Severe Thunderstorm Warning 174, NWS State College, PA

689 
WWUS51 KCTP 031824
SVSCTP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
224 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012

PAC001-133-031830-
/O.CON.KCTP.SV.W.0174.000000T0000Z-120803T1830Z/
ADAMS PA-YORK PA-
224 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM EDT
FOR WEST CENTRAL YORK AND NORTHEASTERN ADAMS COUNTIES...

AT 222 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR LAKE MEADE...OR 10 MILES WEST OF WEIGELSTOWN...MOVING NORTH AT
10 MPH.

LOCATIONS INCLUDED THE WARNING INCLUDE...

  WELLSVILLE...FRANKLINTOWN AND YORK SPRINGS.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 15...ROUTE 30...
STATE ROAD 94.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1 8 7 7 6 3 3 6 7 7 2.

&&

LAT...LON 3989 7713 4007 7714 4009 7712 4009 7689
      3989 7689
TIME...MOT...LOC 1824Z 179DEG 9KT 3998 7701

$$

FORECASTER: LA CORTE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
134 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER TODAY. A SOUTHWEST
FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR WILL DEVELOP FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

TEMPS AT 1PM ARE REMARKABLY HOMOGENEOUS IN THE MID 80S. DEWPOINTS
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NW TO LOW 70S OVER THE SE...WHERE
A COUPLE OF SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE POPPED UP...VERY SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS DAYS.

CAPES 2000-4000J AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 6C SUGGEST
WE COULD SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...BUT
IF PREVIOUS DAYS ARE AN INDICATOR...THE RIDGES OF THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST WILL PRESENT THE BEST OPPORTUNITIES. SO FAR CELLS HAVE
BEEN MOVING SLOWLY...ONLY ABOUT 5MPH. ANY STORMS THAT CAN MANAGE
TO SUSTAIN FOR MORE THAN AN HOUR OR SO COULD DROP SOME DECENT
RAINS.

ACTIVITY WILL WANE WITH THE LOSS OF THE SUN LEADING TO A MAINLY
DRY BUT HAZY OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE RATHER MUGGY IN THE 60S AND
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SAGGING SOUTH WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION
AND PROVIDE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
SATURDAY...AS IT BEGINS TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. SREF POPS
RANGE FROM CHANCE OVER THE NORTH TO CATEGORICAL OVER THE
SOUTH...PROBABLY TYPICALLY OVERDONE BY THE SREF. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WHICH ARE LIKELY TOO LOW...SO WILL EMPLOY A
BLEND...LEADING TO CHANCE NUMBERS MAINLY FOR THE AFTERNOON.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND MORE HUMID DAY...WITH HIGHS AVERAGING
IN THE 80S...TO LOWER 90S OVER SOME SERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RELATIVELY WARM DAY SATURDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MID-TROPOSPHERE. THE PW VALUES COMING UP WILL RESULT IN
HIGHER HUMIDITY AND SLOWLY INCREASING CHANCE OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

SUNDAY HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAINFALL AND STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS AS A RIBBON OF HIGH PW WITH VALUES 48 TO 52MM
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. PW ANOMALIES NEAR 3 SIGMA SUNDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS AND SHEAR. SREF
AND GEFS CAPE VALUES ARE IN THE 1200-1800JKG-1. THIS IMPLIES A
GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG CORES. THE 850 HPA
WINDS...FROM THE SOUTH...ARE 2-4 SIGMA ABOVE NORMAL. THUS THERE IS
GOOD LOW LEVEL BULK SHEAR WITH RESPECTABLE CAPE. ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS A GOOD BET. PUT GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IN GRIDS
FOR NOW.

BASED ON 850 HPA TEMPERATURES AND PW IN THE SREF/GEFS/GFS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS IS TYPICAL PROBABLY WILL
HAVE SOME HUMIDITY STUCK IN BOUNDARY LAYER MONDAY AM SO MOST AIR
CONDITIONERS WILL BE WORKING INTO MONDAY. BUT OVERALL LOWER PW AND
COOLER AIR. PW ANOMALIES DROP BELOW NORMAL MONDAY DURING THE DAY
WITH 850 HPA TEMPS IN THE 14C RANGE.

THE 06Z GEFS SHOWS PW VALUES AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO NEXT
SATURDAY! THE 850 HPA TEMPS STAY NEAR NORMAL IN THE MAINLY IN THE
MID-TEENS. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF ABOVE NORMAL 850 HPA TEMPS
PERHAPS ABOUT 1 SIGMA WED-THU. SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY SEASONAL WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

PATCHY FOG HAS THINNED OUT TO A HAZE WITH MDT STILL HOLDING IN
THE 3-5 MILE RANGE FOR VISIBILITY. THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL
BE HAZY AND BASICALLY FAIR WITH LOW END VFR/HIGH END MVFR VIZ
ISSUES IN SOME AREAS. WITH A WEAK FRONT STALLED OUT OVER THE
REGION...AND SOME RESPECTABLE INSTABILITY...A POP UP SHOWER OR
STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. CHANCES OF HAVING ONE HIT A SITE WILL
BE SMALL.

OUTLOOK...

.FRI...MAINLY VFR...BUT WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION POSSIBLY CAUSING
LOCALIZED REDUCED CONDITIONS.

.SAT-SUN...A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

.MON...CHC OF A SHOWER OR STORM EARLY...THEN MAINLY VFR.

.TUES...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR/MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
616 AM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-041030-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-
ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
616 AM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL ACCOMPANY A WARM FRONT AS IT PUSHES
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. SCATTERED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS SATURDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU OF
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG...TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FORM ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF A POTENT COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.