Severe Thunderstorm Warning 141, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
319 PM CDT WED AUG 1 2012

.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CHANCES FOR TSRA THIS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA... THEN CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SHRA/TSRA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SAME BASIC UPPER AIR PATTERN WE/VE SEEN FOR MUCH OF THE
SUMMER... WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ENCOMPASSING MOST OF THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY RIDING ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER NEAR THE MONTANA/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIVE EAST TONIGHT... HELPING TO FINALLY PUSH THE COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY OVER MINNESOTA EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD INSTABILITY ALONG AHEAD OF THE
FRONT... WITH MLCAPE AOA 2500 J/KG. SOME INSTABILITY LAGS THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY AS WELL... WHICH IS HELPING TO KEEP ACTIVITY
GOING TO THE WEST... AND NECESSITATES LEAVING POPS IN THE FORECAST
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY EVENING AS THE UPPER WAVE
MOVES TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. WE SHOULD MANAGE TO CLEAR THE PCPN
OUT OF ALL BUT PERHAPS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
AS THE FRONT CONTINUES EAST AND A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE TRIES TO WORK
INTO THE AREA. THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT WITH
WINDS DYING AND CLOUD COVER DECREASING... BUT THAT WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON
ANY RE-WETTING OF THE GROUND WHICH CAN OCCUR WITH PCPN THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING... SO OPTED TO LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW. IT SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY OVER MOST OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...
THE ARROWHEAD COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON PCPN DEVELOP GIVEN BETTER
PROXIMITY TO THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL MOVING NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE DAY.

AFTER TOMORROW ATTENTION WILL TURN TOWARD THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY
DROPPING THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS... WORKING INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS BY FRIDAY... THEN CONTINUING EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. DECENT RETURN FLOW AND WARM
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE... AND THE NAM...
GFS... AND ECMWF ARE ARE IN REASONABLY AGREEMENT ON THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH ITS PASSAGE. THERE ARE
STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES... WHICH RESULT IN HAVING A LONGER
PERIOD BLANKETED WITH POPS THAN WILL LIKELY OCCUR... BUT AS THINGS
GET CLOSER IN TIME THOSE WILL BE REFINED AND LIKELY INCREASED FOR
THE FROPA AND SHORTWAVE ARRIVAL WHICH CURRENTLY LOOKS TO OCCUR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. INCLUDED CHANCE-LIKELY POPS
WITH THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY... THEN TAPERED THING
BACK SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES WELL TO THE EAST BUT
CYCLONIC BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND AND MID-UPPER COLD POOL LINGER
OVER THE AREA. IMPRESSIVE RIDGING LOOKS TO ARRIVE AND KEEP THINGS
BENIGN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY... WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME PCPN
MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA. THE MAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA WITH THAT FEATURE... SINCE IT APPEARS IT WILL TAKE A WHILE
FOR THINGS TO SATURATE IF THEY DO AT ALL GIVEN THE DRYNESS OF THE
ANTECEDENT AIRMASS. PCPN CHANCES SHOULD RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AS WE GET ONTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND A FEW
SHORTWAVES DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA ON THE PREVAILING
NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
/ISSUED 1259 CDT WED AUG 1 2012/
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. ABUNDANT INSTABILITY IS PRESENT
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT... HELPING TO PRODUCT THE CURRENT
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY... WHICH HAS MOVES OUT OF ALL BUT KHYR AS OF
17Z. WE COULD SEE A SECOND BATCH OF SHRA AND PERHAPS TSRA THIS
EVENING AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE NEAR THE MONTANA/NORTH DAKOTA
BORDER WORKS INTO THE AREA. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREDOMINATE... WITH PERHAPS SOME RADIATION FOG ISSUES LATER
TONIGHT... ALTHOUGH IT/S TOO EARLY TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THAT
GIVEN CLOUD CONCERNS.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  64  79  60  78 /  30  10  10  30
INL  60  79  60  78 /  20  10  20  50
BRD  63  84  62  84 /  20  10  10  50
HYR  64  82  60  82 /  40  10  10  20
ASX  66  77  61  78 /  30  10   0  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
447 AM CDT WED AUG 1 2012

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-021030-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
447 AM CDT WED AUG 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND...WITH A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A
LINE FROM HINCKLEY TO ASHLAND IN WISCONSIN. THE MAIN THREAT WILL
BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

LSZ121-140>148-021030-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
447 AM CDT WED AUG 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

TENTINGER

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1144 AM CDT WED AUG 1 2012

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 AM     HAIL             ASHLAND                 46.58N 90.87W
08/01/2012  M0.88 INCH       ASHLAND            WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

IRIS SYSTEM

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1156 AM CDT WED AUG 1 2012

WIZ003-004-011800-
ASHLAND-IRON-
1156 AM CDT WED AUG 1 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN ASHLAND AND IRON
COUNTIES THROUGH 1 PM CDT...

AT 1149 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ASHLAND
COUNTY...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS ALSO
LOCATED OVER NORTHERN ASHLAND COUNTY... MOVING INTO NORTHERN IRON
COUNTY... WHERE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
1215 PM CDT.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS IN SOUTHERN ASHLAND
AND IRON COUNTIES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MORSE...              GLIDDEN...            UPSON...
  IRON BELT...          PENCE...              MONTREAL...
  GILE...               VAN BUSKIRK...        MERCER...
  MANITOWISH...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK
SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
206 PM CDT WED AUG 1 2012

WIZ009-011930-
PRICE-
206 PM CDT WED AUG 1 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST PRICE COUNTY...

AT 202 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER SOUTH CENTRAL PRICE COUNTY...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...OCCASIONAL
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  SPIRIT...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK
SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
359 PM CDT WED AUG 1 2012

WIZ002>004-008-009-012130-
ASHLAND-BAYFIELD-IRON-PRICE-SAWYER-
359 PM CDT WED AUG 1 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN ASHLAND COUNTY...

AT 356 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SEVERAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN ASHLAND COUNTY...AND
EXTREME SOUTHEAST BAYFIELD COUNTY. THE STRONGEST STORM WAS LOCATED 8
MILES WEST OF GLIDDEN. THE STORMS WERE MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...WIND
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  GLIDDEN...            BUTTERNUT...          PARK FALLS...
  FIFIELD...            TURTLE FLAMBEAU FLOWAGE...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK
SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 4613 9016 4579 9029 4604 9108 4622 9096

MELDE