Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
803 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR WILL
DEVELOP FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN LATE
SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
STORMS...MAINLY THE LATER PART OF SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WDLY SCT PULSE-TYPE CONVECTION CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING
ALONG AND EAST OF WEAK SFC TROUGH RUNNING FROM ARND IPT TO AOO.
HAVE LOWERED POPS TO NR ZERO WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY...WHERE DWPTS
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 50S AND VIS IMAGERY SHOWING LACK OF ANY CU.
ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ...CAPES REMAIN NR 2000 J/KG AT 23Z...SO AN ISOLD
STRONG STORM IS POSSIBLE DOWN THERE EARLY THIS EVENING.

SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AGREES THAT SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL DWINDLE ACROSS
EASTERN PA WITH LOSS OF HEATING LATE THIS EVENING...LEADING TO A
FAIR AND DRIER OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR WORKING INTO WESTERN PA WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL TO THE 50S ACROSS THE W MTNS. THE COOL
TEMPS...A CALM WIND AND RELATIVELY WARM RIVER/STREAM WATER WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE DEEP VALLEYS OF THE
ALLEGHENIES. THE OTHER AREA SUSCEPTIBLE TO PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL
BE ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE...WHERE DWPTS WILL
REMAIN HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THURS LOOKS GORGEOUS WITH TEMPS ON THE WARM TO HOT SIDE BUT WITH
HUMIDITIES MAINLY ON THE COMFORTABLE SIDE. SERN ZONES WILL STAY A
LITTLE MORE HUMID...BUT NOT TERRIBLE FOR THE HEIGHT OF SUMMER.

CAN/T RULE OUT A MIDDAY SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ...AS
SHORTWAVE...EVIDENT IN EVENING WATER VAPOR LOOP OVR THE GRT
LKS...TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...CHANCES SEEM SLIM...SO
WILL LEAVE OUT OF FCST FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES. MOST OF THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
SHOULD BE DRY. PERHAPS A STORM OR SHOWER FRIDAY AFT ACROSS THE
NORTH...AND SOME CHC ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. BETTER CHC LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH
A COLD FRONT.

MOST OF THE CHANGES WERE TO EDGE TEMPS UP SOME...GIVEN THE
AIRMASS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA OVER MIDDLE AND LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY.
EXPECT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY TO DIUNALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. EVEN SO...TSRA COULD AFFECT KMDT SO KEPT VCTS IN THE
TAF FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY ALSO AFFECT
KLNS...BUT PROBABILITIES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS POINT.

OTHERWISE...VFR ACROSS THE RETION WILL GIVE WAY TO AREAS OF MVFR
IN BR/HZ OVERNIGHT.

VFR RETURNS FOR THURSDAY...WITH NO PRECIPITATION ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...
FRI-SUN...MAINLY VFR...BUT WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION POSSIBLY
CAUSING LOCALIZED REDUCED CONDITIONS...MAINLY THE LATER HALF OF
SUNDAY
.MON...CHC OF A SHOWER OR STORM EARLY...THEN MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...JUNG/LA CORTE/MARTIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
557 AM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-021000-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-
ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
557 AM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL ACCOMPANY A WARM FRONT AS IT PUSHES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. SCATTERED STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS SATURDAY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG...TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FORM ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF A POTENT COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

LAMBERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
314 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

PAZ034-035-011945-
BEDFORD PA-FULTON PA-
314 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL BEDFORD AND FULTON
COUNTIES...

AT 308 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR SIDELING HILL REST
AREA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
EXPECT INTENSE LIGHTNING FROM THIS STORM. DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR
SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN
A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES. THIS STORM WILL AFFECT SIDELING HILL REST
AREA...SALUVIA...HARRISSONVILLE AND MCCONNELLSBURG.

LAT...LON 3980 7821 4002 7837 4014 7809 4012 7802
      3998 7792 3995 7794 3993 7796 3992 7795
      3988 7797

FORECASTER: KF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
428 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

PAZ036-012100-
FRANKLIN PA-
428 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY...

AT 420 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR MERCERSBURG...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
THIS STORM WILL AFFECT GREENCASTLE.

LAT...LON 3973 7796 4003 7774 3972 7758 3972 7800

FORECASTER: KF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
503 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

PAZ028-050-056-012130-
JUNIATA PA-PERRY PA-SNYDER PA-
503 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN JUNIATA...
NORTHEASTERN PERRY AND SOUTHWESTERN SNYDER COUNTIES...

AT 456 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR MCCLURE...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
THIS STORM WILL AFFECT RICHFIELD AND MILLERSTOWN.

LAT...LON 4064 7741 4066 7740 4069 7730 4070 7736
      4079 7728 4064 7694 4041 7723

FORECASTER: KF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
632 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

PAZ064-012300-
ADAMS PA-
632 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL ADAMS COUNTY...

AT 625 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR GERMANTOWN...MOVING
SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
THIS STORM WILL AFFECT GERMANTOWN AND LITTLESTOWN.

LAT...LON 3983 7730 3986 7709 3972 7701 3972 7702
      3972 7728

FORECASTER: KF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
754 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

PAZ066-020015-
LANCASTER PA-
754 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL LANCASTER COUNTY...

AT 746 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR STRASBURG...MOVING
SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. THIS STORM WILL AFFECT WILLOW
STREET AND STRASBURG.

LAT...LON 3993 7602 3985 7626 4003 7634 4011 7612

FORECASTER: KF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
817 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

PAZ066-020045-
LANCASTER PA-
817 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL LANCASTER COUNTY...

AT 811 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR STRASBURG. THIS STORM
WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. EXPECT INTENSE LIGHTNING FROM
THIS STORM. DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN
LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.
THIS STORM WILL AFFECT STRASBURG.

LAT...LON 3992 7606 3992 7629 4007 7628 4009 7608

FORECASTER: KF