Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
408 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR THE
PENNSYLVANIA...MARYLAND BORDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE REGION IS BASKING UNDER HAZY SUNSHINE AND MUGGY DEWPOINTS.
THERE WILL BE SOME DROP OFF IN HUMIDITY AS NW FLOW PUSHES SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
THAT WILL MAINLY AFFECT NORTHERN AREAS. CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA
WILL REMAIN STEAMY INTO THE WEEKEND.

VERY WARM MID LEVELS AND A LACK OF A WELL DEFINED TRIGGER WILL
KEEP A LID ON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY...SO LITTLE RELIEF SEEN
FOR THE HEAT FROM MOTHER NATURE.

850 MB TEMPS BETWEEN 20-24C NORTH TO SOUTH WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS
IN THE MID 80S NORTH...AND MID 90S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE MD BORDER MAY NUDGE THE CENTURY MARK.
HUMID AIR LINGERING ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WILL RESULT IN
HEAT INDICES WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 100 THIS AFTN.

FAIR BUT MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT OVER ABOUT THE
SRN HALF OF THE REGION. DRIER AIR WILL MAKE FOR MORE COMFORTABLE
SLEEPING OVER THE NORTHERN TIER. THERE IS SOME UPSTREAM CONVECTION
MOVING TWD CHICAGO AT THIS HOUR...BUT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT THIS
WILL STEER ESE AND EVENTUALLY MISS THE REGION OFF TO OUR SOUTH
ALONG THE RIBBON OF HIGHEST MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER DAY OF HEAT WITH SURGING HUMIDITY IS IN STORE FOR
SATURDAY. APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 90S FOR
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COMMONWEALTH AND HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST.

BIGGEST QUESTION FOR SATURDAY WILL BE IF WE SEE ANOTHER MCS ROTATE
THRU THE NRN EDGE OF THE MID LATITUDE RIDGE. NEW NAM BRINGS AN
AREA OF RAIN THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON...WHILE THE NEW GFS IS MORE
AMORPHOUS WITH THE QPF IT GENERATES. THE GEFS/SREF BOTH SHOW A
PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN SO IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD IDEA TO RAISE
AFTERNOON POPS A BIT TO AT LEAST COVER THE CHANCE OF STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY EWD ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NERN STATES...WITH EMBEDDED VORTICITY
MAXIMA TRANSLATING EWD WITHIN FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER. ONE DISTINCT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
BE OVER THE IND/OH AREA...AND WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS
PA INTO THE DELMARVA BY 12Z SUN. THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH
AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE HOT SE
RIDGE TO PRODUCE POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT MCS/SEVERE WIND. THE DY2
SPC SLGT RISK COVERS NEARLY ALL OF THE CWA EXCEPT FOR THE NRN
TIER.

THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES OFFER A REASONABLY SIMILAR AND SEEMINGLY
REASONABLE LARGER SCALE FLOW PATTERN FROM THE ERN PACIFIC ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA.  THIS FLOW IS  HIGHLIGHTED AT MID-LATITUDES BY MEAN
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS JUST OFF THE US WEST COAST AND OVER THE
NERN US...SANDWICHING A VERY HOT AND PERSISTENT SUMMERTIME RIDGE
EXPANDED OUT FROM THE CENTRAL US. THIS IS ESSENTIALLY AN EXTENSION
OF THE SHORT TERM WEATHER PATTERN TO A LARGE DEGREE WITH SLIGHT
RETROGRESSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

HPC D3-7 PROGS SHOW RETREATING SFC HIGH MON FOLLOWED BY PCPN
CHANCES ASSOCD WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM AROUND MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO SATURDAY
A VERY SUMMER-LIKE AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE FCST AREA.
EXCEPTIONS WILL BE LATER TONIGHT THRU JUST AFTER DAWN SATURDAY AS
SOME THIN FOG OR HAZE DROPS VIS TO BETWEEN 3-5 MILES IN SOME
AREAS. THIS SHUD IMPROVE BY MID MORNING AS WE MIX OUT.

A GUSTY NW BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON AT MOST TERMINALS WILL RETURN TO
MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY REDUCED
CONDITIONS WITH THE EXPECTATIONS OF SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOPING. TIMING AND LOCATION REMAIN QUESTIONABLE...BUT
REDUCED CONDITIONS WOULD REMAIN A POSSIBILITY INTO THE EVENING
WITH ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES MANAGE TO FORM.

OUTLOOK...

FRI NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH LOCAL
RESTRICTIONS.

SAT-MON...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHC OF A SHOWER/TSTM. FOG AND HZ
EARLY.

TUES...MAINLY VFR BUT WITH RESTRICTIONS IN ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS
THAT FORM.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ028-035-036-056-
057-059-063>066.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
639 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

PAZ024-025-033-034-292345-
BEDFORD PA-BLAIR PA-CAMBRIA PA-SOMERSET PA-
639 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN BEDFORD...
NORTHERN SOMERSET...SOUTHWESTERN BLAIR AND SOUTHWESTERN CAMBRIA
COUNTIES...

AT 628 PM EDT...A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WAS LOCATED FROM OGLETOWN TO LAUREL MOUNTAIN...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND UP TO PENNY SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS. THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT OSTERBURG...CESSNA...
BEDFORD...AND JEROME...WESTMONT...LORAIN...JOHNSTOWN...AND
ELIM...NEW ENTERPRISE AND EVERETT.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...THE
PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 100 AND 163...I-70 BETWEEN
MILE MARKERS 147 AND 150...I-99 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 20.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...THE JOHNSTOWN
EXPRESSWAY...ROUTE 30...ROUTE 219...ROUTE 220...STATE ROAD 56.

LAT...LON 4012 7921 4013 7918 4015 7917 4039 7898
      4037 7863 4032 7825 4026 7825 4022 7822
      3999 7822 3996 7823 3995 7824 4004 7930
      4005 7930

FORECASTER: LAMBERT