Severe Thunderstorm Warning 7, NWS Duluth, MN

876 
WWUS53 KDLH 182324
SVSDLH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
624 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2012

MNC001-115-182330-
/O.CON.KDLH.SV.W.0007.000000T0000Z-120518T2330Z/
PINE MN-AITKIN MN-
624 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
AITKIN AND NORTHWESTERN PINE COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

AT 619 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DADS CORNER...OR
22 MILES NORTHWEST OF HINCKLEY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  ARTHYDE...RONALD AND DENHAM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 4627 9336 4651 9318 4646 9305 4642 9305
      4642 9296 4639 9286 4618 9314
TIME...MOT...LOC 2324Z 217DEG 28KT 4633 9313
WIND...HAIL 60MPH <.75IN

$$

SENGENBERGER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
339 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2012

MSAS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS WELL DEFINED INVERTED SFC TROUGH EXTENDING
NORTHEAST FROM NE COLORADO SFC LOW. SFC WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED NORTH
TO CANADIAN BORDER NORTH OF KELO...THEN WSW TOWARDS KINL AND SOUTH
OF KFGN. CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING NEAR/NORTH OF THE BDRY NEAR LAKE
OF THE WOODS. THE DEEPENING OF THE MIXING LAYER TO 4K TO 5K FT TODAY
HAS TAPPED SOME MOMENTUM FROM ALOFT...CAUSING GUSTY WINDS OVER MOST
OF CWA. MAX TEMPS HAVE RISEN TO RECORD 87 AT KDLH..WITH NEAR 90 IN A
FEW LOCATIONS. PRONOUNCED LAKE BREEZE HAS SENT TEMPS TUMBLING AT
KSUW FROM 90 TO 79 IN THE PAST HALF HR. KDYT FELL FROM 81 TO 57 IN
20 MINUTES EARLIER TODAY.

TONIGHT....SFC PRESS GRADIENT REMAINS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH OVERNIGHT TO
KEEP SOME LEVEL OF WIND IN THE FCST. COMBINED WITH CONTINUING MOIST
ADVECTION AND SOME CLOUD DEBRIS...OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE
CLOSER TO TYPICAL CLIMO MAX TEMPS. ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
THE EXTREME NRN TIER OF THE CWA THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SOME RENEGADE DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE WRN EDGE OF
THE CWA. AN ISOLATED STRG/SVR CELL MAY DEVELOP OVER KOOCH COUNTY
THROUGH EVENING.

TOMORROW...GENERAL IDEA REMAINS IN PLAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION WITH GUSTY SRLY WINDS EXPECTED. TEMP FCST A
BIT CHALLENGING BASED ON UNCERTAINTY OF THICKNESS OF MID/HIGH LVL
CLOUD DEBRIS FROM STORMS TO WEST OF REGION. MULTI-MDL CONSENSUS
PLACES PRECIP OVER WRN THIRD OF CWA THRU EARLY AFTN. PRECIP WILL
SLOWLY PUSH EAST BY LATE AFTN. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS DIFFER
SUBSTANTIALLY AMONGST MDLS WITH EC MINIMIZING DEVELOPMENT OF
FAVORABLE SHEAR/INSTABILITY/// WHILE NAM SHOWS POTENTIAL OF PRE
FRONTAL CELLS OVER CTRL CWA BY LATE AFTN HRS. INVESTIGATION OF SREF
PLUMES SEEMS TO SUPPORT INCREASING MUCAPE/MLCAPE VALUES BUT DEEP LYR
SHEAR APPEARS TO BE LACKING FOR ANY ORGANIZATION.

TOMORROW NIGHT...SLOW MOVING FRNTL SYSTEM WILL BECOME STATIONARY AS
WAVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURS SOUTH OF CWA. THIS ALLOWS AN INCREASING
CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN ACROSS NE MN ZONES. PWATS INCREASE TO 1
TO 2 SD ABOVE NORMAL AND WITH LARGE AREA OF SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT
EXPECT AMNTS TO AVERAGE ABOVE .50 INCH IN MANY AREAS OF NE MN THRU
12Z...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMNTS.

.LONG TERM...

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST.
THE MAIN AREA OF INSTABILITY WILL BE SHUNTED TO THE EAST AHEAD AND
ALONG THE FRONT EARLY ON SUNDAY...AND LEAVE MUCH OF THE REGION UNDER
FAIRLY STABLE CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH IN LINE FOR A SUBSTANTIAL
DOUSING OF RAIN SHOWERS AS A STRONG NARROW BAND OF MID-LEVEL F-GEN
SETS UP ALONG THE NRN/NWRN SIDE OF THE SFC LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM
E-CENTRAL MN THROUGH NRN WI. THE CO-LOCATION OF THIS DEFORMATION
ZONE AND A ROBUST SUPPLY OF MOISTURE...PWATS 1-1.4 INCHES...WILL
ALLOW A SIGNIFICANT AMT OF RAINFALL TO OCCUR DURING THIS TIME. COULD
SEE AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO HALF INCH SUNDAY...ON TOP OF AN INCH OR
MORE ON SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE NERN COUNTIES LATE SUN MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN RAPIDLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW SUNDAY
NIGHT AND REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE NORTHLAND THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
AT LEAST. SOME OF THE MEDIUM/LONG RANGE MODELS...GFS AND GEM...BRING
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUE NIGHT WITH THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
S/W. HOWEVER...THE LATEST RUN...AND PREVIOUS RUNS...OF THE ECMWF
HAVE HELD OFF ANY PRECIP UNTIL WED EVENING. HAVE ADDED SLGT CHC POPS
TUE THROUGH WED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THESE WETTER
SOLUTIONS OCCURRING. A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP ARRIVES ON THURSDAY
AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NWRN PLAINS AND CENTRAL US.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 60S AND
70S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

.AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...

GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON UNDER VFR AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
COULD SEE SOME MID-LEVEL CONVECTION DEVELOP AROUND OR NORTH OF INL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. LLWS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT...AND DIMINISH BY MID MORNING SATURDAY. COULD SEE TS IN
THE VICINITY OF BRD AND INL SAT MORNING AS THE MAIN SFC TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST.

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  62  82  57  62 /   0  50  70  60
INL  61  74  48  61 /  50  70  60  50
BRD  65  78  51  63 /  10  70  70  60
HYR  61  85  61  71 /   0  10  70  60
ASX  60  85  58  70 /   0  10  60  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM....TENTINGER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
353 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2012

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-191030-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
353 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. ALTHOUGH STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE...GUSTY WINDS AND SOME HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...
BUT SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY RETURN TO THE NORTHLAND TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. IT'S TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF THESE STORMS WILL BE
SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT.

LSZ121-140>148-191030-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
353 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP NORTH OF GRAND PORTAGE EARLY
FRIDAY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...BUT SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

CANNON

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)