Special Weather Statement, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
306 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

.SHORT TERM...[NOW - TUESDAY NIGHT]

AT 300 PM CDT...THERE WAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR FAR
SOUTHEASTERN MANITOBA. THE NORTHLAND HAD LIGHT TO SLIGHTLY GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A FRONT THAT HAD MOVED EAST OF THE
FA. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES COVERED MUCH OF THE FA...EXCEPT
WHERE THERE WAS OVERCAST SKIES NEAR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL FA. TEMPERATURES WERE MOSTLY IN THE
60S AND 70S.

SEVERE WEATHER IS THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THANKS TO
SOME PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...SURFACE TO ML LAYER INSTABILITY OF 1000
TO 1500 J/KG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA THIS
AFTERNOON. EFFECTIVE BULK WIND SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS HAS
DEVELOPED...AND THE COMBINATION OF THE INSTABILITY HAS PRODUCED
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A HISTORY OF GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL.
THERE HAVE BEEN NUMEROUS REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL...AND THE INFLUX OF
COLDER AIR ALOFT IS MAKING IT EASIER FOR THESE STORMS TO PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL. IN COORDINATION WITH THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER...ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN FA...INCLUDING ALL OF NORTHWESTERN
WISCONSIN...THROUGH 8 PM CDT. THINK THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE OR MOVE OUT OF THE FA EARLY THIS EVENING...SO DO
NOT FORESEE NEEDING TO EXTEND THE WATCH.

TONIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY MOVE EAST FROM
SOUTHEASTERN MANITOBA TO NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SHOWERS AND
STORMS COULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT...MOSTLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN FA. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY INCREASE LATE TONIGHT.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE FA WILL BE IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW.
GUSTY WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE RATHER COOL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S...THANKS TO
THE CLOUD COVER. THERE MAY BE RAIN SHOWERS DUE TO THE LOW
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...[WEDNESDAY - SUNDAY]

SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE FA WEDNESDAY UNDERNEATH WEAK RIDGING
ALOFT. EVEN THOUGH A LARGE UPPER LOW BECOMES CUTOFF OVER IA BY
THURSDAY NIGHT...THIS IS FAR ENOUGH S OF THE FA TO KEEP THE SFC
HIGH LOCKED IN PLACE. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MODELS DIVERGE
IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE CUTOFF LOW AND ITS IMPACT ON THE FA. HAVE
USED A BLEND FOR POPS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS

BULK OF THE CIGS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR. INVOF STORMS...GUSTY SFC
WINDS...SOME HAIL POSSIBLE. EXPECT STORMS TO EVOLVE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND AFFECT KBRD/KDLH/KHYR THROUGH 00Z/29. AFTER
00Z...VFR UNTIL 12Z-15Z WHEN MVFR CIGS AND GUSTY SFC WINDS WILL
DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LOW MOVE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  44  53  37  58 /  50  40  10  10
INL  43  45  34  60 /  50  50  10  10
BRD  48  53  38  61 /  20  30  10  10
HYR  48  58  38  60 /  50  40  10  10
ASX  48  56  40  56 /  50  40  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM....GSF
AVIATION...GSF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
342 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-291200-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
342 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN AND
EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WHERE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS ARE LARGE
HAIL...AS WELL AS BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. PLEASE STAY
TUNED TO THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
ON THE SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION. WEAKER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND LATE THIS EVENING...BUT ONLY SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED TODAY THAT FLOODING CONTINUED TO AFFECT
PARTS OF DOUGLAS AND PINE COUNTIES DUE TO THE HEAVY RAINS THAT
FELL THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND LATE SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

LSZ121-140>148-291200-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
342 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BE SEVERE NEAR THE TWIN PORTS AREA AND ALONG THE SHORELINE
OF NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN...WHERE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS
IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS ARE
LARGE HAIL...AS WELL AS BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. PLEASE
STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE ON THE SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION. WEAKER STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND LATE THIS EVENING...BUT
ONLY SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

GROCHOCINSKI

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
434 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

MNZ026-035-282200-
NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTH ITASCA-
434 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

...STRONG STORM WITH HAIL...

AT 433 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SPLIT HAND LAKE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30
MPH.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP TO PENNY SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS
UP TO 30 MPH...BRIEF MODERATE DOWNPOURS...

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BLACKBERRY AND GUNN BY 450 PM...
  WARBA BY 455 PM...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS
PASSED.

LAT...LON 4726 9346 4714 9315 4697 9346 4704 9361

GROCHOCINKSI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
434 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

MNZ038-WIZ006-282215-
BURNETT-PINE-
434 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAIN..

AT 432 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM HINCKLEY TO POKEGAMA
LAKE TO 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GREELY...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...WIND
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...

* THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  CLOVERDALE AND ROCK CREEK BY 440 PM...
  RANDALL BY 450 PM...
  GRANTSBURG AND BRANSTAD BY 455 PM...
  TRADE RIVER AND ALPHA BY 500 PM...
  DANBURY AND YELLOWLAKE BY 505 PM...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS
TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE
PASSED.

LAT...LON 4567 9289 4573 9288 4572 9313 4573 9315
      4577 9315 4605 9293 4606 9228 4573 9246
      4572 9252 4565 9252 4564 9254 4564 9288

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
444 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0234 PM     HAIL             ASKOV                   46.19N 92.78W
05/28/2012  E0.50 INCH       PINE               MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DCANNON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
456 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

MNZ018-019-026-282215-
CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-NORTH ITASCA-SOUTH ITASCA-
456 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

...STRONG STORM WITH HAIL...

AT 454 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BLACKBERRY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP TO PENNY SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS
UP TO 30 MPH...BRIEF MODERATE DOWNPOURS...

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BOVEY AND COLERAINE BY 505 PM...
  MARBLE AND CALUMET BY 510 PM...
  PENGILLY AND NASHWAUK BY 515 PM...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS
PASSED.

LAT...LON 4746 9341 4736 9301 4710 9329 4716 9354

GROCHOCINKSI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
458 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

MNZ037-WIZ001-282230-
CARLTON/SOUTH ST. LOUIS-DOUGLAS-
458 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN...

AT 454 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR SCOTTS CORNER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO
40 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  THOMSON BY 505 PM...
  FOND DU LAC AND ESKO BY 510 PM...
  NEW DULUTH AND OLIVER BY 515 PM...
  PROCTOR AND WEST DULUTH BY 520 PM...
  ADOLPH AND SUPERIOR BY 525 PM...
  HERMANTOWN BY 530 PM...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK
SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 4657 9256 4690 9233 4671 9201 4645 9231