Alert archive / Pennsylvania / Special Weather Statements in 2012

Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

July 28, 2012Elk County, Pennsylvania

NWS State College, PA issued this special weather statement at Jul 28, 2012, 2:07 PM EDT for Elk County, Pennsylvania. It was in force for 53 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 28, 2012, 2:07 PM EDT (18:07 UTC)
Expired: Jul 28, 2012, 3:00 PM EDT
In force: 53 min
Issued by: NWS State College, PA

County Elk County, PA

The radar

The State College radar (KCCX), 104 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:11 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Pittsburgh, PA (KPIT), launched 12:00Z, 6.1 hours before the alert went out and 167 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 561 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -30 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 580 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 28 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 80 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 95 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS State College, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 28, 1:59 PM EDT, 8 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 28, 1:59 PM EDT, 8 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
159 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BRINGING AN
END TO RECENT UNSETTLED WEATHER. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION ON SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AFTER THE WEEKEND...BRINGING A RETURN
TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AND DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #535 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10PM EDT FOR THE
LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY. THAT AREA IS ON THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF HIGHER CAPES AND HAVE SEEN ONE STRONG CELL MAINTAINED
AS IT TRACKED FROM ADAMS INTO YORK COUNTY OVER THE PAST HOUR. SUB
SEVERE GUSTS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS HAVE BEEN THE STORY SO FAR...BUT
50 DBZ CORES ARE STARTING TO REACH WELL ABOVE 20K FEET.

DIURNALLY MAXIMIZED CONVECTION WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING
ELSEWHERE. CAPES HAMPERED EARLIER BY LIMITED DESTABLIZATION DUE TO
EXTENSIVE LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PA...AND WEAK SHEAR WILL KEEP SEVERE THREAT LOW FOR MOST.
EXCEPTION IS THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE SFC HEATING HAS ALLOWED T/TD
SPREADS FROM LOW- MID80S/~70...WHERE WATCH#535 IS IN EFFECT.

CELL MOTIONS ARE A CONCERN OVER NORTHWEST PA WITH SUCH LIGHT
WINDS AT 850MB AND THE REST OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND SLOWLY
ADVANCING SHEAR AXIS. NEW CONVECTION CONTS TO SPROUT OVER THE WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS.

LOCAL TRAINING AND BACKBUILDING OF CELLS BEING OBSERVED OVER MY
NORTHWEST COUNTIES AS THE SLOW MOVING UPPER SHEAR AXIS TRACKS SE.
ISSUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MY NORTHWEST QUADRANT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT FOR THIS.

ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE IN INTENSITY LATER TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT
SHOWERS TO PERSIST ALONG AND AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS
PROPOGATING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL PA.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORKS INTO NORTHWEST SECTIONS BEHIND THE
UPPER WAVE...ALLOWING TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE MID 50S THERE.
ELSEWHERE MINS SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
A CALM WIND...CLEARING SKIES AND SAT AFTN/EVE RAINFALL WILL
RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG SUN MORNING...ESP ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES.

ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRIER AIR MASS SHOULD ENSURE A DRY
SUNDAY OVER MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE
OUT AN ISOLD PM SHRA/TSRA ACROSS EASTERN PA IN VICINITY OF STALLED
FRONTAL BNDRY ON THE E COAST. PTSUNNY SKIES AND ENS MEAN 850MB
TEMPS ARND 15C SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES...FROM THE U70S ALLEGHENIES...TO THE M80S SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERAL UPPER AIR PATTERN SIMILAR AMONG MED RANGE GUIDANCE FOR
NEXT WEEK...ALL INDICATING A MEAN TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF PA.
POSITION OF TROF AXIS JUST WEST OF PA WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
DIURNALLY-ENHANCED PM SHRA/TSRA MON-WED. WED MAY BE THE WETTEST
DAY...AS TROF AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA...PROVIDING THE BEST
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WE MAY GET ONE DRY DAY
THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRES RIDGE AND DRIER AIR MASS BUILDS OVR THE
AREA. HOWEVER...FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG OPER AND ENS DATA THAT
WARMER...MORE HUMID AIR RETURNS BY LATE WEEK...ALONG WITH THE CHC
OF SHRA/TSRA.

ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND GEFS BOTH INDICATE 850 TEMPS CLOSE TO SEASONAL
VALUES...SO NO EXTREMES IN TEMPS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TODAY...BRINGING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BY VFR...BUT
EXPECT PERIODS OF LOCAL RESTRICTIONS AS HEAVIER SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OCCASIONALLY IMPACT TAF SITES.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION LATER TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW
FOG/STRATUS TO AGAIN LOWER VSBY/CIGS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ONCE THE FOG/STRATUS LAYER CLEARS TOMORROW MORNING...EXPECT VFR
FLYING CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...AM FOG LIKELY. OTHERWISE VFR.
MON...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED PM TSTM IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
TUE AND WED...MVFR POSS WITH PM RAIN SHOWERS AND SCTD TSRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-
017-018.

