Severe Thunderstorm Warning 46, NWS Duluth, MN

282 
WWUS53 KDLH 102155
SVSDLH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
455 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

MNC021-035-061-102230-
/O.CON.KDLH.SV.W.0046.000000T0000Z-120610T2230Z/
CROW WING MN-CASS MN-ITASCA MN-
455 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
ITASCA...NORTHERN CASS AND NORTHWESTERN CROW WING COUNTIES UNTIL 530
PM CDT...

AT 453 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HACKENSACK...OR 28 MILES EAST OF PARK
RAPIDS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WABEDO...WALKER...LONGVILLE...WHIPHOLT...INGUADONA...BREVIK...
  WILKINSON...REMER...TOBIQUE...BOY RIVER...FEDERAL DAM...TOWN OF
  CASS LAKE...SCHLEY...BENA...WOMAN LAKE...THUNDER LAKE...LAURA
  LAKE...LEECH LAKE...BOY LAKE AND CASS LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 4740 9468 4741 9467 4742 9441 4718 9360
      4670 9432 4681 9467
TIME...MOT...LOC 2155Z 207DEG 41KT 4694 9444
WIND...HAIL <50MPH 1.00IN

$$

GROCHOCINKSI

330 
WWUS53 KDLH 102204
SVSDLH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
504 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

MNC021-035-061-102214-
/O.CAN.KDLH.SV.W.0046.000000T0000Z-120610T2230Z/
CROW WING MN-CASS MN-ITASCA MN-
504 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ITASCA...
NORTHERN CASS AND NORTHWESTERN CROW WING COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.

LAT...LON 4740 9468 4741 9467 4742 9441 4718 9360
      4670 9432 4681 9467
TIME...MOT...LOC 2204Z 207DEG 41KT 4703 9436

$$

GROCHOCINKSI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
311 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

.SHORT TERM...[NOW - MONDAY NIGHT]

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS JUST ISSUED AND IS IN EFFECT FOR
NORTHEASTERN MN THROUGH 10 PM CDT. SEE BELOW TO READ ABOUT THE
SITUATION.

THE FOCUS REMAINS THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AND WITH THE COLD FRONT IN WESTERN
MINNESOTA THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND LATER TODAY. THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS (SUCH AS THE LOCAL WRF / NCEP WRF / HRRR)
ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...SO LEANED ON A BLEND.

THROUGH TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT IN WESTERN MINNESOTA WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN SWEEP
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FA OVERNIGHT. HOT AND HUMID GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE FA...WITH DEW POINTS CLIMBING WELL
INTO THE 60S. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS RIPE FOR STORMY WEATHER.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONT AND
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN FA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST
RUNS OF SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE INDICATING A LINE
OF STORMS MOVING DEVELOPING IN WESTERN MINNESOTA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...MOVING INTO THE WESTERN FA BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM...AND
THEN SWEEPING THROUGH THE FA THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
STORM PREDICTION CENTER STILL GIVES THE NORTHLAND A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. MIXED LAYER CAPE HAS
INCREASED TO OVER 1000 J/KG OVER MUCH OF THE FA...AND COULD
POSSIBLY REACH OVER 2000 J/KG LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SO ONCE THE
CAP BREAKS...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. THE GREATER
CONCERN HAS BEEN WHAT LOOKS LIKE WILL BE THE LACK OF AMPLE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GOOD SHEAR LAGGING
BEHIND THE FRONT AND SUGGESTING THE STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY
BE LACKING IN ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A WINDOW WHERE
THE STORMS COULD TAP INTO 30 TO 40 KNOTS OF SHEAR...SO THE STORMS
COULD BEGIN AS SUPERCELLS. THINK THE STORMS WILL BEGIN AS DISCREET
STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...BUT OVER THE FIRST FEW HOURS
TRANSITION TO A LINEAR EVENT. THIS SUGGESTS THAT HAIL WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT AT FIRST...BUT THEN WIND WILL BECOME THE MAIN THREAT
BY MID EVENING. TORNADOES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE
INTIAL HOURS...BUT THE SOUNDINGS AND HODOGRPAHS INDICATE THE LOW
LEVEL SHEAR WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. THERE WILL NOT BE
MUCH  STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAIN TOO...AS THERE WILL BE
STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL MORE LIKELY BE A
THREAT IN THE INITIAL HOURS DUE TO ANY TRAINING STORMS. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT...AND SHOULD EXIT
THE EASTERN FA BEFORE DAWN.

