Special Weather Statement, NWS Cheyenne, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
301 PM MDT FRI JUN 15 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING SINCE THE LATE
MORNING OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.  ENVIRONMENT STILL LOOKS
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING OVER AND
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.  THE FOCUS FOR MOST OF THE SEVERE
STORMS CONTINUES TO BE THE NORTH OF A KEAN TO KSNY LINE.  THAT
AREA HAS THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LARGER INSTABILITY AND CAPE VALUES.
ALSO...BETTER 0-6KM SHEAR EXISTS OVER THAT PART OF THE CWA AS WELL
AS 300 MB DIFFLUENCE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  MOISTURE HAS
DIMINISHED SOME OVER THE SOUTH PART OF THE CWA THROUGH THE MORNING
AND EVEN AT KBFF THE SURFACE DEW POINT WENT FROM THE 50S TO 43 AT
19Z. THE ADVERTISED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD BE OVER THE CWA BY 00Z
AND THEN MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY 06Z. IN ADDITION...A SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA EARLY TONIGHT. AS OF 19Z THE
FRONT WAS FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING. WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THOSE FEATURES...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY
ANYTHING SEVERE...SHOULD DECREASE.

SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE EAST PART OF THE CWA THE REST OF
TONIGHT.  BOUNDARY LAYER UPSLOPE WIND FLOW AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE THE SHOWERS.  ALSO...AREAS OF FOG MAY
FORM LATER TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CWA AND LINGER INTO
MID MORNING SATURDAY.

HEIGHTS ALOFT SLOWLY RISE FOR SATURDAY OVER THE ROCKIES.  THE SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA WITH SURFACE UPSLOPE PERSISTING FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY.  THE LOW LEVEL THETA RIDGE AXIS AND MOISTURE CONVERGENT
AREA WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE OR LARAMIE VALLEY.
SURROUNDING THAT AREA...SOME THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.  MODEL TRENDS HAVE
BEEN FOR LESS QPF OVER THAT AREA.  THEN WARMER...DRY AND WINDY
WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE CWA SUNDAY AS STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE REGION.  A SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER
THE EASTERN WYOMING BORDER ON SUNDAY.  WIND GUSTS WILL BE AS HIGH AS
50 MPH IN AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE SUNDAY.  THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL INCREASE.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

STRONG WESTERLY LLVL/MIDLEVEL FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CWA THROUGH
MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF DOWNSLOPE AND 700MB TEMPS AROUND 14-17C
ON MON WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH WIDESPREAD READINGS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CONCERN DUE TO THE ABNORMALLY WARM...DRY...AND WINDY WEATHER.
MIDLEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON TUES IN RESPONSE TO
HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. 700MB
WINDSPEEDS DECREASE FROM 40 KTS ON MON TO 20 KTS ON TUES. ANOTHER
WARM DAY ON TUES WITH SOUTHWESTERLY LLVL FLOW AND 700MB TEMPS
AROUND 16C. A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN WY AND THE DAKOTAS
ON WED WILL FORCE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS ON WED.
LOOKS PRETTY DRY IN THE LOW AND MIDLEVELS BUT DID INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE WHERE DEWPOINTS
RISE INTO THE MID 40S. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER ON
WED AFTER THE FROPA. OTHERWISE...THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION BY THE
GFS AND ECMWF THAT HEIGHTS AND TEMPS RISE BY NEXT WEEKEND OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH A BUILDING RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER
THE LARAMIE RANGE AT THIS HOUR. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
TO THE EAST OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. INCLUDED TEMPO TSRA AT THE PANHANDLE SITES AS COVERAGE
SHOULD BE GREATER THERE WITH HIGHER INSTABILITY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND 06Z IN THE PANHANDLE WITH THE LOSS OF
INSTABILITY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT WITH BREEZY NORTH- TO-NORTHWEST WINDS. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS
COULD DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS EARLY SAT MORNING WITH AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS TODAY WILL BRING A
GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AT LEAST THE EAST PART
OF THE CWA THROUGH THIS EVENING.  A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA
THIS EVENING AS WELL.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL FOR SATURDAY
WITH SOME LATE DAY SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING.  THEN MUCH WARMER...DRY AND WINDY WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE
CWA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON
THOSE DAYS...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES 10 TO 15 PERCENT AND
WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 50 MPH DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
IN AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.  CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...WEILAND
LONG TERM/AVIATION...FINCH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
149 PM MDT FRI JUN 15 2012

