Special Weather Statement, NWS Cheyenne, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
548 PM MDT WED JUL 11 2012

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD OVER EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING EARLY THIS EVENING.  MANY OF THE
STORMS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH...WITH KRWL REPORTING
A BRIEF GUST TO 50 MPH JUST BEFORE 23Z.  HAVE INCREASED POPS AND
INCLUDED THE MENTION OF STRONG WIND GUSTS IN A RECENT UPDATE.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 513 PM MDT WED JUL 11 2012/...

.AVIATION...00Z TAF ISSUANCE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUNSET...WITH GUSTY DOWNDRAFT WINDS EXPECTED OUT OF THESE STORMS. A
FEW WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 10 AND 18Z
TOMORROW...WITH SFC WINDS SWITCHING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT AND GUSTING TO 20KTS FOR A SHORT PERIOD AFTER FROPA. WINDS
WILL THEN BECOME NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.   RJM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM MDT WED JUL 11 2012/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

LATE THIS AFTERNOON-THIS EVENING:
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS SHOWING A FAIRLY DISTINCT UPPER LEVEL
POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY/FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH
NORTHWEST WYOMING WITH A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING THROUGH THAT REGION. WE ARE EXPECTING THIS CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY REACH CONVERSE COUNTY AROUND 00Z AND AREAS
EAST- SOUTHEAST AFTERWARDS. LAPS IS CURRENTLY IS SHOWING GOOD
INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD OF THIS CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH
DEWPOINTS NEAR 50 JUST WEST OF CASPER. DEWPOINTS DO DROP OFF QUITE
A BIT AS YOU HEAD EAST OF CASPER...BUT THESE STORMS COULD HANG ON
FOR A WHILE (THROUGH 04Z- 05Z) DUE TO 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND
25-30KTS. CANNOT RULE OUT A COUPLE OF THE STORMS BECOMING SEVERE
ACROSS THIS REGION AS WELL WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE
EAST...BUT THE INDIVIDUAL CELLS SHOULD TRACK SOUTHEAST. WE WENT
AHEAD AND BUMPED UP POPS ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. MEANWHILE...THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SHOULD DIE OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO HANG ON TO THE RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING FOR THE LOW PRECIPITATION THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER
CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COULD SEE
SOME CONVECTION LINGER IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE POTENTIAL VORTICITY
ANOMALY. OTHERWISE...A QUIET NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA AS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT:
THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUING TO DOMINATE THE AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS WILL BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT
FOR A COUPLE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WE DID
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PANHANDLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE PANHANDLE...DUE TO WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN PLACE
AND WEAK INSTABILITY...BUT I AM NOT REAL CONFIDENT SINCE THE FLOW
WILL BE TURNING NORTH BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL LIMIT
ANY UPSLOPE FLOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
WELL WITH 700MB STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES AROUND 1 TO 1.5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AS A RESULT...WE KEPT THE GOING TREND OF UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 FROM LARAMIE TO RAWLINS. EAST OF THAT REGION...HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM 85 TO 90 IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING TO THE MID 90S IN THE
PANHANDLE. THE MONSOON FLOW IS EXPECTED TO START CREEPING INTO
AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY BRING A
BETTER SHOT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO RESOLVE A
QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH. THE MONSOON PATTERN WILL RETURN
DURING THIS TIME AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ADVECT A GOOD FETCH
OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE ROCKIES THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS
WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD. TO BEGIN ON SATURDAY...A
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WYOMING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
STRENGTHEN SOUTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND ADVECT
HIGHER LLVL MOISTURE INTO THIS AREA. EXPECT A GOOD COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MARGINAL WINDS ALOFT WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR
SEVERE STORMS LOW...BUT WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR PRODUCING
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OUT OF THE STORMS WITH THE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE. LEESIDE PRESSURE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST
ON SUNDAY...TAKING SOME OF THE HIGHER DEW POINTS WITH IT. MAIN
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING...WITH A SECOND
PIECE DOWN SOUTH IN COLORADO. SO THE MOUNTAINS WILL MOST LIKELY
SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR DAYTIME STORMS...WITH LESS OF CHANCE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE EVENING. HIGHER LLVL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST FOR MONDAY BUT THE SHORTWAVE TRACK LOOKS
TO IMPACT SOUTHEAST WYOMING MORESO THAN SUNDAY SO SHOULD SEE
SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON EVENING TSTORMS FOR THE CWA.
A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF WEAKENS THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH
WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS A STRONGER BOUNDARY. THEREFORE WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOWER END CHANCE POPS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH
SURFACE FORCING. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE THROUGH THE
PERIOD UNTIL THE COLD FRONT CAN MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION ON
TUESDAY.

AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE... VFR OVER ALL TERMINALS TODAY AND
TONIGHT UNDER GENERALLY DRY AND WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT. SOUTHEAST
WINDS GUSTING 15 TO 25 KTS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY VCTY OF THE MTNS OF SE WYOMING
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AS WELL...WITH BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE IN VCTY OF ANY STORMS. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 10 AND 18Z
TOMORROW...AND WILL VEER SFC WINDS TO THE NW WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS TIME.

FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRECIPITATION THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE
RANGE THIS EVENING. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ALSO MOVING
INTO CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES THIS EVENING WHICH MAY BRING
MORE LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS TO DRY FUELS. THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WE MAY SEE A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WHICH MAY PRODUCE MORE LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY
WINDS...BUT WE SHOULD SEE A BIG INCREASE IN HUMIDITY VALUES AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES POSSIBLY
REACHING 150-175% OF NORMAL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING FOR WYZ101-WYZ102-
     WYZ103-WYZ104-WYZ105-WYZ109-WYZ110-WYZ111-WYZ112-WYZ113-WYZ114-
     WYZ115.
NE...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...REC
LONG TERM/AVIATION...RJM
UPDATE...WEILAND

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1116 AM MDT WED JUL 11 2012

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-121730-
DAWES-BOX BUTTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-MORRILL-KIMBALL-CHEYENNE-
NORTH SIOUX-SOUTH SIOUX-
1116 AM MDT WED JUL 11 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG
AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THIS WEEKEND BEGINNING
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE

WYZ101>119-121730-
CONVERSE COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS-NIOBRARA COUNTY-
NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-FERRIS/SEMINOE/SHIRLEY MOUNTAINS-
SHIRLEY BASIN-CENTRAL LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHWEST PLATTE COUNTY-
EAST PLATTE COUNTY-GOSHEN COUNTY-CENTRAL CARBON COUNTY-
NORTH SNOWY RANGE FOOTHILLS-SOUTHWEST CARBON COUNTY-
SIERRA MADRE RANGE-UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN-SNOWY RANGE-
LARAMIE VALLEY-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS-
CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY-EAST LARAMIE COUNTY-
1116 AM MDT WED JUL 11 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL WYOMING...
SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND POINTS EAST. THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THESE STORMS WILL BE DRY LIGHTNING WHICH MAY SPARK FIRES...PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL. THESE STORMS WILL
GENERALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA MAY SEE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
LARAMIE RANGE ON THURSDAY WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY. THE BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS
WEEKEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE STORMS
THIS WEEKEND WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.
&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE

COX

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