MONDAY...A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. COLD NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHLAND ALOFT...WITH 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO 2 TO 4 DEGREES CELSIUS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN FA DURING THE AFTERNOON. INCREASED CLOUD COVER SINCE
THE LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESULT IN PLENTY OF CUMULUS
BY THE AFTERNOON. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA. THE
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT...SO LOWERED
TEMPERATURES A BIT. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 60S AND 70S.

MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE...AND THERE MAY BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA.

.LONG TERM...[TUESDAY - SUNDAY]

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER FOR THE START OF THIS
PERIOD...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED
ON TUESDAY. ON TUESDAY NIGHT...A FEW OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING
THAT PRECIPITATION COULD REACH INTO THE CWA LATER IN THE NIGHT. A
FRONT LOCATED NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS...WITH A SHORTWAVE POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME
LATE NIGHT SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. THE ECMWF IS
MUCH LESS DRAMATIC IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
NAM/GEM AND GFS ALL INDICATING A GOOD DEAL OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL BE
STICKING WITH JUST CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE FREQUENCY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND AS A
MORE SIZABLE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS WEST OF THE AREA AND
SPREADS IN OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER AT
THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND IN FACT WE WILL NEED TO
WATCH FOR SOME PATCHY FROST TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WARM
CONSIDERABLY AS THE WEEK WEARS ON...WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
RETURNING PRIOR TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE
DAKOTAS. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT...AND THEN MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. A FEW TORNADOES ARE EVEN POSSIBLE.
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL END LATER TONIGHT IN THE WEST AND
EARLY IN THE MORNING IN THE EAST.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  55  73  43  63 /  70  20  10   0
INL  53  69  40  63 /  70  40  30   0
BRD  56  72  44  66 /  60  20  10   0
HYR  60  79  45  66 /  70  10  10   0
ASX  60  78  47  63 /  70  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM....DAP
AVIATION...DAP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
311 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-111200-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
311 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
MINNESOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN SPREAD EASTWARD INTO
NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE MAY BE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA
MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

LSZ121-140>148-111200-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
311 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME STORMS COULD
BE SEVERE. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN ARE THE
MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR ON MONDAY...AND THE WINDS AND RESULTING
WAVES COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO POSE A RISK TO SMALL CRAFT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

GROCHOCINSKI

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
414 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

MNZ018-025-026-102130-
NORTH CASS-NORTH ITASCA-SOUTH ITASCA-
414 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN CASS COUNTY...

AT 411 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WALKER...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 50 MPH.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP TO PENNY SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS
UP TO 50 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WALKER...             WILKINSON...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS
TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS
PASSED.

LAT...LON 4740 9468 4741 9467 4742 9443 4776 9443
      4771 9374 4700 9448 4705 9468

KK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
429 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

MNZ018-025-026-102145-
NORTH CASS-NORTH ITASCA-SOUTH ITASCA-
429 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN CASS COUNTY...

AT 429 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES WEST OF WALKER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40
MPH.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP TO PENNY SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS
UP TO 50 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WHIPHOLT...           WILKINSON...          TOWN OF CASS LAKE...
  LEECH LAKE...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS
TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS
PASSED.

LAT...LON 4711 9467 4740 9468 4741 9467 4743 9443
      4742 9399 4696 9441 4703 9468 4710 9468

KK