Small Craft Advisory 59, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1120 AM CST MON NOV 26 2012

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NICE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO COAHUILA LATE THIS MORNING...WITH CONVECTION ALREADY
ONGOING FROM SOUTHERN CHIHUAHUA TO NORTHERN COAHUILA. IT WOULD BE
NICE IF MOISTURE DEPTH WAS BETTER ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS...85H FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO VEER TO SOUTHWEST AND WEST INTO TONIGHT AND DEWPOINT
TEMPS ONLY REACH AROUND 10 DEGS C NEAR THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS INTO
COASTAL WATERS LATER TONIGHT. AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE
TODAY WITH STRONG WARMING EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE NOT IDEAL. MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY
THIS AFTERNOON...LOWERED HIGHS IN THE NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY A
FEW DEGREES. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT POPS FOR TONIGHT.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
FIELD MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. EXPECT CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH THIS EVENIGN AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. 0-6 KM SHEAR NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE BUT
CAPE VALUES WILL BE IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE FROM THE COASTAL
PLAINS INTO THE GULF WATERS. WILL CONTINUE WORDING OF STRONG
STORMS FOR TONIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE LAREDO AREA THISAFTERNOON
AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER MEXICO APPROACHES. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH LATER THIS EVENING OVER THE
EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS
BETWEEN 03Z-08Z TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL BE LIKELY WITH
THIS ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. THE COLD FRONT
LOCATED ALONG NEAR INTERSTATE 20 WILL ADVANCE SOUTH TONIGHT AND
MOVE INTO SOUTH TEXAS AROUND 05Z AT COTULLA AND BE SOUTH OF THE
REGION BY 10Z TUESDAY. EXPECT CEILINGS TO LIFT TO VFR CATEGORY
IN THE POST-FRONTAL REGIME ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS.

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    86  58  69  49  70  /  10  60  10  10  10
VICTORIA          83  51  66  44  68  /  10  70  10  10  10
LAREDO            88  58  71  53  73  /  20  30  10   0  10
ALICE             88  57  70  49  72  /  10  50  10   0  10
ROCKPORT          81  59  68  51  68  /  10  70  10  10  10
COTULLA           82  53  67  46  71  /  20  30  10   0  10
KINGSVILLE        87  59  70  48  71  /  10  60  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       83  60  69  55  68  /  10  60  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

TMT/89...SHORT-TERM/AVIATION

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1208 PM CST MON NOV 26 2012

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-271815-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
1208 PM CST MON NOV 26 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH NO WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...SOME STRONG
STORMS...PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS THURSDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND EACH AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER
SPOTTERS SHOULD KEEP INFORMED ON THE LATEST FORECASTS AND BE
PREPARED FOR REPORTING ANY STRONG STORMS TONIGHT.