Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
601 PM CDT THU SEP 6 2012

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW) ISSUED AT 349 PM
CDT THU SEP 6 2012

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS APPROACHING THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS OF 20Z. THE SURFACE
CYCLONE WAS NOTED OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND A DRYLINE EXTENDED
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVANCED NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS TODAY AS LEE TROUGHING
DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS ALSO ALLOWED
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES RANGED FROM 1500 TO 2000 K/JG EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROFILE WAS FAVORABLE FOR MID-LEVEL
ROTATION WITH THE STORMS WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR RANGING FROM 30 TO 40
KTS. UPPER-LEVEL WIND SHEAR (6-11 KM) WAS ALSO RESPECTABLE AT
AROUND 30 KTS. GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS, HAIL AS LARGE AS GOLFBALLS
OR EVEN TENNIS BALLS IS POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE HIGH CLOUD BASES,
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 70
MPH. GIVEN THE MODEST MID-LEVEL FORCING, THE STORMS MAY STAY
SCATTERED, BUT ANY COLD POOL GENERATION COULD ALLOW THE INDIVIDUAL
STORMS TO GROW UPSCALE INTO LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS.

LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY, THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL APPROACH KANSAS. SO AFTER A LULL OVERNIGHT, MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT THESE WILL PROBABLY NOT BE
SEVERE AND SHOULD BE ELEVATED IN NATURE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY
LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MUCH COOLER FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. HIGH WINDS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY GIVEN THE EXPECTED
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT. THEREFORE, A WIND ADVISORY
WAS ISSUED FOR ALL OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT THU SEP 6 2012

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY
NIGHT AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BEGINS TO BUILD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY 12Z SATURDAY THE CENTER OF THIS SURFACE
HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED IN NORTHWEST KANSAS. THIS HIGH THEN
MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS FORECAST TO
BE LOCATED NEAR SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY 12Z SUNDAY. GIVEN CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH WILL UNDERCUT THE
COOLEST GUIDANCE IN THESE TWO AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
AT THIS TIME WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW AREAS FALLING BACK
INTO THE MID 40S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OR WEST CENTRAL KANSAS FRIDAY
NIGHT. SATURDAY NIGHT THE COOLER TEMPERATURES MAY BE LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT NEAR 50. AS FOR HIGHS
ON SATURDAY WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST GIVEN THAT THE
GFS, ECMWF AND NAM 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z SUNDAY VARIED FROM
AROUND 15 IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE LOWER 20S NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER.

ON SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AS
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DEVELOPS ALONG THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES. ENHANCED WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE IS EXPECTED AND 850-700MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM. THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BASED ON THE FORECAST 850MB TEMPERATURES
AT 00Z TUESDAY IT STILL APPEARS THAT HIGHS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE
90S EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. IN ADDITION TO THESE
WARMER TEMPERATURES DRIER AIR WILL ALSO BE RETURNING TO WESTERN
KANSAS WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN FIRE DANGER LEVEL BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

ON TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH TOWARDS WESTERN KANSAS AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS THE ROCKIES AND MOVES OUT INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY
WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 90S. IN
ADDITION GIVEN THE INSTABILITY THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL TUESDAY NIGHT AS THIS COLD FRONT CROSSES
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BY EARLY WEDNESDAY THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
BE LOCATED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. TEMPERATURES
MID WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S GIVEN
THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND 925-850MB TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT THU SEP 6 2012

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM AROUND HAYS SOUTHWEST TO
NEAR DODGE CITY AND MEADE...WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KHYS AND KDDC THROUGH MID EVENING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH ANY STORMS. AS FOR WINDS, A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20KT PREVAILING ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS THEN PROJECTED TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST INTO EXTREME NORTHWEST KANSAS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS BY MID MORNING. STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS OF 30
TO 40KT EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  66  79  49  77 /  50  40  10   0
GCK  63  77  47  77 /  40  20  10   0
EHA  63  77  53  77 /  20  10  10  10
LBL  64  79  51  77 /  40  20  10   0
HYS  63  77  47  78 /  60  30  10   0
P28  69  80  53  79 /  40  60  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM CDT /4 AM MDT/ TO NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/
FRIDAY FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>064-074>077-084-085.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ065-066-
078>081-086>090.

&&

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...JJOHNSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1045 AM CDT THU SEP 6 2012

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-071130-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
1045 AM CDT THU SEP 6 2012 /945 AM MDT THU SEP 6 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS AND BECOME SEVERE, WITH HAIL AS LARGE AS 2 INCHES IN
DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 70 MPH. THE BEST
CHANCE OF STORMS INITIALLY WILL BE ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM ELKHART
TO ULYSSES TO NESS CITY TO WAKEENEY. IF THE STORMS HOLD TOGETHER
AND MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS, THEN LOCATIONS
FURTHER SOUTHEAST SUCH AS LARNED, PRATT, DODGE CITY ENGLEWOOD AND
COLDWATER COULD BE AFFECTED. KEEP IN MIND THAT A SOLID LINE OF
STORMS MAY NOT OCCUR, BUT RATHER A FEW INDIVIDUAL STORM CELLS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL
BE LIGHTNING.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. LIGHTNING IS THE MAIN THREAT
WITH THE STORMS.

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 90S AND AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
DROPS TO BELOW 15 PERCENT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS WILL BE NEEDED AFTER 3 PM.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

FINCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
551 PM CDT THU SEP 06 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     HAIL             4 SE PENDENNIS          38.61N 100.27W
09/06/2012  M1.00 INCH       LANE               KS   PUBLIC

&&

06

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
559 PM CDT THU SEP 06 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     HAIL             6 ESE PENDENNIS         38.61N 100.24W
09/06/2012  E1.50 INCH       NESS               KS   PUBLIC

&&

RBURG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
601 PM CDT THU SEP 06 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0551 PM     HAIL             6 SSW UTICA             38.57N 100.22W
09/06/2012  M0.88 INCH       NESS               KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

06

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
604 PM CDT THU SEP 6 2012

KSZ087-062345-
MEADE-
604 PM CDT THU SEP 6 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MEADE COUNTY...

AT 601 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PLAINS CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3747 10022 3747 10011 3717 10009 3710 10063
      3738 10062
TIME...MOT...LOC 2305Z 242DEG 30KT 3725 10051

RUSSELL

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