Special Weather Statement, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1222 AM CDT THU MAY 3 2012

.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
MAINLY VFR WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA AFFECTING THE FA UNTIL NEAR 12Z WITH
THE STORMS DIMINISHING. SOME SCT SHRA THROUGH 23Z. HYR MAY HAVE CIGS
DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE NEAR THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 845 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2012/

UPDATE...DELAYED THE ONSET OF THUNDERSTORMS TO 02Z ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FA. HOWEVER...DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER THE FA
AND LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING TO THE NE WILL REINFORCE THE DRY AND
MAY FURTHER DELAY THUNDERSTORMS. MAY SOME MINOR TWEAKS BUT OVERALL
IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2012/

AVIATION...00Z TAFS.
VFR CIGS THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE. MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
ONSET OF PCPN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. DID LEAVE A
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 06Z AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS N
FROM CENTRAL MN. THERE IS ALSO SOME QUESTION ON HOW LONG THE PCPN
AFFECTS THE TAF SITES. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. WITH A NE WIND OFF
OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING...SOME MVFR CIGS MAY FORM AT DLH
AFTER 12Z AND LAST THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2012/

SHORT TERM...
SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHLAND THIS AFTERNOON HAS ALLOWED FOR MOSTLY
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 70S TO
EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE 80S. AT 300 PM...THE DULUTH AIRPORT
HAD REACHED 78 DEGREES. THIS IS THE WARMEST READING AT DULUTH THIS
YEAR AND THE FIRST TIME KDLH HAS BEEN ABOVE 75 DEGREES SINCE MARCH
17 TH.

FORECAST FOCUS ON POPS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. TONIGHT THE REGION
WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A COLD FRONT SLIDING SOUTH OVER
MANITOBA/ONTARIO CANADA...AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO THE SRN
ZONES. LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING ANY SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA IN
CANADA THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...THE SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN
RESPONSE TO THE WARM FRONT WILL TRACK NORTH OVER THE REGION
GENERALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. KEPT BROAD BRUSH CHC/SCT WORDING POPS
THURSDAY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
BOUNDARIES/QPF. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO WORK OUT THE DETAILS IN
THE SFC FEATURES AND SHOW LARGE RUN TO RUN CHANGES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT HOWEVER NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 20 MPH
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL RESULT IN A STRONG LAKE BREEZE THURSDAY.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL VARY GREATLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN...FROM AROUND 50 NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR...TO THE 70S INLAND. AS THE LAKE BREEZE ADVANCES WEST AND
SOUTH DURING THE DAY...EXPECT FALLING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW FAR SOUTH
OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO THE WARM AIR THE LAKE BREEZE WILL
PUSH BUT LATEST MODELS ARE SHOWING THE SFC BOUNDARY MAKES IT ALL
THE WAY OUT OF THE DLH CWA BY 21Z THURS.

EXTENDED...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL GIVE THE REGION A POSSIBILITY OF
RAIN SHOWERS TROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THE STRONGEST SHORTWAVE WILL
PASS THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 2 ON SUNDAY. THE ZONAL FLOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE
REGION THIS WEEK WILL BREAK DOWN AND MORE TROUGH-ENHANCED PATTERN
WILL DEVELOP AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A WEAK
SHORT WAVE BRINGING A POSSIBILITY FOR RAIN ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATE A COOLING TREND BEGINNING MID-WEEK AND
CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1227 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2012/

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS DLH/HIB/BRD TAFS SITES WITH MVFR
CIGS AT HYR/INL TAFS SITES. THE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
CONDITIONS BY MID-AFTERNOON AT THOSE SITES. THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
AFFECT OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DECREASE TO MVFR
AT MOST SITES WITH IFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN AREA OF
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY MIDDAY THURSDAY
IMPROVING THE CONDITIONS TO VFR AT ALL SITES.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  59  44  58  40 /  50  20  20  30
INL  63  42  60  42 /  50  20  20  20
BRD  72  50  65  46 /  40  10  30  40
HYR  75  52  64  44 /  50  20  20  30
ASX  62  45  58  41 /  50  30  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...GSF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
339 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2012

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-031030-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
339 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF OF THE
NORTHLAND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT.

LSZ121-140>148-031030-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
339 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND THURSDAY.

GRANING

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
120 AM CDT THU MAY 03 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 AM     HAIL             EMILY                   46.76N 93.96W
05/03/2012  E0.50 INCH       CROW WING          MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RBERDES

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
239 AM CDT THU MAY 3 2012

MNZ038-WIZ006-030830-
BURNETT-PINE-
239 AM CDT THU MAY 3 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT PINE AND WESTERN BURNETT COUNTIES
EARLY THIS MORNING...

AT 232 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES WEST OF
FINLAYSON TO 15 MILES WEST OF GREELY...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...WIND
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  RUTLEDGE...           FINLAYSON...          DENHAM...
  POKEGAMA LAKE...      WILLOW RIVER...       SANDSTONE...
  HINCKLEY...           GREELY...             FRIESLAND...
  WEST ROCK...          STURGEON LAKE...      PINE CITY...
  BEROUN...             ASKOV...              ROCK CREEK...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK
SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

LAT...LON 4567 9289 4573 9288 4572 9313 4598 9315
      4600 9307 4614 9306 4616 9317 4637 9306
      4638 9230 4572 9242 4572 9252 4564 9254
      4564 9288

BERDES