Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
154 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE EVENING. THERE IS A THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THE FRONT CAN GET TO THE MASON DIXON LINE THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE
BORDER AND MAINTAIN UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE KEYSTONE STATE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
SHOULD ARRIVE BY THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES THE FRONTAL
ZONE SOUTHWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SVR TSTM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE AREA...SOUTH OF THE
FRONT WHICH APPEARS TO BE FROM SULLIVAN CO PA TO KDUJ/KFIG.
THE PRIMARY SVR TSTM HAZARDS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL...AND SOME REPORTS OF WIND DMG ALREADY IN. HOWEVER 25-35KTS
OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND DEEP LAYER WLY FLOW WILL FAVOR BOTH MULTI
AND SUPER CELLULAR STRUCTURES WITH SOME LINEAR/BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS - AND THE EARLIER CLUSTERS APPEAR TO BE ORGANIZING INTO
ROUGH LINES/BOWS. WEAK 0-1KM SHEAR AND HIGH LCL/S SUGGEST THAT
THE ENVIRONMENT IS LIKELY NOT CONDUCIVE FOR TORNADOES.

SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EVEN SCT SHRA IN THE
CENTRAL COS SHOULD LINGER INTO THE 03Z TIME FRAME BEFORE WEAKENING
AND DISSIPATING. FOG IS PROBABLE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...AS MSTR REMAINS HIGH AFTER THE STORMS AND FLOW BECOMES
LIGHT.

HEAT ADVY WILL EXPIRE SOON...AND RIGHT ON TIME AS THE RAIN DROPS
THE TEMPS DRAMATICALLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MDL DATA INDICATES QUASI-STATIONARY EAST/WEST FRONT WILL BISECT
THE STATE ON THURSDAY. DIURNAL HEATING OF MOIST AIR MASS SOUTH OF
FRONT SHOULD RESULT NUMEROUS TSRA SOUTH OF I-80 BY AFTN. SVR
THREAT NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH...GIVEN WEAK SHEAR. HOWEVER...MODERATE
CAPES SUGGEST A FEW STRONG PULSE-TYPE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SOUTH. NR HAVE PAINTED A SHARP DECREASE IN POPS IN DRIER AIR MASS
ACROSS NORTHERN PA. DESPITE MCLDY SKIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE STATE...TEMPS STILL LIKELY TO BE A BIT ABV SEASONAL NORMS
ON THURSDAY. ENS MEAN 850MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS FROM THE L80S OVR
THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...TO THE U80S IN THE SUSQ VALLEY.

LATEST MDL GUIDANCE A BIT STRONGER WITH SHORTWAVE TROF DROPPING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS WEEK. THE RESULTING SFC WAVE WILL
LIKELY SPREAD AN OVERRUNNING RAINFALL INTO SOUTHERN PA LATE THU
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN PA
FRIDAY...AS SLOW MOVING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE
MASON DIXON LINE. 00Z GEFS INDICATING AN ANOMALOUS EASTERLY LL JET
AND PWATS FOCUSED ALONG THE S TIER COUNTIES...A SIGNAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. CURRENT GEFS MEAN QPF BTWN FRI AND FRI NITE IS
ARND AN INCH OVR THE S TIER. ALTHOUGH LIGHTER AMTS ARE EXPECTED
FURTHER NORTH...BULK OF MDL DATA SUGGESTS SOME RAIN IS LIKELY FOR
ALL BUT THE N TIER. HAVE RAISED POPS ACCORDINGLY. CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN SHOULD RESULT IN A COOL FRIDAY WITH TEMPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MTNS LIKELY ONLY REACHING THE L70S.

CONFIDENCE OF A DRY WEEKEND STILL HIGH...AS ALL MED RANGE
GUIDANCE PUSHES TROF AND ASSOC SFC LOW EAST OF THE AREA. CAN/T
RULE OUT AN ISOLD PM TSRA ACROSS THE S TIER SATURDAY IN VICINITY
OF STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY NR THE MASON DIXON. TEMPS SHOULD START
THE WEEKEND NR NORMAL...THEN A WARMING TREND EXPECTED SUNDAY...AS
SFC HIGH PASSES EAST OF PA AND RETURN SW FLOW OVERSPREADS THE
REGION.

A DRY NW FLOW PATTERN APPEARS LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS A
BIT ABV SEASONAL NORMS BASED ON ENS MEAN 850 TEMPS. A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES DIVING SE ACROSS THE REGION COULD BRING A SHRA/TSRA TO
PARTS OF THE AREA MON/TUE. HOWEVER...GEFS PWATS NOT IMPRESSIVE...SO
SIG RAINFALL SEEMS UNLIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH SEEMS TO BE PAST KDUJ AT THIS TIME...AND
SHOULD GET INTO THE VCTY OF KUNV AND KIPT VERY SHORTLY...BUT THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY BE DELAYED/SLOWED THIS EVENING. BUT SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN LINGERING TO THE N OF THE MAIN FRONT/WIND SHIFT...SO
WILL KEEP MENTION OF SHRA THERE AT ALL SITES THRU 22/23Z.
MOISTURE HIGH SO REDUCTIONS TO IFR POSSIBLE IF THE HEAVIEST
DOWNPOURS MOVE RIGHT OVER ANY OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS.
HOWEVER...THE RISK FOR IFR IS LOW UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN THE
LINGERING LLVL MSTR AND CALMING AIR WILL LEAD TO FOG. WILL INCLUDE
MENTIONS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AT ALL SITES FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE PA/MD
LATER TONIGHT AND STAY CLOSE TO THAT LATITUDE THROUGH
FRI...KEEPING UNSETTLED CONDS ACRS SRN PA. A MOIST EAST/SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACRS SE CANADA...AND
LKLY BRING LOWER CIGS OCNL SHRA/TSRA TO SRN AIRFIELDS THRU THE END
OF THE WEEK.

