Severe Thunderstorm Warning 146, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
846 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2012

.UPDATE...
A LINE OF SEVERE STORMS IS TRACKING EAST OVER MINNESOTA AT 30-40
MPH. THESE STORMS HAVE PRIMARILY PRODUCED HIGH WINDS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH...WITH A FEW REPORTS OF HAIL.

ON A CURRENT TRACK THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE OF STORM WILL
REACH LOCATIONS FROM INTERNATIONAL FALLS...TO GRAND
RAPIDS...AITKIN AND MILLE LACS LAKE AROUND 1000 PM.

THE LINE OF STORMS WILL REACH THE COMMUNITIES OF
ELY...DULUTH/SUPERIOR...HINCKLEY...AND SIREN IN THE 1100 PM TO
MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STRONG...BUT DECREASE IN SEVERITY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2012/

AVIATION.../0Z TAF ISSUANCE/

LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE MINNESOTA/NORTH
DAKOTA BORDER AT THE MOMENT WILL AFFECT BRD AND INL AROUND 02Z.
THIS LINE WILL PUSH EASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY INTO HYR BY 06Z.
EXPECT MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IN ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS BEHIND THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF IFR
CEILINGS AND WESTERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2012/

UPDATE...
HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE NORTH SHORE AND
WESTERN TIP OF LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT. CURRENT WINDS OBSERVATIONS
AT KDYT/MN081/AERIAL LIFT BRIDGE ARE REPORTING WINDS 20-25 KT
WITH 3 FOOT WAVES IN THE DULUTH CANAL. EXPECT THE WAVES TO BUILD
3 TO 5 FT THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE PERSISTENT NE WIND...THEN
SUBSIDING LATE TONIGHT AS WINDS BECOME VARIABLE WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2012/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALREADY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT AND STRONG UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO
BE WEST OF THE DULUTH CWA WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE MAXIMIZED THROUGH MID EVENING. STORMS SHOULD ORGANIZED
UPSCALE INTO AN MCS AND ROLL EASTWARD TONIGHT DRIVEN BE RATHER
STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING AND THE COLD FRONT/MCS COLD POOL.

BEST ESTIMATE RIGHT NOW IS THAT STORMS WILL REACH THE
WALKER/BRAINERD AREAS AROUND 9 PM OR SO..AND THEN CONTINUE
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT FROM THERE. GIVEN THAT AN ORGANIZED/MATURE MCS
IS EXPECTED BY THAT TIME..THE PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BE DAMAGING
WINDS WITH A LESSER RISK OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME OVERNIGHT AS COMPLEX TRANSLATES FARTHER
EASTWARD. GREATEST SEVERE RISK EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHWEST THIRD
OF THE CWA..BUT SOME LOCAL STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO
EXPECTED WITH SOME LOCAL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH OR MORE
POSSIBLE.

SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA ON SAT
AFTERNOON..BUT GREATEST SEVERE RISK ON SAT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CORE WILL BE
TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS NRN MINNESOTA SAT/SAT NIGHT..AND WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES..ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING IN
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AS DEEPER SURGE OF COOL POST FRONTAL AIR
MOVES SOUTHWARD.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG FRONT...BACKED UP BY A DIGGING TROUGH AT
UPPER LEVELS WILL BRING 850 MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO 6C OR LOWER
ALONG WITH A DRY COLUMN FROM CENTRAL CANADA.  THE SURFACE HIGH
TRACKS SOUTH OF US AND THE UPPER TROUGH IS QUITE PROGRESSIVE...SO
THE COOL SHOT WILL NOT LAST LONG.  HOWEVER...SOME OF THE MODELS
TRANSITION OUR AREA FROM A VERY STUBBORN RIDGE AXIS ALOFT TO A
NORTHWEST FLOW...AS THE RIDGE RETROGRESSES TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN.
MILD DRY WEATHER SEEMS TO LAST AS THE FLOW OFF THE ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK.  IF COOLER AIR DOES INDEED SETTLE IN
OVER THE GREAT LAKES BASIN...WEAK CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEMS COULD BRING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND SPOTTY RAINFALL SOMETIME IN THE
MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME FRAME AND AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  64  77  58  76 /  80  40  40   0
INL  61  73  51  76 /  90  60  30   0
BRD  63  75  57  77 /  90  30  20   0
HYR  69  79  56  75 /  70  60  20   0
ASX  69  80  59  74 /  70  60  40   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ141>145.

&&

SHORT TERM...GRANING

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
559 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2012

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-041100-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
559 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG TO SEVERE...WILL SPREAD EAST OVER THE
NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREAS
OF INTERNATIONAL FALLS...TO WALKER...AND THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION
AROUND 10 PM. STORMS WILL THEN CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION...REACHING THE TWIN PORTS AREA AROUND
MIDNIGHT...AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AFTER 200 AM.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...OR AN INCH OR TWO...WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN SATURDAY
MORNING.  ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PRICE COUNTY.  HOWEVER...THE GREATEST
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ON SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE FARTHER TO THE
SOUTHEAST...OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

LSZ121-140>148-041100-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
559 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH SHORE AND
WESTERN TIP OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL
BE STRONG OR POTENTIALLY SEVERE PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
LOCALLY HIGHER WAVE HEIGHTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

GRANING

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
711 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2012

MNZ010-018-025-026-033-034-040115-
CROW WING-KOOCHICHING-NORTH CASS-NORTH ITASCA-SOUTH CASS-SOUTH
ITASCA-
711 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2012

...STRONG STORMS MOVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

AT 710 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THIEF RIVER
FALLS...TO FARGO...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

AT THIS SPEED...THE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREAS OF LAKE
WINNIBIGOSHISH...WALKER...LEECH LAKE...LEADER...PEQUOT LAKES...AND
THE BRAINERD AREA AROUND 1000 PM.

