Severe Thunderstorm Warning 188, NWS State College, PA

855 
WWUS51 KCTP 092009
SVSCTP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
409 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

PAC023-035-081-105-092030-
/O.CON.KCTP.SV.W.0188.000000T0000Z-120809T2030Z/
CAMERON PA-POTTER PA-LYCOMING PA-CLINTON PA-
409 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN CLINTON...NORTHWESTERN LYCOMING...SOUTHEASTERN
POTTER AND EAST CENTRAL CAMERON COUNTIES...

AT 407 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ONE INCH DIAMETER
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR TAMARACK...OR 26 MILES NORTHWEST OF LOCK HAVEN...MOVING EAST AT
15 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
  RENOVO...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1 8 7 7 6 3 3 6 7 7 2.

&&

LAT...LON 4155 7760 4154 7760 4154 7752 4154 7751
      4133 7744 4126 7804 4145 7813 4157 7760
TIME...MOT...LOC 2009Z 256DEG 13KT 4140 7779

$$

FORECASTER: MARTIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
112 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...

WET AND STORMY WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES
OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...WITH FAIR WEATHER LIKELY
RETURNING TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

RADAR BECOMING ACTIVE NOW AS WE REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPS AND LOSE
OUR INHIBITION. THE REST OF THE DAY LOOKS ACTIVE WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS. SPC MESO PAGE SHOWS CAPES
EXCEEDING 2000J WITH IMPRESSIVE DOWNDRAFT CAPES OVER 1000J.

A VIGOROUS MID-UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL DIG SEWD FROM THE GR LAKES
AND AMPLIFY INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY FRI. THIS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING WARM MOIST ADVECTION FOR THE REST OF TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. IT WILL ALSO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SFC LOW THAT WILL HEAD TWD THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER...HELPING SWEEP
A COLD FRONT TWD WRN PA BY LATER TONIGHT.

IT ALL POINTS TO OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WE MAY SEE A LULL OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
AFTER WE LOSE HEATING...BUT OHIO VALLEY ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
FEED EAST INTO THE REGION FORCING THE CONTINUED MENTION OF PRECIP
WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM GUIDANCE FOCUSES BEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN MAINLY WEST
OF MY FCST AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...SO NO HEADLINES PLANNED
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...

AS THE UPPER OW CLOSES OFF OVER THE LOWER LAKES...EXPECT THE SFC
FRONT TO SLOW AS IT SLIDES INTO THE STATE. THIS WILL KEEP US
UNSETTLED AT THE VERY LEAST AS DEEP MOISTURE FEEDS NORTH OVER THE
REGION...AND EVEN SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
IN ANY CONVECTION THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP AND TRAIN OVER
PREVIOUSLY HIT AREAS.

IN ADDITION...THE ANOMALOUS SLY LLJ WILL ASSURE HI PWATS AHEAD
OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT...PROMOTING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
TSTMS. 65-70F DEWPOINTS IN THE WARM SECTOR AND DIABATIC WARMING
OUTSIDE OF CLOUDY AREAS WILL DESTABILIZE THE REGION. WHILE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...ADEQUATE VERTICAL
SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SVR THREAT WITH STORMS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN CVRG AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE STORMS
MAY BECOME MORE ORGANIZED/EVOLVE INTO LINES OR CLUSTERS...WITH THE
MAIN TSTM HAZARD BEING DMGG WINDS.

NEW SREF SHOWS AN INCREASE IN THE PROBABILITY OF 24-36 HOUR RAIN
TOTALS EXCEEDING ONE INCH. ALSO SHOWS MORE OF A 2+ INCH POTENTIAL
WHICH WAS ALMOST NON-EXISTENT IN THE PREVIOUS RUN. AS OF RIGHT NOW
THE AXIS OF BEST RAINFALL CHANCES ARE PAINTED PRETTY MUCH RIGHT
OVER CENTRAL PA.

MDLS ARE STILL SUGGESTING A SECONDARY FNTL WAVE OR WEAK TRIPLE PT
LOW MAY FORM OVR THE NRN MID-ATLC STATES IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT
FALLS AND UPPER JET DYNAMICS ROTATING AROUND THE SRN PERIPHERY OF
THE DEEP LOW. THIS COULD ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES OVR
SERN PA AND ALLOW FOR FURTHER STORM ORGANIZATION INTO BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS WITH EMBEDDED MESOS. THE SET-UP LOOKS SIMILAR TO A COLD
SEASON LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELL DAY. THE DY2 SLGT RISK WAS EXPANDED
WWD TO ENCOMPASS NEARLY ALL OF THE CWA AND THE CHANGE WILL BE
REFLECTED IN THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROAD CYC FLOW ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION SAT WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SCT SHOWER/ISOLD TSTM ACTIVITY. A DEFORMATION ZONE
SHOULD BRING WRAP-AROUND PCPN INTO THE NW MTNS ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE DEPARTING SYS. FURTHER S/E...A DRY SLOT PUNCH ASSOCD WITH MID
LVL JET MAY ALLOW FOR LIMITED/MARGINAL INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP IN
SIG CLOUD BREAKS TO TRIGGER ISOLD TSTMS OVR THE LWR SUSQ VLY/ERN
PA. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONTAL
ZONE AND BE ASSOCD MORE WITH FORCING TIED TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS. THE D3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK JUST CLIPS THE FAR SE
ZONES. THE COLD FRONT MAY SLOW ITS EWD PROGRESS WHICH MAY RESULT
IN HIER POPS ACRS SE PA...AT LEAST EARLY SAT. PCPN SHOULD COME TO
AN END SAT NGT AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO ACCELERATE NWD INTO
CANADA.

