Special Weather Statement, NWS Cheyenne, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
535 PM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012

.AVIATION...00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE FAR EAST PART OF THE CWA
EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL LINGER
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WYOMING.  THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE CWA EACH DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK.  MANY
OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS.

GENERAL SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 35 KNOTS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE IN THE MID MORNING TO EARLY EVENING
HOURS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 421 PM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012/...

SHORT TERM...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. GENERALLY NOT EXPECTING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS BUT GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS. WHEATLAND AND BORDEAUX HAD GUSTS TO 50 MPH
WITH THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS. SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE TOO...MAINLY EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. HIGHER CAPE VALUES WILL EXIST NEAR THE
EASTERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA...SUCH AS NEAR ALLIANCE AND
CHADRON THIS EVENING. SHEAR IS LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE BUT THERE
IS ENOUGH CAPE TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

PLUME OF ELEVATED MOISTURE CURRENTLY MOVE NORTHWARD OUT OF UTAH
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE. THINKING THIS WAVE MAY KEEP SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM THREAT GOING INTO THE LATE EVENING AND POSSIBLE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. HAVE YET TO SEE ANY
OBSERVATIONS IN EASTERN UTAH REPORT PRECIPITATION AND WHERE
CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED...CEILINGS ARE AROUND 10 KFT.

BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES 2 TO 5
DEGREES COOLER OVER MOST OF THE AREA MONDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AGAIN NOT ANTICIPATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BUT GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
POSSIBLE GIVEN DRY LOW LEVELS. ALSO A FEW DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY FOR FIRE WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TUESDAY WITH NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 90S WITH 100 TO 105 ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF
NEBRASKA. BROKEN RECORD CONTINUES WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AGAIN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NOT
LIKELY BUT GUSTY WINDS.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE ONLY UNCERTAINTY WILL BE THE
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES ALOFT WHICH WILL LIKELY BE A MAJOR
TRIGGER OF CONVECTION LATE NEXT WEEK AND DURING THE WEEKEND. STRONG
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION
RESULTING IN HOT TEMPERATURES AND NEAR RECORD HIGHS DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO
UPPER 90S FROM RAWLINS TO CHEYENNE...WITH TEMPS BETWEEN 100 TO 105
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF EXTREME EASTERN WYOMING AND MOST OF
WESTERN NEBRASKA. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME RELIEVE IN SIGHT BY LATE
NEXT WEEK HOWEVER. MODELS SHOW THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD INTO KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA BY
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO PUSH
NORTHWARD OUT OF MEXICO AS PW/S INCREASE TO OVER 1 INCH ACROSS MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER 50 DEGREES AND POSSIBLY OVER 60
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO DEEP LOW TO
MIDLEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW. A GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SLOW STORM MOTION AND HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT MAY
RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS AS WELL INTO THE WEEKEND. MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL WITH
THIS WEATHER PATTERN. CONTINUED WITH HIGHER POP...STARTING THURSDAY
BETWEEN 20 TO 35 PERCENT...WITH POP BETWEEN 30 TO 60 PERCENT ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY FOR SHOWERS AND TSTORMS. IN
ADDITION...EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT.
SO KEPT A MENTION OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS AS WELL
WITH A BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE MORNING. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND
VALLEYS DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND LLVL MOISTURE CONTENT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BACK TO NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOW 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE. VFR EXPECTED OVER ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
TSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. LOCALLY BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE TSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING THEN DYING
OFF OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER UTAH MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS
AND COULD SEE A FEW DRY LIGHTING STRIKES.

COLD FRONT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO MOVE ACROSS AREAS
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TONIGHT. NOT SURE COOL AIR WILL BE DEEP
ENOUGH TO MAKE IT OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE. WIND DIRECTION NEAR THE
ARAPAHO FIRE MAY OR MAY NOT BE IMPACTED BY THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MONSOON MOISTURE AT THE UPPER
LEVELS STREAMS NORTHWARD. WILL HAVE TO AGAIN WATCH THE POTENTIAL
FOR DRY LIGHTNING. AS THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A FEW DRY
STRIKES BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH CONVECTION CLOSELY MONDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TUESDAY AND THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK. LOOKING AT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BETTER CHANCES
FOR WETTING RAINS THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM SUNDAY FOR WYZ101-WYZ102-WYZ103-
     WYZ104-WYZ105-WYZ106-WYZ109-WYZ110-WYZ111-WYZ112-WYZ113-
     WYZ114-WYZ115-WYZ116-WYZ117.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO 8 PM MONDAY FOR WYZ104-
     WYZ109-WYZ110-WYZ111.
NE...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...LIEBL
LONG TERM/AVIATION...TJT

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
433 PM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012

WYZ102-012300-
NIOBRARA COUNTY WY-
433 PM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN NIOBRARA COUNTY
UNTIL 500 PM MDT...

AT 429 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES WEST OF REDBIRD...OR 30 MILES WEST OF
EDGEMONT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  REDBIRD...
  MULE CREEK JUNCTION...

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 4350 10404 4321 10404 4303 10444 4325 10462
      4351 10422 4351 10406
TIME...MOT...LOC 2233Z 239DEG 18KT 4322 10438

FINCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
500 PM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012

WYZ102-012330-
NIOBRARA COUNTY WY-
500 PM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN NIOBRARA COUNTY UNTIL 530
PM MDT...

AT 459 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR REDBIRD...OR 24 MILES WEST OF EDGEMONT...
MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EASTERN NIOBRARA COUNTY.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 4328 10405 4327 10404 4303 10404 4304 10442
      4330 10448 4332 10405
TIME...MOT...LOC 2300Z 272DEG 14KT 4317 10426

FINCH

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
547 PM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012

NEZ054-055-020030-
CHEYENNE NE-KIMBALL NE-
547 PM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN KIMBALL AND
SOUTHWESTERN CHEYENNE COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM MDT...

AT 545 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KIMBALL AIRPORT...OR 12
MILES SOUTHEAST OF KIMBALL...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  DIX...
  POTTER...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 4127 10378 4125 10317 4100 10316 4099 10318
      4099 10380
TIME...MOT...LOC 2347Z 270DEG 10KT 4109 10353

FINCH