Special Weather Statement, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
643 AM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012

.AVIATION...12Z ISSUANCE...
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EAST OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING. LOW END VFR CEILINGS AROUND 3-4
KFT WILL BE COMMON TODAY WITH PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS/CEILINGS
ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS IN THE RAIN/STORMS. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY...MAINLY ALONG A LINE FROM KBRD TO
KDLH TO KHYR. THE RAIN/STORMS WILL END WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

MAIN FORECASTING CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW POSSIBLY
SEVERE...ACROSS THE SRN COUNTIES OF THE NORTHLAND...AND ALSO THE
POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS ALL OF NE MN AND NW WI TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO BE POSITIONED OVER THE MID MS
VALLEY REGION THIS MORNING AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS WRN SD/NE
AND A LARGE MCS RIDES EWD ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE LOW/E-W
ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONT...WHICH EXTENDS EWD INTO SRN MN.

THE STATIONARY/WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD INTO CENTRAL MN/WI TODAY
WITH THE MAIN SFC LOW TRACKING EWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND A ROBUST
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ADVECTING NWD AHEAD OF THE LOW INTO THE
WARM/UNSTABLE SECTOR OF SRN MN/WI. A NUMBER OF INGREDIENTS WILL
COME TOGETHER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING THAT WILL ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS AREAS OF
MN...AND EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO NRN WI TONIGHT. LARGE SCALE
FORCING WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG UPWARD MOTION...WITH MUCH OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST IN THE RRQ OF THE UPPER JET AND THE PASSAGE OF A
SHARP 500MB S/W AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX. IN THE MID LEVELS...A
STRONG AREA OF F-GEN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER W-CENTRAL MN AND
TRANSITION EWD IN RESPONSE TO THE FORMATION OF A STRONG BAROCLINIC
ZONE AS WARM AIR ADVECTS NWD OVER ERN NE/WRN IA INTO SRN
MN...AND COUPLES WITH A LARGE COLD POOL OVER ERN ND/FAR NW MN
FROM THE REMNANTS OF THE MCS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS.

CURRENTLY THERE IS AN AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT HAS
DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF NW MN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MCS...MAINLY
IN RESPONSE TO STRONG WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTH OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THIS
MORNING AND GRADUALLY SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE THE RAPID SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THAT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE WARM FRONT IN WRN/CENTRAL MN. 40-50 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
COMBINED WITH ML CAPE VALUES 2000-3000 J/KG...STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW TORNADOES. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN APPEARS TO BE ALONG A
CORRIDOR FROM ALEXANDRIA...TO NEAR BRAINERD/LITTLE FALLS TO
HINCKLEY...AND EVENTUALLY EWD TO PHILLIPS AND SECTIONS OF NRN WI.
THE EXACT LOCATION AND NWD PUSH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL PLAY A LARGE
ROLE IN DETERMINING THE AREA THAT WILL SEE THE STRONGEST
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

THE OTHER CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE TRACK OF THIS MCS...CURRENTLY
IN THE WRN DAKOTAS. THE COMBINATION OF THIS BROAD AREA OF MDT
RAINFALL AND MORNING/AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR UPWARDS
OF 1-2 INCHES OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EITHER. MUCH OF THE REGION
IS ALREADY SATURATED FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS...SO RAPID
ACCUMULATIONS FROM THESE STORMS TODAY COULD PROVE DETRIMENTAL TO
SOME AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM LATE
TONIGHT AND DRIES CONDITIONS OUT. SATURDAY WILL BE A VERY PLEASANT
DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND A LIGHT
NORTH WIND.

LONG TERM...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS RESULTS IN A WAVY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TO DOMINATES THE EXTENDED FCST...WITH SURFACE HIGHER PRESSURE
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LONG TERM MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT A
FEW FAST MOVING SHORT WAVES TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
WEEK PROVIDING A FEW SHOTS AT ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTORMS. ALTHOUGH
MODELS ARE KNOW FOR POOR PERFORMANCE IN TIMING AND TRACK OF THESE
FAST MOVING WAVES IN THE EXTENDED...HAVE KEPT BROADBRUSH SMALL POPS
SUNDAY...AND AGAIN WED.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  75  58  77  58 /  80  80  10  10
INL  73  54  80  54 /  70  10  10  20
BRD  78  59  81  60 /  80  70  10  10
HYR  86  58  79  54 /  60  70  10  10
ASX  78  57  76  55 /  50  80  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

GRANING

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
417 AM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-071030-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
417 AM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

...SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. SOME
OF THESE STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM
AROUND THE BRAINERD LAKE REGION EASTWARD TO HINCKLEY AND INTO
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW TORNADOES. ALSO...HEAVY RAIN IS VERY LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH
OF A LINE FROM PARK RAPIDS TO MOOSE LAKE TO BUTTERNUT...INCLUDING
THE TWIN PORTS AREA. PLEASE MONITOR THE FORECAST AND ANY UPDATES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LSZ121-140>148-071030-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
417 AM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...MAINLY AROUND
THE TWIN PORTS AREA AND ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE.

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM AROUND
TWO HARBORS EASTWARD ALONG THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA AND ACROSS THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

TENTINGER

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
656 AM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012

MNZ019-020-034>038-WIZ001-061300-
CARLTON/SOUTH ST. LOUIS-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-CROW WING-DOUGLAS-NORTHERN
AITKIN-PINE-SOUTH AITKIN-SOUTHERN LAKE/NORTH SHORE-
656 AM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012

...CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE TWIN PORTS...

AT 650 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES NORTH OF
CROMWELL TO DADS CORNER TO 16 MILES WEST OF ERSKIN LAKE...MOVING EAST
AT 35 MPH.

THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP
TO 30 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS PRODUCING A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH IN AN HOUR...

* THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  AUTOMBA AND CROMWELL BY 700 AM...
  RONALD BY 705 AM...
  BROOKSTON BY 715 AM...
  PINE CENTER AND BURNETT BY 720 AM...
  KETTLE RIVER AND SAGINAW BY 725 AM...
  SAWYER AND GARRISON BY 730 AM...
  TWIG BY 735 AM...
  DULUTH BY 800 AM...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK
SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

LAT...LON 4615 9307 4614 9343 4624 9344 4624 9380
      4615 9382 4615 9411 4642 9380 4682 9322
      4704 9191 4656 9227 4606 9267 4604 9307

TENTINGER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
849 AM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012

MNZ020-037-038-WIZ001-002-006-007-061430-
BAYFIELD-BURNETT-CARLTON/SOUTH ST. LOUIS-DOUGLAS-PINE-SOUTHERN
LAKE/NORTH SHORE-WASHBURN-
849 AM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012

...THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE TWIN PORTS..

AT 845 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MUNGER TO 5 MILES
EAST OF RIVERSIDE...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  DULUTH...             MINONG FLOWAGE...
  CHESTER PARK DULUTH...                      DULUTH...
  ARNOLD...             SUPERIOR...
  SAINT CROIX FLOWAGE...                      SOUTH RANGE...
  LESTER PARK DULUTH... LAKEWOOD TWP...       WASCOTT...
  SOLON SPRINGS...      HAWTHORNE...          GORDON...
  BENNETT...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK
SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

LAT...LON 4676 9256 4700 9176 4695 9174 4686 9196
      4678 9207 4673 9204 4669 9196 4670 9182
      4674 9170 4672 9166 4622 9150 4607 9227

STEWART