Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
200 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1010 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012

00Z SATURDAY THE 13TH 250 HPA MAP SHOWED A 95 KT SOUTHWEST JET STREAK
LOCATED ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST DOWNSTREAM AHEAD OF UL CYCLONE.
ANOTHER 120 KT JET STREAK WAS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. AT 500
HPA, THE CENTER OF THE LOW THAT HAS BEEN MENTIONED FOR SEVERAL DAYS
NOW WAS LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE 4 CORNERS. A COLD POOL OF AROUND -19
DEG C WAS OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. OTHERWISE, A LONGWAVE TROF
WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES. VERY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -39 DEG C WERE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE. AT 700 HPA, TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY AROUND 8
OR 9 DEG C ACROSS THE PLAINS. AT 850 HPA, TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 13
TO 17 DEG C RANGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ALTHOUGH THIS
PRESSURE LEVEL WAS SATURATED ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION. AT
THE SFC, AN OCCLUDED FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS WY/CO. A WARM FRONT WAS
LOCATED ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. DEWPOINTS WERE RUNNING IN THE MID 60S
DEG F ACROSS OKLAHOMA SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

A QUASI LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING. SO FAR, OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS HAVE BEEN SUB
SEVERE. THE 500 HPA LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS KANSAS TODAY. AT THE SURFACE
A PACIFIC FRONT THAT MERGED WITH A DRYLINE WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION
WITH MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN THE WAKE OF THE SYNOPTIC WAVE.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR REDEVELOPMENT AS INDICATED BY THE 00Z NAM ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WILL KEEP SLIGHT POPS IN THIS
AREA. SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA. TODAY WE WILL
SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S DEG F. LOWS IN THE 40S DEG F ARE EXPECTED FOR
TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012

A DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED IN THE MEDIUM RANGE, BEGINNING
SUNDAY NIGHT THOUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SUNDAY NIGHT, WESTERN
KANSAS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LIGHT NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
DUE TO A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE
COLORADO PLATEAU TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. ECMWF AND GFS 1000-500
MB LAYERS SHOW VERY DRY THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. WE'VE OPTED TO USE
THE COOLER BIAS CORRECTED MOS TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD FAVOR LOWS
IN THE MID 40S BY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST WITH SOME POTENTIAL TO BECOME AT LEAST MARGINALLY BREEZY
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A NORTHWEST PACIFIC REGION SYSTEM LIFTS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND DEVELOPS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE
NORTHERN  PLAINS INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY MONDAY EVENING. THAT
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
SOMETIME TUESDAY.

MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY, WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE
MID 80S IN THE RED HILLS REGION OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. DEPENDING
ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT, TUESDAY ALSO HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE WARM WITH AT LEAST UPPER 70S OR LOWER 80S. THE
AIRMASS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL NOT BE VERY COOL.
HOWEVER, THE SURFACE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

IFR CIGS LIKELY THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THUNDERSTORMS AND
FOG. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER THIS MORNING. A SOUTHERLY 10-15
KT WIND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND THEN BECOME W-NW 15-20 KT
LATER TODAY AS A COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  78  46  75  46 /  20  10   0   0
GCK  74  45  75  45 /  10  10   0   0
EHA  73  47  74  47 /  10  10   0   0
LBL  76  46  76  45 /  10  10   0   0
HYS  77  48  76  44 /  30  20   0   0
P28  81  50  79  48 /  50  20   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...SUGDEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
200 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-140700-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
200 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012 /100 AM MDT SAT OCT 13 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
LIGHTNING IS THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
EAST OF LINE FROM HAYS TO COLDWATER. SMALL HAIL...LIGHTNING...AND
GUSTY WINDS IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

SUGDEN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
216 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

KSZ064-078-130800-
FORD-HODGEMAN-
216 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FORD AND SOUTHEASTERN HODGEMAN
COUNTIES...

AT 210 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR FT. DODGE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

AT 2:14 AM CDT...NICKEL SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED 3 MILES SOUTH OF
DODGE CITY BY AN OFF DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE.

LAT...LON 3816 9959 3750 9959 3751 10009 3814 9996
TIME...MOT...LOC 0714Z 231DEG 51KT 3775 9992

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