IF YOU ARE IN THESE AREAS...PREPARE FOR THESE STORMS TO BRING STRONG
WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...AND POSSIBLY HAIL.

LAT...LON 4680 9480 4682 9467 4740 9468 4742 9443
      4786 9442 4783 9365 4616 9395 4615 9436
      4624 9440 4628 9435 4631 9440 4630 9455
      4634 9473 4640 9479

GRANING

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
827 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2012

MNZ010-018-025-026-033>036-040230-
CROW WING-KOOCHICHING-NORTH CASS-NORTH ITASCA-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTH
AITKIN-SOUTH CASS-SOUTH ITASCA-
827 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2012

...LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS APPROACHING THE AREA...

AT 820 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 35 MILES WEST OF
WILKINSON TO 30 MILES WEST OF ESTERDY...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

THIS LINE OF STORMS HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING STRONG TO SEVERE
WINDS AND HAIL. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STORMS WILL BE APPROACHING
THE WESTERN EDGE OF CASS AND KOOCHICHING COUNTY AROUND 9 PM CDT.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  ESTERDY...            POPLAR...             LEADER...
  TEN MILE LAKE...      TOWN OF CASS LAKE...  WILKINSON...
  WALKER...             OSHAWA...             PILLAGER...
  HACKENSACK...         CASS LAKE...          CASINO...
  BACKUS...             PHEASANT LAKE...      SYLVAN...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS
TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE
PASSED.

LAT...LON 4680 9480 4682 9467 4740 9468 4742 9443
      4782 9442 4789 9397 4744 9371 4669 9363
      4615 9386 4615 9436 4624 9440 4628 9435
      4631 9440 4630 9455 4634 9473 4640 9479

SENGENBERGER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
934 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2012

MNZ025-033>038-040315-
CARLTON/SOUTH ST. LOUIS-CROW WING-NORTH CASS-NORTHERN
AITKIN-PINE-SOUTH AITKIN-SOUTH CASS-
934 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2012

...STRONG LINE OF STORMS IN CASS AND CROW WING COUNTY...

AT 929 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES WEST OF
OSHAWA TO 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ESTERDY...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WIND
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  ESTERDY...            POPLAR...             OSHAWA...
  LEADER...             CASINO...             BACKUS...
  PILLAGER...           SYLVAN...             PINE RIVER...
  LAKE SHORE...         FORT RIPLEY...        CHICKAMAW BEACH...
  NORTH LONG LAKE...    EDWARD LAKE...
  LOWER WHITEFISH LAKE...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS
TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE
PASSED.

LAT...LON 4680 9480 4681 9467 4688 9466 4698 9304
      4596 9300 4598 9314 4600 9307 4615 9307
      4614 9343 4624 9344 4624 9380 4615 9382
      4615 9436 4624 9440 4628 9435 4631 9440
      4630 9455 4634 9473 4640 9479

SENGENBERGER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1013 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2012

MNZ025-026-033>036-040400-
CROW WING-NORTH CASS-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTH AITKIN-SOUTH CASS-SOUTH
ITASCA-
1013 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING BRAINERD LAKES REGION...

AT 1011 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES EAST OF
THUNDER LAKE TO FORT RIPLEY...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...WIND
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...

* THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  WOODROW AND WOLFORD BY 1020 PM...
  SHEPHARD AND CUYUNA BY 1025 PM...
  SWATARA AND DEERWOOD BY 1030 PM...
  HILL CITY AND PINE KNOLL BY 1035 PM...
  WAUKENABO AND PINE CENTER BY 1040 PM...
  WALDECK AND HASSMAN BY 1045 PM...
  ROSSBURG AND PALISADE BY 1050 PM...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL
THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

LAT...LON 4702 9397 4703 9314 4624 9357 4624 9380
      4616 9380 4615 9382 4615 9428 4615 9436
      4616 9438 4620 9440

BERDES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1017 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2012

MNZ018-025-026-040400-
NORTH CASS-NORTH ITASCA-SOUTH ITASCA-
1017 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING ITASCA COUNTY...

AT 1015 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES WEST OF
EFFIE TO 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SPLIT HAND LAKE...MOVING EAST AT 40
MPH.

THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...WIND
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

* THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  LA PRAIRIE AND GRAND RAPIDS BY 1025 PM...
  GUNN AND COLERAINE BY 1030 PM...
  TACONITE AND BOVEY BY 1035 PM...
  WARBA AND MARBLE BY 1040 PM...
  SWAN RIVER AND CALUMET BY 1045 PM...
  WAWINA AND PENGILLY BY 1050 PM...
  TOGO AND STONY BROOK BY 1055 PM...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL
THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

LAT...LON 4786 9309 4705 9306 4704 9370 4702 9391
      4782 9404

BERDES