Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
154 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE EVENING. THERE IS A THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THE FRONT CAN GET TO THE MASON DIXON LINE THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE
BORDER AND MAINTAIN UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE KEYSTONE STATE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
SHOULD ARRIVE BY THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES THE FRONTAL
ZONE SOUTHWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SVR TSTM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE AREA...SOUTH OF THE
FRONT WHICH APPEARS TO BE FROM SULLIVAN CO PA TO KDUJ/KFIG.
THE PRIMARY SVR TSTM HAZARDS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL...AND SOME REPORTS OF WIND DMG ALREADY IN. HOWEVER 25-35KTS
OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND DEEP LAYER WLY FLOW WILL FAVOR BOTH MULTI
AND SUPER CELLULAR STRUCTURES WITH SOME LINEAR/BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS - AND THE EARLIER CLUSTERS APPEAR TO BE ORGANIZING INTO
ROUGH LINES/BOWS. WEAK 0-1KM SHEAR AND HIGH LCL/S SUGGEST THAT
THE ENVIRONMENT IS LIKELY NOT CONDUCIVE FOR TORNADOES.

SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EVEN SCT SHRA IN THE
CENTRAL COS SHOULD LINGER INTO THE 03Z TIME FRAME BEFORE WEAKENING
AND DISSIPATING. FOG IS PROBABLE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...AS MSTR REMAINS HIGH AFTER THE STORMS AND FLOW BECOMES
LIGHT.

HEAT ADVY WILL EXPIRE SOON...AND RIGHT ON TIME AS THE RAIN DROPS
THE TEMPS DRAMATICALLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MDL DATA INDICATES QUASI-STATIONARY EAST/WEST FRONT WILL BISECT
THE STATE ON THURSDAY. DIURNAL HEATING OF MOIST AIR MASS SOUTH OF
FRONT SHOULD RESULT NUMEROUS TSRA SOUTH OF I-80 BY AFTN. SVR
THREAT NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH...GIVEN WEAK SHEAR. HOWEVER...MODERATE
CAPES SUGGEST A FEW STRONG PULSE-TYPE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SOUTH. NR HAVE PAINTED A SHARP DECREASE IN POPS IN DRIER AIR MASS
ACROSS NORTHERN PA. DESPITE MCLDY SKIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE STATE...TEMPS STILL LIKELY TO BE A BIT ABV SEASONAL NORMS
ON THURSDAY. ENS MEAN 850MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS FROM THE L80S OVR
THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...TO THE U80S IN THE SUSQ VALLEY.

LATEST MDL GUIDANCE A BIT STRONGER WITH SHORTWAVE TROF DROPPING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS WEEK. THE RESULTING SFC WAVE WILL
LIKELY SPREAD AN OVERRUNNING RAINFALL INTO SOUTHERN PA LATE THU
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN PA
FRIDAY...AS SLOW MOVING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE
MASON DIXON LINE. 00Z GEFS INDICATING AN ANOMALOUS EASTERLY LL JET
AND PWATS FOCUSED ALONG THE S TIER COUNTIES...A SIGNAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. CURRENT GEFS MEAN QPF BTWN FRI AND FRI NITE IS
ARND AN INCH OVR THE S TIER. ALTHOUGH LIGHTER AMTS ARE EXPECTED
FURTHER NORTH...BULK OF MDL DATA SUGGESTS SOME RAIN IS LIKELY FOR
ALL BUT THE N TIER. HAVE RAISED POPS ACCORDINGLY. CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN SHOULD RESULT IN A COOL FRIDAY WITH TEMPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MTNS LIKELY ONLY REACHING THE L70S.

CONFIDENCE OF A DRY WEEKEND STILL HIGH...AS ALL MED RANGE
GUIDANCE PUSHES TROF AND ASSOC SFC LOW EAST OF THE AREA. CAN/T
RULE OUT AN ISOLD PM TSRA ACROSS THE S TIER SATURDAY IN VICINITY
OF STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY NR THE MASON DIXON. TEMPS SHOULD START
THE WEEKEND NR NORMAL...THEN A WARMING TREND EXPECTED SUNDAY...AS
SFC HIGH PASSES EAST OF PA AND RETURN SW FLOW OVERSPREADS THE
REGION.

A DRY NW FLOW PATTERN APPEARS LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS A
BIT ABV SEASONAL NORMS BASED ON ENS MEAN 850 TEMPS. A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES DIVING SE ACROSS THE REGION COULD BRING A SHRA/TSRA TO
PARTS OF THE AREA MON/TUE. HOWEVER...GEFS PWATS NOT IMPRESSIVE...SO
SIG RAINFALL SEEMS UNLIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH SEEMS TO BE PAST KDUJ AT THIS TIME...AND
SHOULD GET INTO THE VCTY OF KUNV AND KIPT VERY SHORTLY...BUT THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY BE DELAYED/SLOWED THIS EVENING. BUT SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN LINGERING TO THE N OF THE MAIN FRONT/WIND SHIFT...SO
WILL KEEP MENTION OF SHRA THERE AT ALL SITES THRU 22/23Z.
MOISTURE HIGH SO REDUCTIONS TO IFR POSSIBLE IF THE HEAVIEST
DOWNPOURS MOVE RIGHT OVER ANY OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS.
HOWEVER...THE RISK FOR IFR IS LOW UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN THE
LINGERING LLVL MSTR AND CALMING AIR WILL LEAD TO FOG. WILL INCLUDE
MENTIONS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AT ALL SITES FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE PA/MD
LATER TONIGHT AND STAY CLOSE TO THAT LATITUDE THROUGH
FRI...KEEPING UNSETTLED CONDS ACRS SRN PA. A MOIST EAST/SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACRS SE CANADA...AND
LKLY BRING LOWER CIGS OCNL SHRA/TSRA TO SRN AIRFIELDS THRU THE END
OF THE WEEK.

OUTLOOK...
FRI...MVFR WITH OCNL -RA CENTRAL/SOUTH.
SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR.
MON...MAINLY VFR...SCT PM TSTMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ036-056-057-
059-063>066.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...DANGELO

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