Special Weather Statement, NWS Cheyenne, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
544 PM MDT WED JUL 25 2012

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS. VFR PREVAILING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 03Z PRODUCING LOCALIZED MVFR...WIND GUSTS
TO 45 MPH AND TURBULENCE. AFTER 18Z...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE...OTHERWISE VFR.  RUBIN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM MDT WED JUL 25 2012/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
LATEST RADAR LOOP WAS SHOWING A BIG CLUSTER OF CONVECTION
CONTINUING TO PUSH EAST THROUGH AREAS FROM WHEATLAND TO
TORRINGTON AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH AREAS IN THE CENTRAL
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. BASED ON TRENDS...IT APPEARS LIKE
THE BACK EDGE OF THIS CLUSTER SHOULD EXIT THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
BETWEEN 02Z AND 03Z. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY TOWARDS
SUNSET.

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS SHOWING THE DRIER AIR
STARTING TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST SURFACE
ANALYSIS WAS SHOWING THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUING TO BUILD SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING TO TAKE PLACE TONIGHT.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT:
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TOMORROW AND
TOMORROW NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE WHICH MAY AID IN
DEVELOPING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LEE
SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RATHER
SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT:
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS SHOWING A PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTH JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE. THIS
GFS/ECMWF/NAM ARE SHOWING THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE LIFTING NORTHEAST
ALONG THE RIDGE AND POSSIBLE TOWARDS WYOMING ON FRIDAY. THIS
FEATURE MAY AID IN INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE ON FRIDAY AND BRING ANOTHER SHOT
OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TEND TO CLIMB A BIT FROM THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS JULY
CLOSES OUT BUT IT WILL SLIP A LITTLE WESTWARD BY THE MID PART OF
NEXT WEEK. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY PROVIDING WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE SHOULD
THEN BEGIN BEING SHUNTED MORE TO THE SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPPER HIGH MOVES WEST AND ALTERS THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE CWA TO
MORE WESTERLY AND TAPS SOME DRIER AIR FROM THE DESERT SW.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY
ABOVE AVERAGES THOUGH NOT QUITE AS HOT AS RECENT.

AVIATION...18Z TAFS...
VFR EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTRMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING
MAINLY OVER AND EAST OF THE MTNS WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR
VSBYS IN STRONGER STORMS.  SKIES CLEARING OVERNIGHT.  -RE-

FIRE WEATHER...
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS EVENING
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
ERRATIC OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AREAS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE
TROPICAL AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY AND PROVIDE FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE. THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED RETURN TO THE AREA FRIDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 PERCENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...REC
LONG TERM/AVIATION...RE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1026 AM MDT WED JUL 25 2012

WYZ101>119-261000-
CONVERSE COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS-NIOBRARA COUNTY-
NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-FERRIS/SEMINOE/SHIRLEY MOUNTAINS-
SHIRLEY BASIN-CENTRAL LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHWEST PLATTE COUNTY-
EAST PLATTE COUNTY-GOSHEN COUNTY-CENTRAL CARBON COUNTY-
NORTH SNOWY RANGE FOOTHILLS-SOUTHWEST CARBON COUNTY-
SIERRA MADRE RANGE-UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN-SNOWY RANGE-
LARAMIE VALLEY-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS-
CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY-EAST LARAMIE COUNTY-
1026 AM MDT WED JUL 25 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL WYOMING...
SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE TO POINTS EAST-SOUTHEAST
BETWEEN WHEATLAND AND TORRINGTON. THE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE...BUT FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY AID IN INITIATING FIRES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ISOLATED-TO-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-261000-
DAWES-BOX BUTTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-MORRILL-KIMBALL-CHEYENNE-
NORTH SIOUX-SOUTH SIOUX-
1026 AM MDT WED JUL 25 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
STRONG OR SEVERE...BUT FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY AID IN
INITIATING FIRES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ISOLATED-TO-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE

COX/FINCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
340 PM MDT WED JUL 25 2012

NEZ054-WYZ119-252245-
EAST LARAMIE COUNTY WY-KIMBALL NE-
340 PM MDT WED JUL 25 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EXTREME EASTERN LARAMIE AND
SOUTHERN KIMBALL COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM MDT...

AT 339 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES EAST OF PINE BLUFFS...OR 17 MILES WEST OF
KIMBALL...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  OLIVER CAMPGROUND...
  OLIVER RESERVOIR...
  KIMBALL AIRPORT...
  BUSHNELL...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4111 10411 4128 10405 4120 10342 4100 10350
      4099 10369
TIME...MOT...LOC 2140Z 285DEG 15KT 4117 10396

GRIFFITH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
649 PM MDT WED JUL 25 2012

WYZ101-102-260145-
CONVERSE COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS WY-NIOBRARA COUNTY WY-
649 PM MDT WED JUL 25 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CONVERSE AND WESTERN
NIOBRARA COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM MDT...

AT 645 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES NORTHWEST
OF DULL CENTER TO 10 MILES WEST OF BILL TO 9 MILES NORTH OF LAPRELE
RESERVOIR...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
DOUGLAS AND BILL AROUND 655 PM MDT.
DULL CENTER AROUND 705 PM MDT.
MANNING RANCH AROUND 725 PM MDT.
LOST SPRINGS AROUND 730 PM MDT.
KEELINE AROUND 740 PM MDT.
LANCE CREEK AROUND 745 PM MDT.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 25 IN WYOMING BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 135 AND
151.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4352 10427 4339 10430 4312 10454 4267 10469
      4276 10564 4318 10554 4351 10522 4351 10435
TIME...MOT...LOC 0049Z 275DEG 37KT 4349 10509 4317 10540
          4282 10549

RUBIN