&&

SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...DEVOIR
AVIATION...RXR/COLBERT

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 28, 1:37 PM EDT, 30 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
137 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012

PAZ019-024>028-033>035-037-041-042-045-046-291745-
SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-SOMERSET-
BEDFORD-FULTON-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-
SOUTHERN LYCOMING-
137 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ004>006-010>012-017-018-291745-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-
137 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ036-056>059-063>066-291745-
FRANKLIN-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-
LANCASTER-
137 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 535 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE STATE WILL PRODUCE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR
LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ049>053-291745-
UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-
137 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE STATE WILL PRODUCE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR
LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 28, 12:05 PM EDT, 2 hours 2 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1205 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012

PAZ063>065-281700-
ADAMS PA-CUMBERLAND PA-YORK PA-
1205 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN ADAMS...
NORTHWESTERN YORK AND SOUTHEASTERN CUMBERLAND COUNTIES...

AT 1203 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR BENDERSVILLE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
THIS STORM WILL AFFECT YORK SPRINGS AND HEIDLERSBURG.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...THE
PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 239 AND 244...I-83 BETWEEN
MILE MARKERS 35 AND 39.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 15...ROUTE
30...STATE ROAD 94.

LAT...LON 3993 7734 4010 7727 4023 7684 4021 7683
      3986 7687

FORECASTER: MARTIN

Special weather statement, Jul 28, 12:57 PM EDT, 1 hour 10 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1257 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012

PAZ057-064>066-281800-
ADAMS PA-DAUPHIN PA-LANCASTER PA-YORK PA-
1257 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN ADAMS...
SOUTHEASTERN DAUPHIN...WEST CENTRAL LANCASTER AND WESTERN YORK
COUNTIES...

AT 1250 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR LAKE MEADE...MOVING
EAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
IN YORK SPRINGS. THIS STORM WILL AFFECT ABBOTTSTOWN...EAST BERLIN...
LEWISBERRY...THOMASVILLE...NEW SALEM AND YORK.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...THE
PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 250 AND 258...I-83 BETWEEN
MILE MARKERS 1 AND 36.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...THE HARRISBURG
AIRPORT CONNECTOR...STATE HIGHWAY 283...ROUTE 15...ROUTE 30...STATE
ROAD 94.

LAT...LON 3981 7716 4010 7710 4012 7706 4025 7659
      4022 7658 3972 7662

FORECASTER: MARTIN

Special weather statement, Jul 28, 2:07 PM EDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
207 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012

PAZ004-005-010-281900-
ELK PA-MCKEAN PA-WARREN PA-
207 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN ELK...SOUTHEASTERN
WARREN AND SOUTHWESTERN MCKEAN COUNTIES...

AT 202 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR LYNCH...MOVING EAST AT
15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
THIS STORM WILL AFFECT WETMORE...JAMES CITY AND WILCOX.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 6...ROUTE 219...
STATE ROAD 66...STATE ROAD 120...STATE ROAD 255.

LAT...LON 4167 7857 4136 7867 4144 7897 4162 7896
      4162 7910 4163 7911 4173 7907

FORECASTER: MARTIN

The office that day

Everything else NWS State College, PA issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 27, 9:24 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Dauphin	51 min
Jul 28, 4:29 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Cambria	46 min
Jul 28, 6:10 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Cambria	35 min
Jul 28, 12:05 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Cumberland	55 min
Jul 28, 12:13 PM EDT	Flash Flood Watch	CTP	Cameron, Centre, Clearfield, Clinton, Elk, McKean and 2 more	8 hr
Jul 28, 12:57 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	York	63 min
Jul 28, 1:49 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Lancaster, York	56 min
Jul 28, 2:18 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Juniata, Mifflin	42 min
Jul 28, 2:27 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Cameron	48 min
Jul 28, 3:31 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Franklin	29 min
Jul 28, 4:01 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Juniata, Mifflin, Perry	29 min
Jul 28, 4:20 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Adams	40 min
Jul 28, 4:25 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Clinton, Lycoming, Potter, Tioga	65 min
Jul 28, 4:35 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Montour, Union	55 min
Jul 28, 4:42 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Cumberland, Juniata, Perry	33 min
Jul 28, 5:04 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Northumberland	56 min
Jul 28, 5:05 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Adams, Cumberland, Dauphin, Lebanon, Perry, York	55 min
Jul 28, 5:30 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Lycoming	30 min
Jul 28, 5:38 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Union	67 min
Jul 28, 5:52 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Dauphin, Lancaster, Lebanon, York	53 min
Jul 28, 6:01 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Cumberland	29 min
Jul 28, 6:08 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	CTP	Lycoming, Northumberland	119 min
Jul 28, 6:26 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	CTP	Lycoming	102 min
Jul 28, 6:46 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Lancaster, Lebanon, York	59 min
Jul 28, 7:48 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Schuylkill	27 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Pennsylvania, 2012 Every special weather statement in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.