Small Craft Advisory 57, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
403 AM CST MON NOV 12 2012

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...COLD FRONT HAS SAILED THROUGH
SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND AND GULF WATERS. THE DRY AIR HAS QUICKLY
FUNNELED INTO THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS ALL READY IN THE 20S AND 30S
OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. ANTICIPATE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE DRY AIR SURGES TO THE SOUTH...
WITH PW VALUES BELOW 0.75 INCHES BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT TODAY FROM THIS COLD FRONT. ANTICIPATE THE
WINDS TO PICK UP LATER THIS MORNING ONCE LOW LEVEL JET MIXES OUT
LEADING TO A BREEZY TO WINDY DAY. BELIEVE WINDS WILL JUST FALL SHY
OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE COASTAL BEND COUNTIES...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH THE MORNING. SKIES WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY...WITH COOLER TEMPS
EXPECTED. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER
WITH LOWER 70S ACROSS THE THE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COLDER THIS
UPCOMING NIGHT AS WELL WITH MOSTLY 40S ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS...AND
PERHAPS SOME UPPER 30S OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. FAST MOVING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP
HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN THE 60S ON TUESDAY. SOME GUIDANCE HINTING AT
LIGHT QPF ON TUESDAY...BUT CONCERNED ABOUT THE QUALITY OF MOISTURE
THERE WILL BE. DO NOT THINK A MENTIONABLE POP IS WARRANTED SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE MENTION OF SPRINKLES.

&&

.MARINE...SHORT TERM MODELS PROG 925 MB WINDS BETWEEN 30 AND 35
KNOTS OVER THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE GULF WATERS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS COUPLED WITH DECENT LAPSES RATES OVER THE WATERS
WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP. ANTICIPATE SOME
OF THESE STRONG WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE...WITH GUSTS TO 34
KNOTS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A GALE
WARNING FOR THE GULF WATERS THROUGH 20Z. SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
WINDING DOWN OVER THE BAYS AND WATERSWAYS AROUND 20Z AS WELL. SCA
CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE OVER THE GULF WATERS MONDAY EVENING
INTO TUESDAY FOR STRONG WINDS AND SEAS BETWEEN 7 AND 9 FEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE
CRITICAL RANGE TODAY COUPLED WITH THE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...FUEL DRYNESS MAPS INDICATE MOISTURE LEVELS ARE NORMAL
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. AS A RESULT...WILL BE ISSUING A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY.

&&

LONG-TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...COOL MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF THE WEEK AS AXIS OF SFC HIGH
REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS S TX. THE SFC HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA BY THE WEEKEND LEADING TO A MORE EAST TO SE WIND. MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE SUN
BREAKING THRU AT TIMES. TWEAKED MX TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES
FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED BUT STILL SHOW A GRADUAL WARMUP
AS THE AIRMASS MODIFIES. AS FOR RAIN CHCS...VERY LIGHT PRECIP WILL
EXIT THE AREA BY TUE NIGHT WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED WED/THU AS DRIER
MID LEVEL AIRMASS FILTERS ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT WITH PRECIP FOR FRI-SUN TIMEFRAME. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF
SOLNS ARE DRIER BUT STILL KEEP LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS WHERE WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DVLPS BY FRI. BOTH MODELS PROG
A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BE S OF TX AND TO MV E THRU THE
WEEKEND...THUS KEEPING MOISTURE VERY LIMITED. FOR CONSISTENCY
SAKE...KEPT THE POPS THRU THE WEEKEND FOR NOW. ALTHOUGH...IF THE
MODELS CONT THIS TREND...PRECIP MAY NEED TO BE REMOVED FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    72  46  69  51  72  /  10   0  10  10  10
VICTORIA          70  39  66  43  68  /   0   0  10  10  10
LAREDO            74  49  68  51  71  /  10   0  10  10  10
ALICE             73  45  66  48  72  /  10   0  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          74  47  69  52  69  /  10   0  10  10  10
COTULLA           72  43  64  45  68  /   0   0  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        72  46  68  49  71  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       73  54  68  56  69  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
     TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN
     BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT
     ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM
     BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O'CONNOR.

&&

TB/78...SHORT TERM
TE/81...LONG TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
610 AM CST SUN NOV 11 2012

TXZ229>234-239>247-121200-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
610 AM CST SUN NOV 11 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR NUECES AND KLEBERG COUNTIES
TODAY...WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 40 MPH AT TIMES.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT TONIGHT...ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 281.
A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG...WITH SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
UP TO 50 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-121200-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
610 AM CST SUN NOV 11 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS. THE WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG...PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

BEHIND THE FRONT STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WIND GUSTS NEAR
GALE FORCE WILL ALSO OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.