Fire Weather Watch 2, NWS Dodge City, KS

107 
WWUS83 KDDC 030810
RFWDDC

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
210 AM CST SAT MAR 3 2012

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY...

.STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL
COMBINE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS AROUND 15 PERCENT TO CREATE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH THIS AFTERNOON.

KSZ043>045-061>064-074>078-084>088-040000-
/O.UPG.KDDC.FW.A.0002.120303T1800Z-120304T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KDDC.FW.W.0008.120303T1800Z-120304T0000Z/
SCOTT-LANE-NESS-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-STANTON-GRANT-
HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-
210 AM CST SAT MAR 3 2012 /110 AM MST SAT MAR 3 2012/

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY TO
6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE 
HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY TO 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS
EVENING. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 043 SCOTT...FIRE WEATHER 
  ZONE 044 LANE...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 045 NESS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 
  061 HAMILTON...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 062 KEARNY...FIRE WEATHER 
  ZONE 063 FINNEY...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 064 HODGEMAN...FIRE 
  WEATHER ZONE 074 STANTON...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 075 GRANT...FIRE 
  WEATHER ZONE 076 HASKELL...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 077 GRAY...FIRE 
  WEATHER ZONE 078 FORD...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 084 MORTON...FIRE 
  WEATHER ZONE 085 STEVENS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 086 SEWARD...FIRE 
  WEATHER ZONE 087 MEADE AND FIRE WEATHER ZONE 088 CLARK.

* WINDS...WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
  TO 45 MPH.

* TIMING...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING
  THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AS WINDS INCREASE ABOVE 25 MPH AND
  RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS FALL RAPIDLY.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
  FALL AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT.

* TEMPERATURES...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 
  50S.

* IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND GUSTY 
  WINDS WILL CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH. 
  VEGETATION IS FULLY CURED AND WILL BURN EASILY. OUTDOOR 
  BURNING SHOULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

SUGDEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1142 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

...GENERAL UPDATE AND NEW AVIATION INCLUDED FOR 18Z TAFS...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

QUICK REVIEW OF REGIONAL SURFACE OBS CONTINUES TO SHOW A COLD
FRONT SURGING SOUTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARKS REGION WHILE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
STRONGEST 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES ARE NOW WELL EAST OF THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS ALTHOUGH A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS. WITH
DECENT THERMAL MIXING EXISTING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
ANTICIPATE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 MPH TO REMAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL SUNSET THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE,
SOME CIRRUS STREAMING INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE THE LIMIT OF
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE
RISING STEADILY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S EXPECTED UNDER THE
THICKER CLOUD COVER NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER WHILE MORE CLOUD FREE
AREAS SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

TODAY:

KDDC WSR-88D IS INDICATING RETURNED POWER FROM LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EARLY
THIS MORNING. THIS IS AN IMMEDIATE NEAR TERM CONCERN. ONCE THESE SHOWERS
DISSIPATE, A QUIET WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 400 HPA PV ANOMALY ROTATING ACROSS
THE STATE AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TWO AREAS OF ENHANCED PETERSON FRONTOGENESIS IN
THE 850-650 HPA LAYER WILL WEAKEN/MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY MID MORNING.
AS A RESULT, HAVE TAPER POPS TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS KANSAS. WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE NNW
WIND WITH MIXING UP TO 700 HPA. EXPECTING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 40S DEG F ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AND LOW 50S DEG F ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. IN ADDITION, THE MID LEVELS AT 500 HPA WILL COOL
AS A COLD POOL (~-33 DEG C MOVES OVERHEAD) SO WE COULD SEE SOME CUMULUS
BUILDUPS TODAY.

TONIGHT:

TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS
ACROSS THE PLAINS. SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH EVENING AND A LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY
WIND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION
THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
20S DEG F.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT:
ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES WERE REQUIRED TO THE GRIDS AS THIS WILL BE A RELATIVELY
QUIET SENSIBLE WEATHER PERIOD. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE DEWPOINT/RH
FORECAST SATURDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW THE
LOWER TROPOSPHERE TO BECOME VERY DRY (DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES LIKELY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS FAHRENHEIT). AS TEMPERATURES SATURDAY TOP OUT IN THE
48 TO 51 DEGREE RANGE IN THE WEST...AFTERNOON RH WILL FALL TO AT LEAST
THE UPPER TEENS IF NOT LOWER. WILL HAVE TO BE MINDFUL OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS AFTERNOON MIXING WILL ALLOW NORTHWEST
WINDS TO PROBABLY REACH THE WIND CRITERIA (SUSTAINED/FREQUENT GUSTS
25 MPH). ON SUNDAY...NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE...BUT
THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO WARM WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS OF THE DDC FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS
SHOW A MODEST IMPROVEMENT IN DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES, BUT THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL COUNTER THIS AND ANOTHER DAY OF N EAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
THE BIG FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE MID-WEEK AS THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST
AN ANTICYCLONIC WAVE-BREAKING LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY.
AHEAD OF THIS PATTERN CHANGE...VERY WARM AND QUIET SENSIBLE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A TROUGH WITHIN THE ACTIVE NORTHERN
STREAM JET IS EXPECTED TO TRAVEL EAST ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS
WHICH WILL BRING A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY
FORECAST IS VERY CHALLENGING ESPECIALLY REGARDING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS
DURING THE DAY RESULTING IN FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH.
MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY IS SHOWN IN THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS WITH THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION INCREASING BY LATE
IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY ALONG THIS FRONT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN INCREASE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW OVER ARIZONA BEGINS TO MOVE EAST INTO
NEW MEXICO. AT THIS TIME...THE WX GRIDS WILL REFLECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES WITH RAIN IN THE CENTRAL
KANSAS COUNTIES NORTH OF THE FRONT. THIS IS THINKING RIGHT NOW...HOWEVER
THIS FORECAST IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE (AND IT MOST LIKELY WILL) AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THIS POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION EVENT TOWARD MID-NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

RELATIVELY BENIGN AVIATION WEATHER SETUP FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL
KANSAS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON TO GRADUALLY EASE TO AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH BY
EARLY EVENING. FURTHER, OTHER THAN SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AT
OR ABOVE 20 KFT...VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  51  23  51  30 /  10   0  10   0
GCK  49  22  50  29 /   0   0  10   0
EHA  46  22  50  29 /   0   0  10   0
LBL  50  21  51  29 /   0   0  10   0
HYS  50  24  50  30 /   0   0  10   0
P28  54  28  53  32 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...AJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM....UMSCHEID
AVIATION...AJOHNSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
255 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-030900-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
255 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012 /155 AM MST FRI MAR 2 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
IN ASSOCIATION WITH BREEZY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. OUTDOOR
BURNING IS DISCOURAGED SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

SUGDEN