WYZ101>119-161200-
CONVERSE COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS-NIOBRARA COUNTY-
NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-FERRIS/SEMINOE/SHIRLEY MOUNTAINS-
SHIRLEY BASIN-CENTRAL LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHWEST PLATTE COUNTY-
EAST PLATTE COUNTY-GOSHEN COUNTY-CENTRAL CARBON COUNTY-
NORTH SNOWY RANGE FOOTHILLS-SOUTHWEST CARBON COUNTY-
SIERRA MADRE RANGE-UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN-SNOWY RANGE-
LARAMIE VALLEY-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS-
CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY-EAST LARAMIE COUNTY-
149 PM MDT FRI JUN 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL WYOMING...
SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.  SOME OF THE
STORMS WILL PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAINLY TO THE
NORTH OF A WHEATLAND TO TORRINGTON LINE.  IN ADDITION...MANY OF THE
STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.  THE STORMS WILL BE SLOW
MOVING...TO THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 MPH...AND THE MOVEMENT WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.  MINOR FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING IN SOME AREAS OVER AND EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE.  A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
9 PM FOR AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND BE LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN COLORADO SATURDAY MORNING. A WEAK TROUGH COMBINED WITH
A MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL...HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

WESTERLY WINDS MAY GUST AS HIGH AS 50 MPH WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR EAST CENTRAL WYOMING
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-161200-
DAWES-BOX BUTTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-MORRILL-KIMBALL-CHEYENNE-
NORTH SIOUX-SOUTH SIOUX-
149 PM MDT FRI JUN 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING OVER THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF A
WHEATLAND TO TORRINGTON LINE.  IN ADDITION...MANY OF THE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.  THE STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING...TO THE
NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 MPH...AND THE MOVEMENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.  MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING IN SOME AREAS OVER THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.  A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE UNTIL 9 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND BE
LOCATED OVER NORTHERN COLORADO SATURDAY MORNING. WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN PANHANDLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WITH SMALL HAIL...HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE

WEILAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
144 PM MDT FRI JUN 15 2012

WYZ106-115-116-152030-
CENTRAL LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHWEST PLATTE COUNTY WY-LARAMIE VALLEY
WY-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE WY-
144 PM MDT FRI JUN 15 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL ALBANY COUNTY UNTIL 230
PM MDT...

AT 140 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES WEST OF LARAMIE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10
MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  LARAMIE...
  UNIVERSITY OF WYOMING WAR MEMORIAL STADIUM...
  BALDY PEAK...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 IN WYOMING BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 295 AND
316.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4166 10554 4139 10530 4119 10575 4139 10590
TIME...MOT...LOC 1944Z 243DEG 9KT 4134 10573

MSW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
203 PM MDT FRI JUN 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0159 PM     HAIL             1 SW LARAMIE            41.30N 105.60W
06/15/2012  E0.25 INCH       ALBANY             WY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MWEILAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
203 PM MDT FRI JUN 15 2012

WYZ106>108-117-118-152100-
CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY WY-CENTRAL LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHWEST PLATTE
COUNTY WY-EAST PLATTE COUNTY WY-GOSHEN COUNTY WY-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE
FOOTHILLS WY-
203 PM MDT FRI JUN 15 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN PLATTE...NORTHWESTERN
LARAMIE...EXTREME EASTERN ALBANY AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GOSHEN
COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM MDT...

AT 201 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES NORTH OF IRON MOUNTAIN...OR 27 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF WHEATLAND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  CHUGWATER...
  BORDEAUX...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 25 IN WYOMING BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 49 AND
77.

&&

LAT...LON 4204 10495 4172 10463 4158 10520 4173 10533
TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 235DEG 14KT 4170 10516

TJT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
219 PM MDT FRI JUN 15 2012

NEZ095-WYZ102-108-152100-
GOSHEN COUNTY WY-NIOBRARA COUNTY WY-NORTH SIOUX NE-
219 PM MDT FRI JUN 15 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN SIOUX...SOUTHEASTERN
NIOBRARA AND EXTREME NORTHEASTERN GOSHEN COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM MDT...

AT 214 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES NORTH OF PRAIRIE CENTER...OR 14 MILES
EAST OF LUSK...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  HARRISON...
  VAN TASSELL...

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 4287 10385 4261 10385 4258 10428 4276 10432
TIME...MOT...LOC 2019Z 260DEG 14KT 4269 10417

TJT

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
348 PM MDT FRI JUN 15 2012

NEZ019-095-096-WYZ108-152230-
GOSHEN COUNTY WY-NORTH SIOUX NE-SCOTTS BLUFF NE-SOUTH SIOUX NE-
348 PM MDT FRI JUN 15 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN SIOUX...EASTERN
GOSHEN AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN SCOTTS BLUFF COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM
MDT...

AT 345 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF YODER...OR 6 MILES SOUTH OF
TORRINGTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  TORRINGTON...
  HENRY...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4245 10407 4231 10375 4186 10417 4195 10438
TIME...MOT...LOC 2147Z 210DEG 19KT 4199 10422

TJT