Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
358 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2012

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2012

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT WILL ALSO
MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT FROM FAR WESTERN KANSAS WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
THE NORTH. INITIALLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING
MAINLY EAST OF A HAYS TO ASHLAND LINE WITH A VORTICITY MAX, HIGHER
INSTABILITY, AND CAPES RUNNING AROUND 1500 J/KG. SOME STORMS COULD
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 OR 60 MPH. ANOTHER AREA
OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATER
TONIGHT TILL AROUND MIDNIGHT TO 3 AM THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE IN
COVERAGE. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH, HOWEVER WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT,
LESS INSTABILITY, AND WEAKER SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AFTER
DARK, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. WILL CONTINUE WITH
INCREASING POPS TO AROUND 50 PERCENT AT HAYS TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT
ELSEWHERE FOR TONIGHT. SHORT TERM OPERATIONAL MODELS QPF AND POP
FIELDS COMING INTO MORE AGREEMENT OVERNIGHT. THAT SAID THE HRRR
MESOSCALE MODEL NOW SHOWING LESSER CHANCES ESPECIALLY IN A
CORRIDOR FROM DIGHTON TO DODGE CITY WITH MUCH OF THE STORMS
STAYING EAST AND WEST OF DODGE CITY.

ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT
MOVE EAST LOOK FOR CLEARING SKIES AND NORTH WINDS BECOMING
NORTHEASTERLY AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RUN FROM THE MID AND UPPER 60S IN THE WEST FROM
HAYS TO LIBERAL AND WEST AND FROM 70 TO 75 EAST OF THAT LINE. FOR
THURSDAY LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 90S WEST TO THE MID AND UPPER 90S
EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2012

THE ECMWF, GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE LARGE SCALE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL EDGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FROM THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES WILL BE LACKING SO THAT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN RATHER
HOT AROUND 100F. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS OKLAHOMA
FROM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. VERY HOT AIR WILL BE SITUATED ALONG AND
JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, WITH HIGHS FROM 100 TO
110F. THE ECMWF SHOWS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE, WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
THE NORTH AND BLAZING HOT TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH. IT CURRENTLY
APPEARS THAT THE VERY HOT TEMPERATURES MAY BE CONFINED TO SOUTH
CENTRAL AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS, WITH THE COOLER READINGS TO
THE NORTH. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CANNOT BE RULED OUT ANY
DAY IN THIS PERIOD GIVEN THAT WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE SITUATED
ALONG THE EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES WHERE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES
OFTEN RESIDE IN SUMMER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT WED JUL 25 2012

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 01-03Z THIS
EVENING WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
DIMINISH AFTER 06-08Z TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES
SOUTHEASTWARD. SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 40-50 KT AND
SMALL HAIL TO DIME SIZE. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15-22 KT WILL SHIFT TO
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY 10-22 KT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  97  67 101 /  40  10  10  10
GCK  68  96  66 100 /  20  10  10  10
EHA  67  95  67  98 /  20  10  10  10
LBL  69  96  67 100 /  30  10  10  10
HYS  68  97  67 101 /  30  10  10  10
P28  75  98  71 103 /  40  20  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...KRUSE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
335 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2012

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-262045-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
335 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2012 /235 PM MDT WED JUL 25 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM HAYS
TO DODGE CITY AND MEADE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY HAVE WIND GUSTS FROM 50 TO
60 MPH ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL TO DIME SIZE. LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH A COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS MAY HAVE
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND WINDS TO 40 OR 50 MPH. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

06

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
408 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2012

KSZ079-080-252215-
EDWARDS-KIOWA-
408 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN KIOWA AND
SOUTHEASTERN EDWARDS COUNTIES...

AT 406 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING 6 MILES SOUTH OF CENTERVIEW...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

RESIDENTS IN NORTHEASTERN KIOWA AND SOUTHEASTERN EDWARDS COUNTIES...
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF FELLSBURG AND TROUSDALE...SHOULD MONITOR THE
WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE
PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 3783 9929 3797 9905 3762 9903 3764 9928
      3774 9930
TIME...MOT...LOC 2108Z 235DEG 12KT 3772 9924

SUGDEN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
421 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2012

KSZ046-252215-
RUSH-
421 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN RUSH COUNTY...

AT 415 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING NEAR BISON...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 10 MPH.

WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

RESIDENTS IN EASTERN RUSH COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF TIMKEN...
BISON AND OTIS...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN
FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION
SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 3846 9903 3838 9923 3861 9934 3870 9903
      3869 9902
TIME...MOT...LOC 2121Z 242DEG 10KT 3852 9922

SUGDEN