Special Weather Statement, NWS Cheyenne, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
549 PM MDT SAT MAY 5 2012

.AVIATION...00Z TAF ISSUANCE...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER FAR EASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA INTO LATE THIS EVENING. MVFR AND NEAR IFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH 04Z ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AROUND MIDNIGHT. SOME TSTORMS MAY CONTAIN HAIL AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PANHANDLE ARE
EXPECTED TO GUST NEAR 35 KTS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING...WITH WINDS
AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. FURTHER WEST...WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT
OVERNIGHT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM MDT SAT MAY 5 2012/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
ONGOING CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHICH
WAS LOCATED OVR THE SE WY PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. EAST OF THIS
BOUNDARY 50F PLUS DEW POINTS WILL YIELD SBCAPES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
WHICH SUGGESTS CONVECTION WILL AT A MINIMUM BECOME STRONG WITH SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED FOR
SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO TEETER ON SEVERE THRESHOLDS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. A 100KT H3 JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
WILL FURTHER AID CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTH THIS EVENING BRINGING AN EVENTUAL END TO CONVECTION LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL SPLIT WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
CUT-OFF TRACKING ALONG THE U.S./CANADA BORDER AND THE SOUTHERN
ENERGY CLOSING OFF OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SFC HIGH WILL BUILD
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WHICH WILL SET-UP WEAK NORTHERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COOL AND MOSTLY
CLOUDY DAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS IN
AND AROUND EXTREME SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. H7 TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO AROUND 0 OR -2C ON
SUNDAY...WHICH WILL HOLDING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S.

THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BETWEEN THE SPLIT SYSTEMS ON
MONDAY. SO AGAIN EXPECT COOL NORTH FLOW TO PREVAIL IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...RESULTING IN CLOUDY AND SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. H7 TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
TO AROUND -4C BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN HIGHS THAT WILL
AGAIN ONLY REACH THE 50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND LOW 60S
ACROSS THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
PATCHY FROST POTENTIAL AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS WILL
BE SITUATED NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
A WEAK BLOCKING PATTERN SETTING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL US TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WILL BE MILD AND DRY WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS THRU THIS TIMEFRAME AS A RESULT. A SHORTWAVE SKIRTING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
WILL SEE INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONT ALTHOUGH COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
LINGER SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF
THE SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE LARAMIE RANGE.
THUS WILL SEE SHOWERS AND WEAK TSTORMS OCCUR IN THE UPSLOPE
FAVORED LOCATIONS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE KEPT TO A MINIMUM AS COOL AND
INCREASINGLY CLOUDY AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
DISTRICT FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NOT ANTICIPATING ALL THAT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF WETTING RAINS...BUT LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE NONETHELESS ESPECIALLY ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL BE
HIGHER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A RESULT...GENERALLY HOLDING IN THE
20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO
THE DISTRICT FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1058 AM MDT SAT MAY 5 2012

WYZ103>106-109>118-061700-
NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-FERRIS/SEMINOE/SHIRLEY MOUNTAINS-
SHIRLEY BASIN-CENTRAL LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHWEST PLATTE COUNTY-
CENTRAL CARBON COUNTY-NORTH SNOWY RANGE FOOTHILLS-
SOUTHWEST CARBON COUNTY-SIERRA MADRE RANGE-
UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN-SNOWY RANGE-LARAMIE VALLEY-
SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS-
CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY-
1058 AM MDT SAT MAY 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL WYOMING...
SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LARAMIE
RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
WINDS MAY GUST TO 50 MPH IN AND AROUND THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-WYZ101-102-107-108-119-061700-
DAWES-BOX BUTTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-MORRILL-KIMBALL-CHEYENNE-
NORTH SIOUX-SOUTH SIOUX-CONVERSE COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS-
NIOBRARA COUNTY-EAST PLATTE COUNTY-GOSHEN COUNTY-
EAST LARAMIE COUNTY-
1058 AM MDT SAT MAY 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY
BECOME STRONG PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
620 PM MDT SAT MAY 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     HAIL             2 E KIMBALL             41.23N 103.62W
05/05/2012  M1.75 INCH       KIMBALL            NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER TO GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL

&&

MAZUR

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