Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
605 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2012

...UPDATED FOR THE AVIATION DISCUSSION AND THE 00Z TAFS...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2012

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT WILL ALSO
MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT FROM FAR WESTERN KANSAS WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
THE NORTH. INITIALLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING
MAINLY EAST OF A HAYS TO ASHLAND LINE WITH A VORTICITY MAX, HIGHER
INSTABILITY, AND CAPES RUNNING AROUND 1500 J/KG. SOME STORMS COULD
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 OR 60 MPH. ANOTHER AREA
OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATER
TONIGHT TILL AROUND MIDNIGHT TO 3 AM THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE IN
COVERAGE. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH, HOWEVER WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT,
LESS INSTABILITY, AND WEAKER SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AFTER
DARK, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. WILL CONTINUE WITH
INCREASING POPS TO AROUND 50 PERCENT AT HAYS TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT
ELSEWHERE FOR TONIGHT. SHORT TERM OPERATIONAL MODELS QPF AND POP
FIELDS COMING INTO MORE AGREEMENT OVERNIGHT. THAT SAID THE HRRR
MESOSCALE MODEL NOW SHOWING LESSER CHANCES ESPECIALLY IN A
CORRIDOR FROM DIGHTON TO DODGE CITY WITH MUCH OF THE STORMS
STAYING EAST AND WEST OF DODGE CITY.

ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT
MOVE EAST LOOK FOR CLEARING SKIES AND NORTH WINDS BECOMING
NORTHEASTERLY AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RUN FROM THE MID AND UPPER 60S IN THE WEST FROM
HAYS TO LIBERAL AND WEST AND FROM 70 TO 75 EAST OF THAT LINE. FOR
THURSDAY LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 90S WEST TO THE MID AND UPPER 90S
EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2012

THE ECMWF, GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE LARGE SCALE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL EDGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FROM THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES WILL BE LACKING SO THAT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN RATHER
HOT AROUND 100F. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS OKLAHOMA
FROM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. VERY HOT AIR WILL BE SITUATED ALONG AND
JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, WITH HIGHS FROM 100 TO
110F. THE ECMWF SHOWS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE, WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
THE NORTH AND BLAZING HOT TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH. IT CURRENTLY
APPEARS THAT THE VERY HOT TEMPERATURES MAY BE CONFINED TO SOUTH
CENTRAL AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS, WITH THE COOLER READINGS TO
THE NORTH. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CANNOT BE RULED OUT ANY
DAY IN THIS PERIOD GIVEN THAT WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE SITUATED
ALONG THE EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES WHERE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES
OFTEN RESIDE IN SUMMER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 559 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2012

AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS, WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AND THEN COLLAPSE OVER SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. DOWNBURSTS TO 45 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE COLLAPSING STORMS. THE MOST LIKELY
TAF SITE TO SEE ANY CONVECTION ACTIVITY IS KHYS, WITH KGCK AND
KDDC MAY SEE THE VCTS. THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE OVER BY 05Z, AND
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS AFTER FROPA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  97  67 101 /  40  10  10  10
GCK  68  96  66 100 /  20  10  10  10
EHA  67  95  67  98 /  20  10  10  10
LBL  69  96  67 100 /  30  10  10  10
HYS  68  97  67 101 /  30  10  10  10
P28  75  98  71 103 /  40  20  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...BURKE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
335 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2012

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-262045-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
335 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2012 /235 PM MDT WED JUL 25 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM HAYS
TO DODGE CITY AND MEADE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY HAVE WIND GUSTS FROM 50 TO
60 MPH ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL TO DIME SIZE. LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH A COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS MAY HAVE
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND WINDS TO 40 OR 50 MPH. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

06

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
649 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 W HARDTNER            37.02N 98.76W
07/25/2012  E50 MPH          BARBER             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PODREBARAC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
704 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2012

KSZ030-260045-
TREGO-
704 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TREGO COUNTY...

AT 701 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF VODA...
MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LAT...LON 3879 9962 3880 10011 3912 10011 3912 9974
TIME...MOT...LOC 0004Z 338DEG 17KT 3909 9996

12

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