Severe Thunderstorm Warning 208, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
955 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT. AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL FORM OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST AND
AMPLIFY AS IT APPROACHES PENNSYLVANIA...BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER
INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA LATE
MONDAY...BRINGING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE
COAST LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO CENTRAL PA THIS
EVENING...PRODUCING SCT TSRA WITH LOCALLY LG HAIL AND EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL. DP RADAR ESTIMATES OF OVER 10 INCHES ALONG THE
TIOGA/LYCOMING LINE PROBABLY A BIT OVERDONE DUE TO HAIL
CONTAMINATION. HOWEVER...FLASH FLOODING ONGOING IN THIS AREA AS
REPORTED BY 911 AT 01Z.

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO WANING LG
SCALE FORCING BEHIND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND ALSO LOSS OF
HEATING. HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHC OF A LINGERING TSRA
ALMOST TO DAWN ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES IN ASSOCIATION WITH DYING
COLD FRONT PUSHING THRU THE AREA. CLEARING SKIES...A CALM WIND AND
AMPLE LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT.
THE FOG WILL LIKELY BE DENSE IN THOSE LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAIN
THIS EVENING...MAINLY OVR THE NORTH. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKING
INTO NW PA SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL TO THE M50S UP THERE...WHILE
MOST OF CENTRAL PA BOTTOMS OUT IN THE L/M60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A WEAK HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BY LATE FRIDAY AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT INTO NEW YORK
STATE. SW FLOW AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN VERY WARM AND
SOMEWHAT HUMID CONDITIONS...ESP IN THE SOUTH WHERE TEMPS WILL TOP
OUT IN THE U80S TO LOWER 90S WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U60S TO
AROUND 70F.

HIGH TEMPS IN ALL AREAS FRIDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE 10-12F ABOVE
NORMAL.

GFS AND THE NEW NAM KEEP US DRY THRU THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS LOOKS
MORE REASONABLE THAN THE SMALL CHC POPS OF THE 09Z SREF.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS THICKEN UP WITH SHRA/TSRA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU OF NRN AND WRN PENN.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR COULD IMPACT AVIATION AND BE FELT ACRS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS THE SSW FLOW IN THE
1-2 KFT AGL LAYER STRENGTHENS TO 35-40 KTS.

DEEP LOW FCST TO DRAG A WARM FRONT...THEN A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA ON SAT. MODELS DO NOT CLOSE LOW OFF NOW...BUT STILL LOOKS WET.
SOME CHC OF STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE EAST LATE.
LESS CHC FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN NOW...AS SYSTEM DOES NOT CLOSE
OFF AND GO NEGATIVE. STILL WILL BE WET FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

RATHER STRONG UPPER LVL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY...
THUS EXPECT CU TO DEVELOP FAST...LIMIT MAX TEMPS...AND RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS. BASED ON THIS...LEFT CHC POPS IN...MORE IN
LINE WITH THE GFS...THAN THE NAM MODEL.

ON THE COOL SIDE FOR SAT ACROSS THE FAR WEST...AND THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO TUE AM...BUT NOTHING ABNORMAL FOR LATE AUG...
EARLY SEPT. TUE AM COULD BE AS COOL ACROSS THE SE...AS OTHER
AREAS.

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS. TOOK OUT SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT.

TUE AND WED LOOK DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER WV.

A SW FLOW FOR THU...BUT STILL DRY...AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL SHOWING MDT/LNS HANGING DOGGEDLY ONTO CIGS AROUND 3000'''BUT
I EXPECT THESE TO LIFT QUICKLY SO HAVE STARTED THE NEW TAF PACKAGE
OFF AS VFR AT ALL SITES.

THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WILL SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION BECOMING
THE THREAT WITH LOCALIZED RESTRICTIONS IN THE SHOWERS/STORMS AS
WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS IN STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. MOST LIKLEY AREAS TO SEE THIS SHOULD BE ALONG
NY...PA BORDER.

EXPECT MORE LATE NIGHT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR AFTER EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUD RESTRICTIONS.

SAT...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH THE APPROACH OF A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT.

SUN...MVFR EARLY...IMPROVING DURING THE DAY.

MON-TUE...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1247 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2012

PAZ004>006-037-071700-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-TIOGA-
1247 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ010>012-017>019-024>028-033>036-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066-071700-
ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE-
SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-SOMERSET-
BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-
SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-
DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
1247 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
825 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2012

PAZ037-070130-
TIOGA PA-
825 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL TIOGA COUNTY...

AT 821 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR LEONARD HARRISON STATE
PARK...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
THIS STORM WILL AFFECT LEONARD HARRISON STATE PARK...WELLSBORO...
COVINGTON AND OGDENSBURG.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 6...ROUTE 15...
STATE ROAD 14.