AFTER A SHORT-LIVED FLATTENING OF THE WESTERLIES...MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS IS FOR RENEWED TROUGHING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CONUS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ALL SITES ARE NOW VFR AFTER A BIT OF EARLY MORNING HAZE AND FOG.

REST OF THE DAY WILL FEATURE INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
AS WE CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE. SITES THAT COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR...OTHERWISE MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR INTO TONIGHT.

AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH VSBY AND
CIG REDUCTIONS LIKELY AT ALL AIRFIELDS INTO FRIDAY EVE.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN TSRA/SHRA.

SUN-TUE...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD STORMS POSSIBLE TUES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
459 AM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

PAZ005-006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049-050-
052-056-063-100900-
MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-
NORTHUMBERLAND-PERRY-CUMBERLAND-
459 AM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PAZ051-053-057-064-065-100900-
MONTOUR-COLUMBIA-DAUPHIN-ADAMS-YORK-
459 AM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PAZ004-100900-
WARREN-
459 AM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PAZ058-059-066-100900-
SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-LANCASTER-
459 AM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...BUT
THE PROBABILITY IS LOWER THAN FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
208 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

PAZ066-091845-
LANCASTER PA-
208 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN LANCASTER
COUNTY...

AT 205 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM TERRE
HILL TO CONOWINGO...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
IN ADDITION...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL OCCUR WITH THESE STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT GAP AND CHURCHTOWN.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 282
AND 295.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 30...ROUTE
222...ROUTE 322...STATE ROAD 41.

LAT...LON 3976 7627 4028 7614 4028 7608 4015 7588
      4013 7587 4011 7593 4004 7593 3996 7599
      3987 7598 3985 7601 3983 7601 3977 7606
      3972 7610 3972 7624

FORECASTER: MARTIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
214 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

PAZ026-034>036-091845-
BEDFORD PA-FRANKLIN PA-FULTON PA-HUNTINGDON PA-
214 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN BEDFORD...NORTHERN
FULTON...SOUTHWESTERN HUNTINGDON AND WEST CENTRAL FRANKLIN
COUNTIES...

AT 211 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR EVERETT...MOVING EAST
AT 10 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. RAIN WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS
AND FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE RAIN WILL CAUSE RAPID RISES ON
SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS. THIS STORM WILL AFFECT LOCUST
GROVE...CRYSTAL SPRINGS AND BREEZEWOOD.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...THE
PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 152 AND 185...I-70 BETWEEN
MILE MARKERS 147 AND 161.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 30...ROUTE
522.

LAT...LON 4031 7797 3999 7781 3979 7833 4011 7846

FORECASTER: LA CORTE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
224 PM EDT THU AUG 09 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CLERMONT                41.69N  78.49W
08/09/2012                   MCKEAN             PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON ROUTE 146

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1200387

HEAD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
227 PM EDT THU AUG 09 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 PM     TSTM WND DMG     KANE                    41.66N  78.81W
08/09/2012                   MCKEAN             PA   911 CALL CENTER

1245 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 S MOUNT JEWETT        41.68N  78.64W
08/09/2012                   MCKEAN             PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON HALSEY ROAD

0100 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CLERMONT                41.69N  78.49W
08/09/2012                   MCKEAN             PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON ROUTE 146

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1200388 CTP1200389 CTP1200387

HEAD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
237 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

PAZ006-010-011-091930-
CAMERON PA-ELK PA-POTTER PA-
237 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CAMERON...EAST CENTRAL ELK AND
SOUTHWESTERN POTTER COUNTIES...

AT 234 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR TRUMAN...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
THIS STORM WILL AFFECT TRUMAN...HICKS RUN...CAMERON AND STEVENSON
DAM.

THIS WILL IMPACT STATE ROAD 120.

LAT...LON 4167 7806 4148 7794 4147 7799 4145 7799
      4140 7799 4128 7844 4145 7855

FORECASTER: MARTIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
329 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

PAZ006-011-012-092000-
CAMERON PA-NORTHERN CLINTON PA-POTTER PA-
329 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN CLINTON...SOUTH
CENTRAL POTTER AND SOUTHEASTERN CAMERON COUNTIES...

AT 326 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR KETTLE CREEK STATE
PARK...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PENNY SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE
WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE RAIN WILL
CAUSE RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS. THIS STORM WILL AFFECT
TAMARACK AND CROSS FORK.

THIS WILL IMPACT STATE ROAD 120.

LAT...LON 4153 7773 4129 7759 4126 7807 4146 7814

FORECASTER: LA CORTE