD SEE
SOME LIGHT RAIN. NEXT BIG SYSTEM WILL COME TOWARDS MID WEEK AS
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
CURRENT TRACK IS ACROSS DAKOTAS/NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING ACROSS IOWA WEDNESDAY. A BRIEF
BREAK IN PRECIP BEFORE YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS AND BRINGS PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. STILL UNCERTAINTY IN MODELS...AND HAVE
LEFT MOSTLY CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING FOR POPS THROUGH
EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...14/18Z
THE STRATUS DECK OVER NORTHERN IOWA WAS RAPIDLY DISSIPATING AND
BECOMING SCATTERED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS ACROSS SOUTHERN
IOWA WERE ALSO GRADUALLY IMPROVING BUT WERE STILL IN THE IFR/MVFR
RANGE. CEILINGS WILL ONLY GRADUALLY IMPROVE ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE ANVILS FROM STORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST LIMITING
ANY RADIATIONAL BURN OFF. THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA
WILL TRACK INTO WESTERN IOWA THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA
IN THE EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...WITH LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE. THESE STORMS
WILL PULL OUT OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH VERY STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF AT LEAST 25G35KTS SETTING IN BY MIDDAY TOMORROW.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...KS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
318 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

IAZ033-044-045-057-058-070-071-081-082-092-093-152030-
SAC-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-CASS-ADAIR-ADAMS-UNION-TAYLOR-
RINGGOLD-
318 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR TONIGHT. LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THERE ARE ALSO CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE IS LOW.

STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS SPEEDS AND GUSTS WILL APPROACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-034>039-046>050-059>062-072>075-083>086-
094>097-152030-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-CALHOUN-WEBSTER-
HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-GREENE-BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-
DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-POWESHIEK-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-CLARKE-
LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
318 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR TONIGHT. LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW.

STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS SPEEDS AND GUSTS WILL APPROACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
310 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     HAIL             7 NNW CARBON            41.14N 94.87W
04/14/2012  E1.00 INCH       ADAMS              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTS QUARTER SIZED HAIL HAS BEEN
            FALLING FOR ABOUT FIVE MINUTES.

&&

LEE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
328 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

IAZ070-071-081-082-142100-
ADAIR-ADAMS-CASS-UNION-
328 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA...

AT 321 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER NORTH CENTRAL ADAMS COUNTY...MOVING EAST AT
40 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...FREQUENT DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  BRIDGEWATER...        FONTANELLE...         ORIENT...
  GREENFIELD...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS
TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS
PASSED.

THIS STORM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL AND WINDS.
IF YOU OBSERVE SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE REPORT IT IMMEDIATELY TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
AREA.

SKOW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
353 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 N CORNING             41.07N 94.74W
04/14/2012                   ADAMS              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FARM OUTBUILDING DESTROYED BY EITHER WIND OR TORANDO. THE
            EVENT WAS NOT OBSERVED.

&&

JJOHNSON