Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
354 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW OVER VIRGINIA WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
DELMARVA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND DRIVE AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO PENNSYLVANIA FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
1730 UTC REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS NMRS BANDS/CLUSTERS OF TSTMS OVR
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY/DELMARVA REGIONS MOVG N-NWWD ACRS NRN MD INTO THE
SRN TIER OF S-CENTRAL PA...SOUTH OF THE PA TURNPIKE. THE CONVECTION
IS ASSOC WITH COMPACT UPPER VORT MAX DRIFTING NEWD OVR NRN VA.
CLOUDS BREAKS EVIDENT VIA VIS SATL COMBINED WITH LG SCALE FORCING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL CYC CIRC HAS ALLOWED FOR RAPID TSTM
DEVELOPMENT S OF PA WITHIN NARROW AXIS OF ML CAPES BTWN 500-1000
JKG-1. INSTABILITY DECREASES WITH NRN EXTENT WITH THE BEST CAPES
NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE. THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL BE AT LEAST
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR FOR LOW-TOPPED ROTATING STORMS CROSSING
THE MD/PA BORDER THRU THE EVE.

ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE LOCALIZED FF THREAT ASSOC WITH TRAINING
STORMS AS THEY CURL N-NWWD TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRC. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...AND WE HAVE ALREADY ISSUED A FLASH
FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE AREA AROUND SOUTH MOUNTAIN. EXPECT TO SEE
ADDITIONAL FF ADVISORIES/WARNINGS BEFORE THE EVENING IS THROUGH IF
THE SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE TO TRAIN OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL PA.

THE MID-UPPER LOW SPINNING OVR NRN VA WILL LIFT SLOWLY NEWD
TOWARD CHESAPEAKE BAY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE LATEST MDL
DATA SHOWS THE BEST H85 MSTR FLUX CONVERGENCE OVR THE S-CENTRAL
MTNS THRU THE AFTN/EVE BEFORE SHIFTING EWD INTO ERN PA LATER TNT
INTO EARLY MONDAY. EXPECT SCT-BKN CLOUD COVER TO FILL-IN AND
LOWER OVERNIGHT GIVEN DIURNAL COOLING AND MOIST SELY UPSLOPE
FLOW...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS ABV GUID BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
PESKY MID-UPPER LVL CIRCULATION IN THE MID-ATLC STATES WILL BE
LIFTING NEWD FM THE DELMARVA AT THE START OF THE PD. THIS FEATURE
WILL BE ABSORBED INTO LARGE SCALE TROUGH FCST TO SHIFT SEWD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST.

WEAK RIDGING BTWN THE DEPARTING/WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
AND APPROACHING LW TROUGH SHOULD BRING DRIER AND WARMER WX TO
CENTRAL PA BY THE AFTN...WITH ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ENDING EARLY IN
THE DAY ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER MAIN QUESTION IS HOW
FAST THE LOW CLOUDS WILL ERODE. WITH THE LLVL FLOW GRADUALLY
VEERING MORE THE WSW...ANTICIPATE A SLOW IMPROVEMENT WITH PEAKS OF
SUN LKLY BY THE AFTN. FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL SHIFT TO ELONGATED
SFC COLD FRONT ASSOC WITH THE LG SCALE TROF DIGGING INTO THE NE
STATES. BEST CHC FOR LATE AFTN TSTM WILL BE OVER THE NW MTNS WITH
POPS INCREASING INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES MON NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT
OR EARLY TUESDAY...TAKING ANY LINGERING SHRA/TSRA WITH IT. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR
WED AND THURS.

A BUILDING RIDGE OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WARM
THINGS UP BY FRIDAY. 12Z GEFS PUSHES 850MB TEMPS TO +1 SD BY FRI
AND KEEPS THEM THERE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND IS THE REMNANTS
OF ISAAC. THE 12Z GEFS AND OPERATIONAL GFS BOTH TAKE WHAT IS LEFT
OF ISAAC AND CURL IT UP AND OVER THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
NEXT WEEKEND....WHICH COULD TURN OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED. THE 12Z
OPERATIONAL ECMWF BRINGS THE REMNANTS OF ISAAC NORTHWARD FROM THE
GULF OF MEX INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY THIS WEEKEND...WHERE IT
MEANDERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE BEING EJECTED EASTWARD BY A
DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT/BINOVC CONTINUES ACRS CNTRL PA TERMINALS WITH
MVFR TO VFR CLOUD BASES GENERALLY BTWN 2-4KFT AGL. THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MID-LATE AFTN AS THE BLYR CONTINUES TO
MIX...BUT EXPECT DIURNAL COOLING/INCREASING STABILITY TO ALLOW
CIGS TO LOWER AND FILL BACK IN OVERNIGHT. TSTM DEVELOPMENT HAS
INCREASED RAPIDLY SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE...WITH CLUSTERS/BANDS
LIFTING N-NWWD FROM NRN MD/VA INTO S-CENTRAL PA. THE HIGHEST PROB
OF SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTM WILL EXIST ACRS THE SRN AIRFIELDS. HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE/TIMING ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AND THUS WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION VCSH IN THE SRN TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...
MON...AM LOW CIGS -SHRA EAST BCMG MVFR/VFR BY AFTN. PM SHRA/TSRA NW.
MON NGT-TUE...CFRONT PASSAGE. SHRA/TSRA POSS.
WED- THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ035-036-
056-057-059-063>066.

&&

SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL/EVANEGO
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...EVANEGO
AVIATION...STEINBUGL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
319 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033-034-037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-058-271930-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-
SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-SCHUYLKILL-
319 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ035-036-056-057-059-063>066-271930-
FULTON-FRANKLIN-PERRY-DAUPHIN-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-
LANCASTER-
319 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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