Severe Thunderstorm Warning 136, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
617 PM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS.
UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE FA WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER AND OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR ATTM. WILL EXPECT TO SEE
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT IN EASTERN ND.
ATTEMPTED TO TIME STORMS THROUGH THE TAF SITES. ANTICIPATE VFR
THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE...EVEN IN THE VCNTY OF STORMS AS THEY
REMAIN FAIRLY ELEVATED. LLWS IS POSSIBLE NEAR SUNRISE AT
DLH/HIB/BRD UNTIL ABOUT 15Z WHEN FROPA TURNS THE SFC WIND TO THE
NW AND BECOMES GUSTY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012/

SHORT TERM...
AN H85 TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH H50 VORT MAX CURRENTLY SEEN ON IR SAT
IMAGERY ROTATING OVER SRN MANITOBA...WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR
SHRA/TSTMS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
SHOW A WELL ORGANIZED AREA OF STORMS OVER ONTARIO...TRACKING SW
INTO THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD. AT THIS TIME THE STRONGEST STORMS
ARE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS QUITE HIGH WITH THE LATEST SPC
MESO ANALYSIS SHOWING 3000 J/KG MUCAPE AND INCREASING 0-1KM SHEAR
ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE DIGGING TROUGH PUSHES INTO
NW MN AROUND 06Z TONIGHT...TRACKING ACROSS NE MN AND OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. A 100 KT H25 CYCLONICALLY
CURVED JET OVER SOUTHERN MN WILL PLACE THE ZONES IN A REGION OF
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERNIGHT...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL
SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE FOUND NEAR
THE SFC REFLECTION LOW THAT WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO ONTARIO BY MONDAY MORNING. HAVE KEPT
LIKELY POPS GOING ACROSS IRON RAGE/ARROWHEAD REGION WHERE A HALF
TO ONE INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. DECREASING RAIN
CHANCES ARE FOUND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. ALTHOUGH
SOUNDINGS SHOW INSTABILITY AND CAPE VALUES REMAIN HIGH IN THE
KBRD/KDLH/KHYR AREAS...THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR SOUTH
ALONG THE SFC TROUGH INTO THE DRY AIR STORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT.

KEPT 20 POPS FOR A FEW ADDITIONAL STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES...ELEVATED SBCAPE AND
LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY WILL
KEEP MUCH OF THE REGION DRY AND WARM EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE NEXT UPPER WAVE AND SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NRN MN ON
WEDNESDAY AND SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2.
THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE
LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US SUBSIDES AND QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. A SERIES OF FAST MOVING
SHRT WVS WILL TRANSITION THROUGH THE AREA AND BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WILL LIKELY SEE A BREAK IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH AND
ALLOWS DAYTIME HIGHS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S...WITH NIGHT
TIME LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  67  83  62  83 /  50  40  10  10
INL  63  83  58  84 /  70  40  10  10
BRD  67  83  61  85 /  30  20   0   0
HYR  67  84  63  85 /  30  30  10  10
ASX  66  83  63  83 /  40  40  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

AVIATION...GSF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
310 PM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-301100-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
310 PM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 2 FROM BEMIDJI TO
DULUTH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS OVER THE EASTERN AREAS MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

LSZ121-140>148-301100-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
310 PM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG TO SEVERE...WILL BE FOUND OVER
NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR...MAINLY IN THE AREAS OF SILVER BAY TO
GRAND MARAIS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

GRANING

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
343 PM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012

MNZ021-292100-
SOUTHERN COOK/NORTH SHORE-
343 PM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012

...STRONG STORMS ALONG NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR...

AT 341 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM LUTSEN TO GRAND
PORTAGE...MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR AT 30
MPH.

THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WIND
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...

SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

LAT...LON 4795 8959 4798 8962 4794 8964 4794 8967
      4788 8977 4785 8991 4781 8998 4770 9052
      4758 9079 4771 9094 4804 8974 4802 8961
      4795 8957

GRANING

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
542 PM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012

MNZ011-292300-
NORTH ST. LOUIS-
542 PM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ENTERING NORTHERN SECTIONS OF BOUNDARY WATER
   CANOE AREA WILDERNESS...

AT 535 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES EAST OF CRANE LAKE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
20 MPH.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO
40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
   SNOW BAY IN EXTREME NORTHERN ST. LOUIS COUNTY AT 545 PM OTHER
   AREA AFFECTED INCLUDE NORWAY LAKE...GUN LAKE AND BEAR TRACK LAKE.

STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN
A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 4842 9245 4835 9246 4824 9237 4825 9229
      4832 9232 4835 9229 4837 9215 4835 9213
      4836 9205 4832 9199 4827 9199 4821 9180
      4809 9196 4808 9240 4844 9270 4845 9249

GOHDE

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
722 PM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012

WIZ003-004-300045-
ASHLAND-IRON-
722 PM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH SAXON HARBOR...

AT 715 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTH OF CEDAR...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10
MPH.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO
30 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF MODERATE
DOWNPOURS...

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CEDAR AND SAXON BY 730 PM...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK
SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 4636 9060 4661 9086 4666 9066 4660 9057
      4660 9049 4658 9043 4655 9039 4656 9033
      4653 9030 4651 9022 4649 9020

GOHDE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
740 PM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     HAIL             6 S ELY                 47.82N 91.85W
07/29/2012  M1.00 INCH       ST. LOUIS          MN   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

SGOHDE