Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1210 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON
AND REACH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY AND MORE COMFORTABLE...THOUGH STILL SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. AN ANOMALOUS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC COLD FRONT MARCHING ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU OF NWRN PENN AT
MIDDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE FRONT WILL
SOON BE ENTERING A MORE FAVORABLE/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR RAPID
TSRA DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY AND SCENT MTNS. FIRST
LIGHTNING STRIKE OCCURRED RECENTLY WITH A FRESH STORM FORMING JUST
AHEAD OF THE CFRONT AND ABOUT 20NM NNE OF KUNV.

THE CFROPA OCCURRING CLOSE TO AND JUST AFTER THE TIME OF MAX
HEATING...COMBINED WITH PWATS BTWN 1-2SD ABV NORMAL...SHOULD PRODUCE
A GOOD CHC OF RAIN IN MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE TO THE
NW OF A LINE FROM KDUJ TO KELZ...WHERE DRIER DEWPOINTS ARE
OVERSPREADING THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE CFRONT.

SVR WX IN THE FORM OF MULTI CELL TSRA /WITH BRIEF DAMAGING
DOWNBURSTS AND ONE-INCH HAIL/ APPEARS A POSSIBILITY ACROSS OUR SE
ZONES...WHERE FROPA WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING.

SREF DATA INDICATES THE AREA FROM MDT SEWRD COULD SEE CAPES NEAR
2000J/KG...SUPPORTING SOME STRONG UPDRAFTS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF LG
HAIL. SHEAR PROFILE SUGGESTS MULTI-CELL STORMS AS THE PRIMARY
TYPE...ALONG WITH A FEW MINI BOWS ECHOES WITH ENHANCED/FOCUSED
DOWNDRAFTS.

SIGNIFICANT RAIN AMOUNTS DON/T APPEAR TO BE IN THE CARDS...AS FRONT
WILL MOVE STEADILY ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
PWATS IN ADVANCE OF FROPA /AND POTENTIALLY BRIEF TRAINING OF A FEW
TSRA MOVING FROM 240-250 DEG/ SHOULD PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME LOCALIZED
ONE HALF INCH PLUS RAIN AMTS...WITH MOST PLACES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MTNS AND MIDDLE SUSQ VALLEY SEEING 0.25 OF AN INCH OR LESS.

MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VARY FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS THE NW
MTNS...TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S IN THE CENTRAL ZONES...AND AROUND
90F IN THE GREATER YORK...LANCASTER AND HARRISBURG AREA. HEAT
INDICES IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WILL BE IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
CDFRONT WILL SLOW DOWN BEFORE EXITING EASTERN PA THIS EVENING...THE
RESULT SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPSTREAM TROF. THUS...HAVE HELD
ONTO THE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA UNTIL AROUND 08Z FROM HARRISBURG
EASTWARD. CLEARING SKIES...A LGT WIND AND RECENT RAINFALL COULD
RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE STATE...WHERE PRES GRADIENT BECOMES WEAKEST.

LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL OVERSPREAD PA ON SATURDAY IN WAKE OF
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE STATE
SHOULD PROVIDE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...LGT WINDS AND MUCH LOWER
HUMIDITY THAN RECENT DAYS. MDL 800MB TEMPS NR 10C SHOULD TRANSLATE
TO HIGH TEMPS FROM THE U70S OVR THE ALLEGHENY MTNS...TO THE M80S
ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COOL NIGHT APPEARS IN STORE FOR THE REGION SAT NIGHT WHEN HIGH
PRES PASSES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. COMBINATION OF DRY AIR...MCLEAR SKY
AND A CALM WIND SHOULD RESULT IN READINGS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENIES SAT NIGHT.

AS HIGH PRES PASSES OFF THE E COAST...RETURN SW FLOW WILL BRING A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN WARMTH AND HUMIDITY ON SUNDAY. SOME INCREASE IN
MID LVL CLOUDINESS IS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN...THE RESULT OF
WAA IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATING A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OVR THE
NORTHEAST CONUS NEXT WEEK. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...A POTENT COLD
FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT OR MONDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY
THE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA. AFTER THAT...THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD
FEATURE COOL AND MAINLY DRY WX. STEEP LOWER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE
RATES...ASSOC WITH POOL OF ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR ALOFT...WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SCT AFTN/EVENING -SHRA ACROSS THE
N MTNS...CLOSEST TO CLOSED LOW CENTER.

AFTER A FEW DAYS OF COOL WX...MODERATING CONDS LIKELY FOR LATER
NEXT WEEK AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEEKEND.

AT 16Z...CONDITIONS RANGED FROM MVFR TO VFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS CENTRAL PENN...WITH AREAS OF 5-6SM HZ ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.

SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR KELZ TO KDUJ AND KPIT...AND WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING COVERAGE OF MDT SHRA AND SCATTERED TSRA
ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF PENN THIS AFTERNOON.

TSTMS MOST LIKELY IN CENTRAL MTNS/MID SUSQ VALLEY BETWEEN 16-21Z...
THEN ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND ERN MTNS BETWEEN 19-23Z.
THESE WILL BRING LOCAL RESTRICTIONS...AND SOME STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SVR WITH LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL IN THE
EAST AS AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

AFTER 00Z EXPECT FRONT TO CLEAR THE CWA...WITH CONVECTION QUICKLY
DIMINISHING IN THE SE. RAINFALL...ALONG WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY
FLOW...MAY BRING FOR LOW STRATOCU AND FOG/MIST LATE FRI NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...MAINLY VFR.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD TSTMS WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSS.
MON AND TUE...MVFR CIGS POSS IN SHOWERS/SCT TSRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...LAMBERT/RXR

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
358 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N LEWISBURG           40.99N  76.89W
06/22/2012                   UNION              PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND WIRES REPORTED DOWN IN KELLY TWP.

&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME

EVENT NUMBER CTP1200133

EVANEGO

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