Special Weather Statement, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
704 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012

.AVIATION.../00Z TAF ISSUANCE/
AN ACTIVE NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE NORTHLAND...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE
WILL LIKELY BE IN THE SOUTH...FROM KBRD TO KHYR. THINGS WILL QUIET
DOWN LATER IN THE NIGHT...AND INTO MONDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTTY
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTH ON
MONDAY. SOME MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...BUT
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012/

SHORT TERM...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS BISECTING THE FA AT 19Z
FROM NW TO SE. MEANWHILE...A SFC LOW WAS DEEPENING IN NORTH
CENTRAL SD WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN MN WITH A
TROF INTO THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WERE
ADVECTING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW IN WAA REGIME. WEAK
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE LOW ATTM DUE TO CLOUD COVER LIMITING
DIURNAL HEATING. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY IS INDICATING SOME
CB'S TRYING TO FORM IN NW MN JUST W OF THE FA AT 19Z.

MODELS ARE INDICATING AN MCS MAY DEVELOP IN WEST CENTRAL MN NEAR THE
ND/SD BORDERS AND SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FA BEFORE
03Z. HAVE BROKEN POPS DOWN INTO 3HR BLOCKS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POTENTIAL AND ITS IMPACTS ON THE FA. THE MCS SHOULD TRAVEL OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA AND HAVE PLACED A MENTION OF SEVERE FROM THE
BRAINERD LAKES INTO THE PINE CITY AND SIREN AREAS THIS EVENING AS
THIS APPEARS TO BE THE AXIS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL. HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE OVER NW WI...ESPECIALLY S OF HIGHWAY 77 FROM MINONG TO
HURLEY FROM 06Z TO 12Z MONDAY.

AFTER THE MCS PASSES...THE COLD FRONT FOLLOWS MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THESE STORMS WILL BE MORE OF THE
GENERAL VARIETY AS THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE FA WILL HAVE BEEN WORKED
OVER BY THE DEPARTING MCS. HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE FROPA. A
BREAK IN THE ACTION COMES MONDAY EVENING AS WEAK RIDGING FOLLOWS
INTO THE AREA AFTER FROPA. HOWEVER...MODELS INDICATE MORE WAA DRIVEN
STORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 06Z AHEAD OF A SFC WARM FRONT. THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE IN THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA E TO THE
GRANTSBURG/SIREN AREA ONCE AGAIN. HAVE POPS ALIGNED TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS TREND.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAIN SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURE MOST OF THIS WEEK IS ANOMALOUS MID LVL
RIDGE PARKED OVER ERN CONUS. THIS CIRCULATION SHOULD PROMOTE
SIGNIFICANT TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE FROM THE WRN GULF OF MEX TOWARDS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE UTILIZED BY A MID LVL
TROF/SFC LOW TUES/WED. SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER CTRL PLAINS
AND MOVE INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS LATE TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MAKE
ITS WAY INTO THE  SRN EDGE OF THE CWA BY LATE IN THE DAY. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD OCCUR ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT
NORTH OF WARM FRONT. ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE AS FRONT
APPROACHES WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION POTENTIAL INCREASING. ENOUGH
DEEP LYR SHEAR TO PRESENT OPPORTUNITY FOR HAIL/WIND THREAT. MAX
TEMPS IN LOW 90S ARE POSSIBLE OVER SERN WISC WITH 60S LIKELY ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE...NORTH OF WARM FRONT WITH ONSHORE FLOW. STORMS MAY
PERSIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON HOW EXTENSIVE CAPPING WARM
LAYER BECOMES. STRONG CONSENSUS AMONG MDL SUITE THAT SFC LOW WILL
TRACK ACROSS CWA WEDNESDAY. DEEP LAYER OF LIFT PROVIDED BY SFC/MID
LVL FEATURES SHOULD ENSURE AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN SOMEWHERE IN THE
REGION CONSIDERING PWATS ENTRAINED INTO SYSTEM CIRCULATION.THURSDAY
SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF DRYING AS SFC HIGH MOVES ACROSS REGION.
SOME  EARLY MORNING SHOWERS MAY SKIRT THE NRN ZONES IN MN SO LOW
POPS STILL IN FCST AT THIS TIME. SFC HIGH MOVES EAST FRIDAY WITH
WARM ADVECTION REGIME DEVELOPING. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY PRECIP MAY
RETURN FRI/SAT BUT ONLY LOW POPS AT THIS TIME AS CONFIDENCE ON LARGE
SCALE PATTERN IS DECREASING.

AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR EARLY THIS AFTN BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE AND SHOWERS/STORMS
ARRIVE FOR OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF STORMS IS NOT
GREAT CONSIDERING POTENTIAL FOR LARGEST CLUSTER OF INTENSE STORMS
TO BE LOCATED ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF CWA...OR FARTHER SOUTH.
MAJORITY OF PREVAILING PRECIP SHOULD PASS THRU TAF SITES BY 12Z
MONDAY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE ACROSS REGION TOMORROW SO CLOUDS MAY BE
TOUGH TO CLEAR.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  59  76  59  71 /  80  30  30  60
INL  59  75  55  72 /  30  20  10  50
BRD  64  81  61  80 /  80  20  50  70
HYR  65  82  63  85 /  80  30  30  60
ASX  62  79  61  75 /  80  40  20  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DAP
AVIATION...DAP

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