LAT...LON 4160 7687 4159 7688 4158 7692 4164 7757
      4182 7756 4184 7690

FORECASTER: MARTIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
848 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2012

PAZ041-042-046-053-070145-
COLUMBIA PA-NORTHERN LYCOMING PA-SOUTHERN LYCOMING PA-SULLIVAN PA-
848 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL COLUMBIA...
NORTHEASTERN LYCOMING AND SULLIVAN COUNTIES...

AT 845 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR RALSTON...MOVING EAST
AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
THIS STORM WILL AFFECT BARBOURS...SHUNK...KETTLE CREEK GORGE...EAGLES
MERE AND LAPORTE.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 15...ROUTE 220...
STATE ROAD 14...STATE ROAD 118.

LAT...LON 4156 7639 4121 7637 4134 7706 4155 7708
      4155 7697 4157 7693 4158 7661

FORECASTER: MARTIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1019 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2012

PAZ037-041-042-070245-
NORTHERN LYCOMING PA-SULLIVAN PA-TIOGA PA-
1019 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2012

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL
LYCOMING...NORTHWESTERN SULLIVAN AND EASTERN TIOGA COUNTIES...

AT 1014 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM
MANSFIELD TO BLOSSBURG TO OGDENSBURG...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE RAIN WILL CAUSE RAPID
RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS. THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT SHUNK AND
LINCOLN FALLS.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 6...STATE ROAD 14.

LAT...LON 4161 7687 4159 7676 4157 7654 4148 7656
      4155 7713 4169 7706 4186 7708 4188 7690

FORECASTER: GARTNER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1045 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2012

PAZ053-058-070315-
COLUMBIA PA-SCHUYLKILL PA-
1045 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT COLUMBIA AND NORTH CENTRAL
SCHUYLKILL COUNTIES...

AT 1039 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR ORANGEVILLE...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. THIS STORM WILL AFFECT ALMEDIA...MIFFLINVILLE...SHUMANS AND
SCOTCH VALLEY.

LAT...LON 4080 7623 4111 7653 4123 7634 4121 7631
      4114 7628 4114 7623 4114 7622 4103 7622
      4096 7621 4092 7608

FORECASTER: KF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1052 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2012

PAZ041-042-070330-
NORTHERN LYCOMING PA-SULLIVAN PA-
1052 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN LYCOMING AND
SULLIVAN COUNTIES...

AT 1047 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR LINCOLN FALLS...
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
THIS STORM WILL AFFECT LINCOLN FALLS...FORKSVILLE...EAGLES MERE AND
DUSHORE.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 220...STATE ROAD
14.

LAT...LON 4131 7630 4130 7631 4131 7641 4128 7645
      4130 7659 4148 7703 4157 7690 4159 7676
      4156 7631 4154 7621

FORECASTER: EVANEGO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1058 PM EDT THU SEP 06 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     HAIL             LOCK HAVEN              41.14N  77.45W
09/06/2012  M0.75 INCH       CLINTON            PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY-SIZED HAIL REPORTED IN LOCK HAVEN.

0430 PM     HAIL             STATE COLLEGE           40.79N  77.86W
09/06/2012  M0.70 INCH       CENTRE             PA   NWS EMPLOYEE

            SEVERAL REPORTS OF DIME-SIZED HAIL IN AND AROUND STATE
            COLLEGE.

0430 PM     HAIL             STATE COLLEGE           40.79N  77.86W
09/06/2012  M1.00 INCH       CENTRE             PA   NWS EMPLOYEE

            QUARTER-SIZED HAIL REPORTED ON NORTH ATHERTON STREET IN
            STATE COLLEGE.

0605 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 S MORRIS              41.59N  77.27W
09/06/2012                   TIOGA              PA   911 CALL CENTER

            ROCKSLIDE ON RT 287

0605 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 SW MORRIS             41.60N  77.34W
09/06/2012                   TIOGA              PA   911 CALL CENTER

            RT 414 CLOSED FLOODED

0605 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 S MORRIS              41.58N  77.27W
09/06/2012                   TIOGA              PA   911 CALL CENTER

            ROADS FLOODED

0655 PM     HAIL             PENNS CREEK             40.86N  77.07W
09/06/2012  M0.88 INCH       SNYDER             PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL-SIZED HAIL REPORTED IN PENNS CREEK.

1010 PM     HAIL             UNITYVILLE              41.23N  76.52W
09/06/2012  M0.70 INCH       LYCOMING           PA   PUBLIC

            DIME-SIZED HAIL REPORTED TO BE COVERING THE GROUND NEAR
            UNITYVILLE.

1047 PM     HAIL             ASBURY                  41.13N  76.34W
09/06/2012  M0.75 INCH       COLUMBIA           PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY-SIZED HAIL REPORTED IN ASBURY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1200416 CTP1200417 CTP1200418 CTP1200420 CTP1200421
CTP1200422 CTP1200419 CTP1200423 CTP1200424

EVANEGO