Special Weather Statement, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
150 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE
NORTHLAND THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT...CAUSING THE
SHOWERS/STORMS TO END FROM WEST TO EAST. CIGS WILL BE IN THE
MVFR/VFR RANGE...WHILE VSBYS IN THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE IN THE
IFR/MVFR RANGE. SOME FOG...ESPECIALLY AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR...WILL
REDEVELOP AND LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR
OUT BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 907 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012/

UPDATE...
INCREASED STRESS ON THUNDER AND HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE AREA INTO
EARLY EVENING. SLOWLY DECREASED EMPHASIS...USING SCATTERED WORDING
WEST OF THE IRON RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SHORT TERM...
PERSISTENT MCC IS PRODUCING LOCAL ONE-HOUR RAINFALLS OVER 2 INCHES
IN AND JUST EAST OF THE UPPER ST CROIX VALLEY. UP TO AN INCH AN
HOUR CONTINUES TO FALL OVER THE IRON RANGE. CONTINUED INFLOW OF
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF AND FALLING STABILITIES
SUGGEST THAT THUNDER COULD CONTINUE. BACK-BUILDING OF THUNDER IS
BECOMING VIGOROUS WEST AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST OF THE IRON RANGE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012/

AVIATION...12Z TAFS

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING
WITH PERIODS OF MVFR LOW CIGS AND VISBYS DUE TO HEAVY RAIN. THESE
STORMS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITH ANOTHER ROUND FORMING AROUND
20Z ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR
FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012/

SHORT TERM...SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE THE
MAIN SHORT TERM FOCUS TODAY.

AT 330 AM...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE FOUND ACROSS
NE MN. FURTHER WEST...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING FROM THE
RED RIVER VALLEY INTO WESTERN MN. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW WARNINGS
SO FAR THIS MORNING...BUT HAVE BEEN FAIRLY LIMITED AS THE STORMS
HAVE BECOME ELEVATED DURING THE NIGHT. INTENSE LLJ OF 50+ KNOTS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH CONTINUED ELEVATED STORM
DEVELOPMENT.

THE 00Z/06Z MODELS ARE HAVING A BIT OF A TOUGH TIME DEPICTING THE
CURRENT CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. THE 4 KM NMM WRF ACTUALLY
DOES REASONABLY WELL...BUT IS TOO SLOW AND HAS LESS PCPN THAN
CURRENTLY ONGOING. THINK THE CURRENT MCS WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE CWA THIS EARLY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING GIVEN PROPAGATION AND
FAVORABLE MCS MAINTENANCE NUMBERS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ELEVATED
STORMS PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL.

THE FOCUS FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH SOME POSSIBLE HEAVY
RAIN. ACTUALLY FEEL FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WITH THE 4 KM NMM WRF
SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY...IN TERMS OF COVERAGE AND CONVECTIVE MODE.
NAM MUCAPE VALUES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON RISE TO AOA 3000
J/KG...AND IT APPEARS IT WILL DEFINITELY BE SURFACE BASED. SPC HAS
A 10 PERCENT TORNADO RISK INTO PINE COUNTY...WITH A 30 PERCENT
HAIL AND WIND. BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST NORTH AND EAST OF
THE GREATEST RISK AREA. NONETHELESS...IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A
VERY ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS MUCH
OF MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACH AROUND 1.6 INCHES...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE CWA. RIVER LEVELS ARE
STILL ELEVATED IN MOST AREAS...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE STORMS WILL
AT LEAST BE TRANSITORY...AND WILL BE PUSHING OUT OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING ALREADY. THIS WILL DEFINITELY HELP TO LESSEN THE
FLOODING THREAT...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES. HAVE DROPPED TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES...CLOSER TO MOS GUIDANCE. FRIDAY SHOULD BE GENERALLY
DRY...WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S FOR MOST AREAS.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL STORM
SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM
TO LONG RANGE MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES. HOWEVER...THEY DO AGREE THAT
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT. SHEAR AND INSTABILITIES WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SPC HAS
ALREADY INCLUDED OUR CWA IN A SEE TEXT FOR THE DAY 3 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK. WE LOOK TO DRY OUT A BIT ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE NEXT STRONG
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE IN ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS FAST MOVING ZONAL
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL MORE
CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. FLOODING MAY BECOME AN ISSUE BY NEXT
WEEK AS THE GROUND BECOMES MORE SATURATED. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AOA SEASONALLY NORMS FOR MID JUNE.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  55  79  58  78 /  70  10  20  60
INL  54  79  55  80 /  40  10  40  50
BRD  57  84  62  82 /  50  10  40  60
HYR  62  86  63  85 /  70  10  40  50
ASX  60  83  61  85 /  70  10  20  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...BERDES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
145 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-151030-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
145 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

IN THE WAKE OF MORNING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION...ADDITIONAL
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A DISTURBANCE
AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE DAKOTAS. THE PRIMARY THREATS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY STORMS FROM MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH TORNADOES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. THE AREA AT GREATEST RISK FOR TORNADOES WILL BE IN THE
VICINITY OF A NORTHWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...FROM
THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA...EASTWARD TO PINE CITY...HINCKLEY...
HAYWARD AND SPOONER. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING...AND WITH THE ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN THAT HAS
ALREADY FALLEN IN SOME LOCALES THIS MORNING...SOME FLOODING OR FLASH
FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THE STORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEARLY EVERY DAY FROM SATURDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT
IS TOO EARLY AT THIS TIME TO DETERMINE SPECIFIC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...IT CERTAINLY APPEARS THAT THERE IS AT
LEAST SOME RISK FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL THIS
WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
PERSISTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO LATE
THIS EVENING,MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LSZ121-140>148-151030-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
145 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOCALLY HIGHER WAVES SHOULD
DIMINISH BY MID AFTERNOON.  ADDITIONAL STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR FROM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLY NEARLY EVERY DAY FROM SATURDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

 MILLER

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>