OUTLOOK...
FRI...MVFR WITH OCNL -RA CENTRAL/SOUTH.
SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR.
MON...MAINLY VFR...SCT PM TSTMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ036-056-057-
059-063>066.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...DANGELO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
101 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

PAZ012-017>019-024>028-033>035-041-042-045-046-049>053-058-191715-
NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-
BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-
NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-
SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-SCHUYLKILL-
101 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 491 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MOVE ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA ON THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PAZ036-056-057-059-063>066-191715-
FRANKLIN-PERRY-DAUPHIN-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
101 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 491 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MOVE ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA ON THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PAZ004>006-010-011-037-191715-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-TIOGA-
101 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING.
THE PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

GARTNER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1232 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

PAZ033-034-181700-
BEDFORD PA-SOMERSET PA-
1232 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOMERSET AND WESTERN BEDFORD
COUNTIES...

AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVERED PORTIONS OF BEDFORD AND
SOMERSET COUNTIES AT 1224 PM EDT. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE
GENERALLY MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND FILL POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. THE RAIN WILL CAUSE RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 100
AND 131.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 30...ROUTE
219.

LAT...LON 3975 7880 4002 7932 4012 7922 4013 7918
      4018 7915 4029 7905 4029 7898 4027 7890
      4025 7889 4024 7878 4022 7867

FORECASTER: DANGELO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
101 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

PAZ012-019-045-046-181745-
NORTHERN CLINTON PA-SOUTHERN CENTRE PA-SOUTHERN CLINTON PA-
SOUTHERN LYCOMING PA-
101 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL CENTRE...SOUTH
CENTRAL LYCOMING AND SOUTHEASTERN CLINTON COUNTIES...

AT 100 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR DUNNSTOWN...MOVING
EAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PENNY SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. THIS STORM WILL AFFECT AVIS...LOGANTON...CARROLL AND MCCALL
DAM STATE PARK.

THIS WILL IMPACT I-80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 176 AND 194.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 220...STATE
ROAD 120.

LAT...LON 4116 7709 4107 7713 4107 7714 4104 7715
      4096 7723 4106 7756 4123 7748

FORECASTER: GRUMM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
127 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

PAZ026>028-036-056-063-181815-
CUMBERLAND PA-FRANKLIN PA-HUNTINGDON PA-JUNIATA PA-MIFFLIN PA-
PERRY PA-
127 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL
FRANKLIN...SOUTHERN HUNTINGDON...SOUTHWESTERN JUNIATA...SOUTHWESTERN
MIFFLIN...SOUTHWESTERN PERRY AND WEST CENTRAL CUMBERLAND COUNTIES...

AT 122 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM
BLACKLOG TO CASSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PENNY SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT THREE SPRINGS...ORBISONIA...SHADE
GAP AND BIG SPRING STATE PARK.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 188
AND 212.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT ROUTE 522.

LAT...LON 4017 7738 4003 7775 4028 7811 4045 7776

FORECASTER: GRUMM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
209 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1250 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HERNDON                 40.71N  76.84W
07/18/2012                   NORTHUMBERLAND     PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN.

0130 PM     HAIL             SHERMANSDALE            40.35N  77.18W
07/18/2012  E1.25 INCH       PERRY              PA   PUBLIC

            HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL REPORTED.

0131 PM     HAIL             BROAD TOP CITY          40.20N  78.14W
07/18/2012  E1.00 INCH       HUNTINGDON         PA   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED.

0145 PM     HAIL             CARLISLE                40.20N  77.20W
07/18/2012  E0.75 INCH       CUMBERLAND         PA   PUBLIC

            PENNY SIZED HAIL REPORTED.

0205 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NE CARLISLE           40.25N  77.14W
07/18/2012                   CUMBERLAND         PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE BRANCHES DOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1200246 CTP1200248 CTP1200247 CTP1200250 CTP1200249

COLBERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
229 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

PAZ042-053-181900-
COLUMBIA PA-SULLIVAN PA-
229 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL COLUMBIA AND
SOUTHEASTERN SULLIVAN COUNTIES...

AT 227 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR RICKETTS GLEN STATE
PARK...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE
WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE RAIN WILL
CAUSE RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS. THIS STORM WILL AFFECT
RED ROCK.

THIS WILL IMPACT STATE ROAD 118.

LAT...LON 4136 7629 4123 7631 4128 7647 4142 7641
      4142 7626 4140 7626

FORECASTER: DANGELO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
239 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

PAZ041-042-046-181915-
NORTHERN LYCOMING PA-SOUTHERN LYCOMING PA-SULLIVAN PA-
239 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL LYCOMING AND
SOUTHERN SULLIVAN COUNTIES...

AT 236 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR BARBOURS...MOVING EAST
AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. THIS STORM WILL AFFECT PICTURE ROCKS AND LAIRDSVILLE.

THIS WILL IMPACT I-180 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 13 AND 22.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 220...STATE
ROAD 118.

LAT...LON 4137 7631 4131 7639 4131 7641 4125 7648
      4115 7660 4127 7696 4142 7692

FORECASTER: DANGELO