Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
535 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND
BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TRANSPORT DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT CROSSES THE REGION EARLY
TONIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE PRIMARILY OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME ANCHORED
NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST DUE TO STRONG HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING IN
THE NORTH ATLANTIC...ENSURING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF DAILY SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
TOR WATCHES 332 AND 333 REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM ACROSS SCENT
PENN AND THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

RECENTLY ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SERN THIRD OF THE CWA.

SFC WARM FRONT AT 21Z EXTENDED FROM THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS TO
NORTHERN DELAWARE. TEMPS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WERE
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S CREATING MIXED LAYER CAPE OF
SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG AT BEST, THIS WAS HELPING TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THE STRONG ROTATION DISPLAYED BY THE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AS THEY
CLIMB THE SHALLOW COOLER AIRMASS.

HOWEVER...SHORT RANGE/HIGH RES MODELS SHOW THIS WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND INCREASING LLVL INSTABILITY/SHEAR SPREADING NWD INTO
SCENT PENN AND THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY THIS EVENING. HIGH...0-1KM
EHI OF 1.5-2.5 M2/S2 IN THIS AREA WILL SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES FROM THE LAURELS TO THE
WRN LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

THE SECOND...AND MUCH LARGER SCALE FEATURE IS A SQUALL LINE
/QUASI-NCFRB TYPE FEATURE THAT WILL SWEEP STEADILY TO THE
NORTHEAST AT 25-30KTS UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS LINE WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP SOME DISTINCT BOW FEATURES AS IT HEADS INTO THE
BETTER LLVL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND INTERACTS WITH THE
NEARLY EAST/WEST WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SRN TIER OF PENN.

THIRD...WILL BE THE HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL FROM THE
COMBINATION OF THE FIRST FEW BATCHES OF SUPER-CELLULAR
STORMS...AND THE SECOND NCFRB FEATURE ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
WIDESPREAD 1-2 RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS
AROUND 3 INCHES OVER THE NEXT 6-8 HOURS ACROSS THE SE THIRD OF THE
CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE EASTERN ZONES BY SUNRISE ON SAT
AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO.
EARLY FOG OR STRATUS MAY COVER THE REGION SAT AM...BUT THE WESTERLY
WINDS PICK UP QUICKLY. 8H TEMPS WILL START THE DAY ABOUT 2C OVER
NWRN PA. THE STRONG EARLY JUNE SUNSHINE WILL HEAT AND MIX THE TEMPS
AND CAUSE THEM TO RISE ON A STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE. WILL PLAY IT
MORE-CLOUDY IN THE NW WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES TO CAUSE STRATOCU. DOWNSLOPING IN THE SE WILL LEAD TO
LESS CLOUD COVERAGE...BUT WILL KEEP P/S FOR CLOUD COVER.
SFC BOUNDARY HANGS CLOSE TO OUR NERN ZONES THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
SHOWERS ASSOCD WITH IT SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NE. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL
SPOKES OF VORTICITY WILL ROTATE THROUGH DURING THE DAY AND THE
UPSLOPE INTO THE WRN MTS IN THE POST-FRONTAL FLOW WILL CREATE SCT
SHRA - MAINLY N OF I-80. MAX TEMPS WILL BE 5-10F BELOW NORMALS SAT.
EXPECT VERY SIMILAR WEATHER FOR SUNDAY...AS THE STACKED LOWS
PROPAGATE INTO NEW ENGLAND/ACROSS UPSTATE NY. WHILE 8H TEMPS DO NOT
GET ALL THAT COLD ON SUNDAY...THE DYNAMICS WILL BE CLOSER AND
PROVIDE LIFT TO MOISTURE WRAPPED IN OFF THE NRN ATLANTIC AND THE
GREAT LAKES. WILL CONTINUE 20-30 POPS SAT NIGHT AND RAMP THEM UP
INTO THE HIGH CHC TO HIGH LIKELY RANGE BY SUNDAY AFTN AS THE UPPER
LOW GETS CLOSE. THE DRYING WRLY FLOW WILL BRING DEWPOINTS INTO THE
40S AND PWATS REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL. MINS SUN MORNING WILL BE
ABOUT 5F BELOW NORMALS UNDER CLOUDS AND LIGHT WEST WINDS. MINS WILL
BE KEPT UP NEAR NORMALS MON AM WITH A STRONGER WNW SFC FLOW
OVERNIGHT AND SOME CLOUDS...ESP IN THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRONG NEGATIVE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION /NAO/ IS PROJECTED
TO CONTINUE AND HELP SUPPORT/ANCHOR A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST STATES AND CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS PERIOD. THIS PATTERN
WILL FAVOR NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH OCCASIONAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AS DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THE WEST-SIDE OF
CYCLONIC/NW FLOW ALOFT.

HIGHEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
SUNDAY...BUT THERE WILL BE NEARLY A DAILY CHC INTO THU.

TEMPS WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...GIVEN
ABNORMALLY LOW HEIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRENGTHENING SFC LOW WILL LIFT NWD ACROSS THE EASTERN GLAKES OVER
THE NEXT 24 HRS...DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL PA.
DEEP MSTR TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH AMPLE
LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL PRODUCE NMRS SHOWERS AND SCT TSRA THRU THIS
EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE.

OCNL MVFR WITH LWR CIGS AND VIS RESTRICTIONS LKLY AROUND COLD
FROPA THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. ADDED TSRA TO TAFS AS COSPA DATA
INDICATES SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS LKLY. WND SHFT TO
THE WSW AFT 06Z...WITH LOW MVFR/IFR CIGS PERSISTING INTO SAT
ACROSS THE WRN MTNS /BFD AND JST/.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...AM LOW CIGS POSSIBLE W MTNS.
SUN-WED...SCT SHRA W/ MVFR CIGS PSBL...MAINLY AT JST AND BFD.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ028-036-
049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/MARTIN/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/MARTIN
LONG TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN/EVANEGO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
516 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-037-041-042-045-046-022130-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-
SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-
516 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THIS EVENING. HEAVY RAIN BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES IS LIKELY WITH
THIS LINE OF STORMS...AND STRONG WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH
AREA ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PAZ024>027-033>035-022130-
CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-
516 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

...TORNADO WATCH 332 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PAZ049>053-058-022130-
UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-SCHUYLKILL-
516 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PAZ028-036-056-057-059-063>066-022130-
JUNIATA-FRANKLIN-PERRY-DAUPHIN-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-
LANCASTER-
516 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY...
...TORNADO WATCH 332 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.
   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

LAMBERT/MARTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
447 PM EDT FRI JUN 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0426 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     1 N SHREWSBURY          39.79N 76.68W
06/01/2012                   YORK               PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MACH

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
518 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

PAZ066-012145-
LANCASTER PA-
518 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN LANCASTER COUNTY...

AT 514 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR LANCASTER...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT LITITZ...ROTHSVILLE AND DENVER.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 273
AND 290.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...STATE HIGHWAY
283...ROUTE 30...ROUTE 222...ROUTE 322...STATE ROAD 501.

LAT...LON 3994 7630 4006 7649 4026 7629 4032 7615
      4021 7598

FORECASTER: CR/RG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
522 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

PAZ017-024-025-033>035-012215-
BEDFORD PA-BLAIR PA-CAMBRIA PA-CLEARFIELD PA-FULTON PA-SOMERSET PA-
522 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT BEDFORD...CAMBRIA...
SOMERSET...SOUTHWESTERN BLAIR...SOUTHWESTERN CLEARFIELD AND WESTERN
FULTON COUNTIES...

AT 518 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM
YOUNGWOOD TO GRANTSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE
STORMS...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND FILL POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. THE RAIN WILL CAUSE RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS. THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT SEVEN SPRINGS...WELLERSBURG...LAKE
GORDON...WESTMONT...COLVER AND BLUE KNOB STATE PARK.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...THE
PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 100 AND 166...I-70 BETWEEN
MILE MARKERS 147 AND 170...I-99 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 26.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...THE JOHNSTOWN
EXPRESSWAY...ROUTE 22...ROUTE 30...ROUTE 219...ROUTE 220...ROUTE
422...ROUTE 522...STATE ROAD 56.

LAT...LON 3972 7930 3988 7942 3990 7941 4009 7926
      4013 7918 4036 7900 4065 7884 4077 7881
      4083 7870 3980 7803 3972 7810

FORECASTER: COLBERT/LA CORTE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
540 PM EDT FRI JUN 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0502 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WINTERSTOWN             39.84N  76.61W
06/01/2012                   YORK               PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROOF BLOWN OFF HOUSE ON LIST ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1200092

MACH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
549 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

PAZ065-066-012215-
LANCASTER PA-YORK PA-
549 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL YORK AND NORTHERN
LANCASTER COUNTIES...

AT 544 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR EAST PROSPECT...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. VERY HEAVY RAIN
WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND
FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE RAIN WILL CAUSE RAPID RISES ON SMALL
STREAMS AND CREEKS. THIS STORM WILL AFFECT ROTHSVILLE...AKRON AND
ADAMSTOWN.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 276
AND 295.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...STATE HIGHWAY
283...ROUTE 30...ROUTE 222...ROUTE 322...STATE ROAD 501.

LAT...LON 3989 7643 4003 7658 4032 7615 4018 7593
      4017 7593

FORECASTER: RG/CR