Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
237 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012

...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, AND LONG TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012

WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA. A +100KT
UPPER LEVEL JET IS EXITING THE TROUGH AXIS AND CLIMBING NORTHEAST
ACROSS UTAH INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OF MONTANA AND WYOMING. NEAR
THE SURFACE, AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH H85 DEWPOINTS JUST ABOVE 15C EXTENDING FROM NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN KANSAS THEN EXPANDING INTO
ALL OF SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI. DEWPOINTS AT H85
WERE STILL IN EXCESS OF 10C ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. A
SURFACE LOW IS SITUATED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO WITH AN
ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD NEAR AND ALONG THE
COLORADO BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION TONIGHT AND INTO EASTERN MONTANA
SUNDAY BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES, THE FAIRLY MODEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AS THE STRONG JET AXIS MENTIONED ABOVE BEGINS
TO EDGE EASTWARD INTO THE COLORADO ROCKIES. MEANWHILE, THE NAM, GFS,
AND UKMET SHOW AN H5 VORT MAX EJECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS AND THE PANHANDLES OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. ADDITIONALLY, THE SURFACE LOW IN NORTHEASTERN COLORADO
WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT, AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT, BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. FURTHER SOUTH, THE TROUGH
AXIS ATTENDANT TO THE SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO EDGE EASTWARD TOWARD
THE KANSAS BORDER WHILE AMPLE AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOL
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS. AS A RESULT, A FEW
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO
THIS EVENING AS THE H5 VORT MAX EJECTS OUT ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS WHICH WILL GENERALLY BE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ERODING OF
WHAT LITTLE CAPPING REMAINS.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES THE KANSAS BORDER, GENERALLY
FROM THE BORDER ITSELF EASTWARD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. STORMS COULD LINGER INTO THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHILE
DRIFTING EASTWARD AS A +50KT LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN ACROSS EASTERN
SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER DOES EXIST. HOWEVER, IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED
WITH ONLY A MODESTLY INCREASING FLOW ALOFT AS MENTIONED BEFORE. ON
TOP OF THAT, NAM AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW FAIRLY LOW CAPE VALUES
NEAR THE SURFACE WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL CAPE VALUES NEARING 1000
J/KG AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE. SECONDLY,
MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO POINT TO HIGHER LCL'S ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS WITH LEVELS ABOVE 10,000 FT. WIND SHEAR VALUES COULD BE
BETTER AS WELL WITH LESS FAVORABLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PRESENT. THIS
WILL LESSEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF TORNADO DEVELOPMENT, ALTHOUGH IT
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT LATER IN THE EVENING AS LCL'S DROP
SOMEWHAT. PRECIP CHANCES LOOK RELATIVELY DECENT BUT THE COVERAGE FOR
ANY DEVELOPING STORMS COULD BE LIMITED. WILL RETAIN THE 40 POPS FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS EVENING AS A RESULT.

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY BUT
SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS INTO
EASTERN MONTANA WHILE BECOMING MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED. FURTHER
SOUTH, THE UPPER LEVEL JET CORE WILL EDGE EASTWARD OUT OF THE
ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. AS IT DOES SO, A DRYLINE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER WILL
BEGIN TO SHARPEN AS IT PUSHES EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH MUCH BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC SUPPORT
PRESENT ALONG WITH INCREASED FORCING NEAR THE SURFACE, THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE, PARTICULARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS.  AS MENTIONED BEFORE, THE FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL SHIFT
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH BETTER CHANCES GENERALLY EAST OF A SCOTT CITY
TO HUGOTON LINE WHERE CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB EASTWARD
REACHING ABOVE 2000 J/KG IN CENTRAL KANSAS. TORNADOES COULD BE MORE
OF A POSSIBILITY AS WELL WITH LOWER LCL'S AND MORE FAVORABLE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR PROFILES. LIKELY POPS LOOKS REASONABLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL KANSAS WITH FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE
COLORADO BORDER.

SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. LOOK FOR LOWS
DOWN INTO THE 60S(F) ACROSS EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS WITH LOWER 70S(F)
LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. FOR SUNDAY, THE SURFACE
TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL EDGE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
TURNING WINDS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE NAM,
GFS, AND ECMWF SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM JUST ABOVE 20C
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 25C IN EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS.
LOOK FOR HIGHS UP INTO THE UPPER 80S(F) TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S(F)
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012

THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL SEE A CLOSED UPPER LOW
MOVING FROM EASTERN MONTANA AND ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. A STRONG
SHORTWAVE WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, A DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS. A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT INTO WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY
EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING SUNDAY EVENING ALONG THE
DRYLINE AND THE COLD FRONT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE IN THE WAKEENEY, HAYS AND LACROSSE AREAS, CLOSER TO THE UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS. SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOK LIKE A GOOD
BET GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG 0-6KM SHEAR. A FEW
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT GIVEN THE HIGH BASED NATURE OF THE
STORMS PER THE NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THINK THE
TORNADO THREAT WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH AND MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER WAVE CONTINUES EAST. THIS WILL PUSH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETTING
PUSHED SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA.

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PART OF THE WEEK. WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FORECAST TO BE SOUTH OF THE REGION, WE SHOULD SEE EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL ALSO BE ADVECTING BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE STATE. WITH WEAK
DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER FLOW AND INCREASING INSTABILITY, WILL KEEP
THE CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE WEEK.

LATE IN THE WEEK, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY AND MOVING OUT INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD DIMINISH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SOMEWHAT SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
SURFACE TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO BEGINS TO PUSH TOWARD THE
KANSAS BORDER. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
VICINITY AND WEST OF A KHYS TO KDDC LINE THROUGH LATE EVENING.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AS FOR WINDS, THE STRENGTHENING
SURFACE TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35KT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE A LITTLE AFTER SUNSET BUT CONTINUE TO BE IN
EXCESS OF 15 TO 25KT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  95  58  84 /  40  50  50   0
GCK  68  93  55  83 /  40  30  20   0
EHA  63  90  54  83 /  40  10  10   0
LBL  68  95  57  85 /  40  30  20   0
HYS  70  90  60  82 /  30  60  70  10
P28  72  92  66  87 /  20  40  40  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ030-
031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...JJOHNSON

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1153 AM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1147 PM     HAIL             4 N PFEIFER             38.76N 99.17W
05/25/2012  E1.00 INCH       ELLIS              KS   PUBLIC

&&

MSCOTT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1156 AM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1047 PM     HAIL             4 N PFEIFER             38.76N 99.17W
05/25/2012  E1.00 INCH       ELLIS              KS   PUBLIC

&&

MSCOTT

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